Ivan Labrie

Time@Mode analysis via Discord 💹| TradingView chartist | Called each cycle top and bottom in #BTC since 2015 in real time.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

10 years of timestamped calls.

Every link verifiable.

3 BTC cycles, equities, commodities, macro.

👇

[Dan 🐩🐩🐩 @danshep55]

I’m not an option Trader. However, the biggest thing to hit the active professional trader has been implementing two additional days in the week 0dte options . This makes the likely of an expansion day three times more likely for a stocks average true range. That’s exactly what we been seeing in the massive run up in equities in the last few months and now to the downside as well . Even if the expiration is for tomorrow. Today’s flow was massive.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@D2_Finance Burning some bridges but good to keep it real.

[Marc Zeller @Marczeller]

Take this as an opportunity

Migrate your funds from your EOA wallet to a 1/1 Safe (simpler and cheaper to move money than revoke plenty of approvals) you can put your EOA as the signer for now

Install @ambire wallet, using a safe with it and doing batch revoke is amazing, also natively support stuff like 7702 so you don't infinite approve stuff anymore.

If you don't own one, buy a hardware wallet, once you receive it, rotate the signer from your EOA to the HW wallet.

Every now and then, feel free to rotate and/or add signers from your safe.

It's not hard, it will make your life better and safer.

Do it today.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@edth2700 Inside job

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@felixprotocol @HypioHL Always solid execution gents, sadly y'all had bad luck with stables in this ecosystem. Best of luck with what's ahead.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

Laboratory Notes members get the mid-week update and exact levels. $29/mo, cards and crypto accepted.
https://t.co/698gTIgSoi

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

CPI Wed and PPI Thu print into a Fed blackout that runs through June 18. No Fed voice between the data and Warsh's first dot plot on the 17th. May NFP already flipped the curve from cuts to ~63% odds of a Dec hike; 2y at 4.147%, highest since Feb 2025. Data hits a tape repricing higher. Thread.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

Short BTC, short ETH. Spot fully de-risked to cash. Active stock book flat 6/5. Long-term book ~59% cash. Income side on the PMCSP model account and DeFi yield; ETH/BTC covered calls on Deribit, hedged delta-neutral. No reward playing hero into data-into-silence.

[GammaSwap @GammaSwapLabs]

✨Announcing the Transition from V1 to V2 ✨

TL;DR GammaSwap V1 proved AMMs could be used to provide option like exposure to hedge LP positions and create leverage. However, V1 was limited by the capital efficiency of spot AMMs with stale pricing leading to continuous adverse selection.

GammaSwap V2 will be a prediction market for financial assets combining a CLOB and an AMM. Betting on binary outcomes like will BTC be up or down in 5 minutes? Will BTC stay within a certain price range?

Why launch binary contracts on financial assets? They are the proven retail friendly interface for option trading. No greeks. No liquidations. Higher leverage than 0DTE options.

We can support the original mission of GammaSwap while targeting a larger potential user base.

GammaSwap will launch the order book exchange first to support short duration crypto markets, expand to other assets and then launch the AMM. The AMM will leverage the order book to provide real time pricing and support liquidity by quoting at unique strikes and durations.

More in the blog post below 👇

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@GammaSwapLabs Great stuff, looking forward to this!

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@chainbrain @0xRyzed I bot at $25 and sold over $70...not some random hater, but there's risk now that was not present before last Friday, look at $SPX and everything else, $BTC could have been leading the other risk assets on the way down...you never know.

[Better System Trader @bettersystrader]

Most system traders are looking for the one strategy that works everywhere. Dr Van Tharp says that's the wrong goal.

Markets behave differently at different times.

Sometimes they trend strongly...

Sometimes they range...

Sometimes extremely volatile, sometimes quiet.

A system optimized for a strong bull trend will underperform in a ranging market. A mean reversion system gets destroyed by a sustained directional move.

No single approach handles all conditions well.

Van identifies six distinct market types: bull normal, bull volatile, bear normal, bear volatile, sideways quiet, and sideways volatile.

Each requires a different approach.

Traders who force one system to work across all six typically end up with something that works adequately in none of them.

They over-optimize to reduce the pain in conditions the strategy wasn't built for, and in doing so, strip out whatever edge it had in the conditions it was.

His framework: don't build a universal system.

Build a set of systems matched to specific market environments, and trade the one that fits the current conditions.

Most traders never make this shift because they're still searching for the approach that works everywhere.

The traders who last longest accept that different markets need different tools.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@bettersystrader I've known of this for years but finally cracked it recently being able to code my own strategies and test them with help from AI.

[Ivan Labrie @ivan_labrie]

@pleyuh This guy is a sales person who somehow got elevated to Ethereum's only hope, it was bound to end badly.