Jonathan L.

Financial Markets, Geopolitics, Tech, Bookworm.

Information is my business.

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

I still remember the first time I saw this episode years ago. As I was laughing hysterically, I was also thinking, "omg, this is the story of my life". Jon Cryer at his finest:

https://t.co/tRgsOFtMz6

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@dave_brown24 @benoitfaucon @RobbieGramer @alexbward just in time as the futures markets begin to open

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

all nicely and conveniently wrapped up before the overseas oil and equities markets start opening up in a couple hours

[Clash Report @clashreport]

BREAKING: The U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt military strikes and will meet Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, to resolve tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials.

The talks, originally intended to focus on Iran's nuclear program, will instead center on ensuring safe commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials also plan to discuss implementing a direct military hotline between the U.S. and Iran to prevent future incidents.

Source: Axios

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

ROFL, how am I not surprised 🤣

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

NBC SAYS PENTAGON DELAYED ANNOUNCING IRAN STRIKES UNTIL AFTER MARKETS CLOSED

NBC reported that the Pentagon delayed publicly announcing U.S. strikes on Iran until after financial markets had closed.

According to the report, the timing was intended to reduce the immediate impact on financial markets, including oil prices.

The report has fueled political debate, but there has been no official confirmation that the delay was intended to manipulate oil prices or markets.

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@emptywheel @RapidResponse47 if Trump was owned by Qatar, the last 3 months wouldn't have happened. Tourism in the region is dead now. One of their LNG plants has been damaged and full output not expected to be restored for a few YEARS. The talking point that they own Trump is laughable at this point

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@WSJ basically making it clear that the US is done with this subject, and that they don't give a crap about the consequences of their actions

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@disclosetv Trump admin is realizing what a joke this deal is, and that a signing ceremony will just be a propaganda moment for Iran

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Putting aside the spin, here's what happened:

The US launched a war of choice against Iran. The purpose was to duplicate the recent success in Venezuela--decapitate the regime, empower new leaders who were willing to cut a deal, leave Iran weaker and more compliant.

Very quickly, it was clear that wasn't going to happen. Iran's leadership had planned for war, the mosaic defense allowed for rapid and resilient response, the regime quickly rallied around a hard core of IRGC/security leadership. A quick victory faded.

Instead, the war became attritional, which played to Iran's strengths. Iran closed the strait, attacked regional infrastructure, imposed costs and waited for the US to de-escalate and accept a negotiated settlement favorable to Iran. That was always the plan.

The US resisted. The goal shifted: military and economic pressure became a lever to force Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program. The administration considered high-risk operations, like seizing Kharg Island or raiding Isfahan to take Iran's HEU stockpile. In the end, the risks were never manageable. The US offered a ceasefire. Iran accepted.

There followed two months of negotiating and posturing. Both sides thought they had leverage. Both tried pressure via "dueling blockades." But Iran always had the advantage: it had already resisted the core US demands while under bombardment, the idea that it would yield under pressure and threats was never especially credible.

Iran had a simple task: resist and extract concessions for reopening the strait. The US lift was heavier: it was demanding major concessions, but lacked the tangible success in war to attain them. The US negotiating position had weakened relative to where it was before the war. Iran's had strengthened.

The deal both sides are moving toward reflects that dynamic. It is not a US surrender--the US is still the stronger power and it can absorb this war with relative ease, thanks to its vast resources--but it is far less than what the US had hoped to achieve.

Iran is not really walking away a winner--its losses since June 2025 are immense, albeit recoverable in time--but it has succeeded in resisting capitulation, and imposed enough costs to extract concessions in return.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir:

Trump's agreement does not bind us. Israel is not subject to the United States, and we are an independent and sovereign nation!

We emphasize: We love the USA and are grateful to President Trump. And yet, the State of Israel is not a banana republic.

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

In other words, we are in for five days of spin and exaggeration from both sides before we even see the thing.

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

now we wait to see the details, and how much leverage #Trump gave away

#IranWar‌ #IranDeal

[Raylan Givens @JewishWarrior13]

⭕ I don't understand what has changed in the 5 hours between Trump's first post and this one. Are we to believe that all issues were resolved in 5 hours, and even Israel is on board?!!

[vids that go hard @vidsthatgohard]

Anthony Bourdain died on this day eight years ago and him describing Waffle House is still the single-most important description of America that has ever been articulated.

[EndGameWW3 🇺🇸 @EndGameWW3]

I call bullshit...

Trump: Hezbollah contacted us and said, what do you think about stopping the fighting.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Wow. After speaking to several in the fighter jet community, it appears that this story is entirely legit. The F-15E pilot downed by a Chinese-made surface-to-air missile over Iran, who will remain for now unidentified, was indeed one of the F-15 pilots with the U.S. Air Force that was accidentally downed roughly a month earlier in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait. That has to be some kind of first, though either way, that pilot owes a lot to the ACES II Ejector Seat from Raytheon.

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@DerekJGrossman I was thinking the same thing. Would have been better off sending an object. A gold plated CPU with Trump's name etched in it maybe

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@sentdefender sounds like he's hearing the criticism

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@sentdefender @StevenCheung47 pretty sure that is his job

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

unfortunately this is a hollow victory. There's not a single #Republican or #Democratic Senator that lives paycheck to paycheck. Going a few weeks w/o a paycheck is MEANINGLESS to them.

#GovernmentShutdown

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Republican and Democratic senators unanimously adopted a resolution to suspend their pay during future government shutdowns https://t.co/OJ3ymTdMnZ

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

@EndGameWW3 the voices in his head

[Jonathan L. @j0nathan63]

uh-oh. Time to sell stocks

(not investment advise)

[Breaking911 @Breaking911]

TRUMP: Stock Market hit an ALL-TIME HIGH TODAY. Jobs & 401-K’s are BOOMING!!!