Riptide

The Documented Development of a Trader #TCT

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The average interest rate on a 30Y Mortgage in the US rises to 7.60%, the highest level since level since November 2023, per MND.

This officially puts mortgage rates up over +160 basis points since the low seen just 7 months ago.

Today's rates also have yet to account for the move into a fresh 24-year high on the US 30Y Note yield just now.

At this rate, 8% mortgages are just days away.

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@merlinb04 Keep it pushing twin

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@merlinb04 Looking at similar ideas here

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

History suggests volatility is ahead.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen ~55% of the time in September, making it the only month of the year when negative returns have occurred more often than positive returns.

Over this period, the average return of the index has been -1.1%, with an average drawdown of -4.7%.

Furthermore, the best September recorded a +14.4% gain, while the worst saw a -29.9% decline.

The weakness has historically been concentrated later in the month, with the second half of September averaging a -0.9% return, making it the weakest 2-week period of the year.

By comparison, the first half has seen an average decline of -0.2%.

September has historically been a weak month for US stocks.

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@lizas_mood Exactly!

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

$GBPNZD [update]

~8RR runner target hit.

I wasn't there for it.

Took 75% at TT and left 25% running. A weekend gap slipped through my BE before recovering in the same candle.

Thesis played out perfectly — couldn't capture it this time.

No rule change.

#TCT

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

$GBPNZD — Model 2 Accumulation

Clean setup confirmed during Warsh's speech, with HTF structure aligned

Management:
• 75% taken at the technical target
• 25% runner toward the HTF target
Good example of how I manage a LTF setup when it forms within favourable HTF context.
#TCT

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@Larskooistra_ Showtime🙏

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@PeterSchiff Yields are already increasing in anticipation of rate hikes which may reduce the need for one

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@tradingjip Do you let Fundamentals influence your plans or is it purely technical?

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@PeterSchiff >5% starts to squeeze equities despite outstanding ai performance

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

$EURJPY

Winning trade. Execution mistake.

Price reached ~70% of TT before hitting extreme demand. My rules required BE, but it occurred outside my execution window and I didn't manage it.

Price reversed, swept the high, then flushed through TT.

Outcome ≠ execution.

#TCT

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

@tradingjip Naked Low

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

7th September is US Labor Day so im expecting 8th September to bring a surge in volume, ending the Summer Lull.

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

$GBPNZD — Model 2 Accumulation

Clean setup confirmed during Warsh's speech, with HTF structure aligned

Management:
• 75% taken at the technical target
• 25% runner toward the HTF target
Good example of how I manage a LTF setup when it forms within favourable HTF context.
#TCT

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

Watching for the markets reaction here could be a pivotal day in this current equity bullrun.

Scenarios:
1. Beats expectations + strong reaction = bull continues
2. Beats expectations + muted market
reaction = bearish
3. Misses expectations = very bearish (unlikely)

#nvidia

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

How markets react to the Nvidia earnings on 26/08 will be crucial for the future direction of the stock market.

Current Fiscal Conditions: inflation ↑, oil ↑, yields ↑, DXY ↓.

AI earnings are the only thing holding markets up. Weak earnings/market reaction may = top

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

US30 - 1RR Loss

Brutal loss here after a textbook BOS. Shows that even A-quality trades can still lose. Do not let a clean loss cause another standards or management drift. Part of the game, move to the next one.
#tct

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

This trade again, despite hitting the full TP, was correct to not take as it didnt satisfy the entry requirements.

Trades like these are easy to feel FOMO about but over many repetitions, consistently taking these trades reduces your expectancy.

Process > Short term gain

#TCT

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

This can be particularly important during the summer lull, where major macro releases temporarily increase institutional participation and can improve the quality of auctions in the sessions that follow.

[Riptide @jacobriptide]

Big macro releases often affect the trading environment for the following 24-72hrs as large players (macro funds, CTAs etc.) rebalance their positions in response to the news.
This usually happens over hours or days, creating good opportunities in the following sessions.
#TCT