J Eric Webb

Economist, Historian, Cornell University, RE Projects, Stock & Options Trader, Former Pro-Skier, Surfer, Pragmatic optimist, Balanced visionary.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@grahamformaine Words of a grifter.

[Mike Benz @MikeBenzCyber]

You could give “the typical American” 11 MILLION years and they still would not create PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX, OpenAI, xAI, Neuralink, Boring Company, Ad Astra, all while single-handedly saving free speech for all mankind while lifting humanity out of the grip of Big Tech tyranny.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@voiceofrabbis Israel was carved out of the Ottoman Empire when it lost WWI, the British and UN established all of the countries in the Middle East. Israel does not represent Judaism because it is a secular country with ~75% Jewish, ~20% Muslim, ~2% Christian.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@DarrigoMelanie Providing products and services in high demand makes people wealthy. Using tax dollars to fill pockets vs helping those that are homeless is the moral failure.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@ewarren Providing products and services in demand makes people wealthy, welcome to America. Now can you focus on government not wasting our money.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

$SPCX: Thoughts on SpaceX IPO (typos corrected from pre-mkt post)
The company says its total addressable market is the largest “in human history,” at $28.5 Trillion. But this requires SpaceX to be thought of as a vertically integrated AI and connectivity infrastructure platform versus the rocket and satellite company which it is today.

The $28.5 Trillion TAM Breakdown is as follows
AI $26.5T: Enterprise Applications ($22.7T), AI infrastructure ($2.4T), consumer subscriptions ($760B), ads ($600B)
Connectivity $1.6T: StarLink Broadband ($870B) and Starlink Mobile ($740B)
Space $370B: Traditional launch services and space-enabled solutions

Elon Musk is the Thomas Edison of our generation and SpaceX also has no other comparable in the technology industry at this scale. But unfortunately, the SpaceX IPO valuation at ~90x CY25 revenues at a IPO price of $135 is priced as such. $TSLA, another Elon Musk company, is valued at 16x CY25 revenues as a comparison.

For those that think valuation does not matter given this is a long-term play, I would point to the $ARKK innovation ETF as a warning. Since its peak on 2/12/21 during the Meme stock mania through 6/11/26 (yesterday), it is down 51% including dividends.
$TSLA is up 47% during that time but the S&P is up 103% including dividends.

Revenue growth at SpaceX also slowed from 35% y/y in C24 ($14.0B) to 33% in C25 ($18.7B) to 15% ($4.7B) in the most recent quarter while the Net Income losses increased from $4.9B in C25 to $4.3B in just Q1:26. Free Cash Flow losses also increased from $14.0B in CY25 to $9.1B in just Q1:26 driven by capex increasing from $20.7B in CY25 to $10.1B in just Q1:26.

SpaceX says that multi-hundred-billion-dollar capital expenditures over the next five years will be required to build the infrastructure—specifically data centers and AI training capacity— to chase this theoretical market.

The stock market is clearly not responding well to
$GOOGL (down 6% in June month-to-date through 6/11) or $AMZN (down 11% in June mtd through 6/11) raising capital to chase this market or to $ORCL
results where capex guidance was higher than expected (down 18% in June mtd through 6/11 and 9% yesterday). $META’s stock is down 15% since raising capex and operating expenses on their Q1 results on April 29th vs the S&P up 4% through June 11th. Meanwhile, SpaceX will be pivoting their business to compete with the established hyperscalers above as well as enterprise software companies while currently not having a leading AI model.

In addition, I worry that the large sums of money that have already been raised by others in the equity market such as Google is reducing the amount of capital available to everyone else. Money looks infinite right up until it doesn’t. Between SpaceX, then Anthropic this fall followed potentially by OpenAI, there is likely to be $200B in capital raises this year through just these three IPOs. This will put to the test the liquidity available when 30 year treasury yields have reached levels last seen two decades ago.

As for SpaceX’s stock, I expect the stock to trade well initially given it is likely to be added to different indices soon after going public such as the Russell in 5 trading days, MSCI in 10 and Nasdaq100 in 15. This will result in a lot of forced buying by index funds. In addition, some “closet indexers” in the mutual fund community will market weight the name to avoid the tracking error relative to the indices that they are benchmarked against. After the initial 15 trading days, however, I think it gets a lot more dicey. While Elon always seems to deliver on his forecasts, they are rarely in the time frame initially envisioned. When you are doing things hardly anyone thought possible, this is understandable.

Currently the stock is trading at ~$180 in the perpetual futures contracts on Hyperliquid vs the $135 IPO price which already implied ~90x CY26 revenues. I believe the risk vs. reward is very poor at these valuation levels with capex ramping up once you get beyond the initial 15 trading days when it can be added to indices.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

A man working as a welder at SpaceX for $28 an hour has just become a millionaire.

Juan Hernandez, who came from Mexico, welded rockets for SpaceX at $28 an hour.

SpaceX gave him $10,000 in stock when he went full time in 2015, and he bought more with every paycheck for 10 years.

$SPCX is now trading at $167, making his shares worth over $1 million.

[Szymanski @Szymansk_ii]

Next time you think of giving up, remember this photo of Elon in 2008.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@AntiWokeMemes Me

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SPACEX JOINS U.S. MEGA-CAP RANKING

At a valuation of $2.12 trillion, SpaceX would rank among the largest U.S. companies:

🔸 Nvidia — $4.96T
🔸 Alphabet — $4.40T
🔸 Apple — $4.29T
🔸 Microsoft — $2.88T
🔸 Amazon — $2.54T
🔸 SpaceX — $2.12T
🔸 Broadcom — $1.80T
🔸 Meta — $1.44T
🔸 Tesla — $1.22T
🔸 Micron — $1.11T

[Gina Milan @ginamilan_]

The jury wasn’t all White — it included Asian, Hispanic, and Middle Eastern jurors. Just stop. We’re tired of the bullshit.

[Brandon Tatum @TheOfficerTatum]

I grew up hating white people, and the scary part is that millions of young Black men are being brainwashed into that exact same mindset today.

The education system feeds Black kids a steady diet of historical resentment until their undeveloped brains start picturing every single white person as the enemy.

Blaming the white man for modern community struggles is a trap that keeps people broke and angry.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@SenWarren Efficiency generates more efficiency, embrace AI and be a part of it or get left behind.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@SenAdamSchiff Slow to count generates suspicion.

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@ksorbs The ungrateful unite

[GRANDPA’s FREE ADVICE @GOP_is_Gutless]

🚨 BREAKING:

“Mrs. I would like to plead the Fifth 157 times.”

IRS records just exposed ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones — now under federal investigation — pulling in nearly $800,000 per year. That’s double what the last CEO made.

While running the Democrats’ massive dark money fundraising machine, she blew through:

• $3 million on security (complete with a personal bodyguard entourage)
• $5 million on luxury travel, including presidential suites at high-end hotels

Donor cash and taxpayer-scrutinized funds apparently funding an elite lifestyle at the top of the left’s political cash machine.

This is who’s steering the Democrat money pipeline.

What do you think? 👇
#ActBlue #DarkMoney #TaxpayerScam #AmericaFirst

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

@BillKristol level of CPI under Biden rose a total of 21.5%,
it came down to 2.7% for one period but the momentum was transferred to Trump, brought it down to 2.4% but since the Iran war began CPI has bumped up due predominantly to oil and its effect across other sectors

[Mila Joy @Milajoy]

Here is a list of all the Republicans that were arrested under Joe Biden:

Donald J. Trump
Waltine “Walt” Nauta
Carlos De Oliveira
Stephen K. Bannon
Peter K. Navarro
Thomas J. Barrack Jr.
Matthew Grimes
Rudy Giuliani
Mark Meadows
John Eastman
Scott Graham Hall
Robert David Cheeley
Harrison William Prescott Floyd
Shawn Still
David James Shafer
Cathleen “Cathy” Latham
Jeffrey Clark
Trevian C. Kutti
Shawn Meehan
Eileen Rice
Kathy Berden
Stephen Cliffgard Lee
Ray Stallings Smith III
Michael A. Roman
Misty Hampton
Kelli Ward
Tyler Bowyer
Nancy Cottle
Jacob “Jake” Hoffman
Anthony Kern
James Lamon
Robert Montgomery
Samuel Moorhead
Lorraine Pellegrino
Gregory Safsten
Michael Ward
Boris Epshteyn
Christina Bobb
Allen Weisselberg
Michael McDonald
Jesse Law
Jim DeGraffenreid
Durward James Hindle III
William “Hank” Choate
Kenneth Chesebro
Sidney Powell
Jenna Ellis

[Kevin Dalton @TheKevinDalton]

Newsom’s increases for California over the last 8 years:

Gasoline: +85%
Homelessness: +20%
Energy: +100%
Housing: +60%
Fraud: +500%
Gaslighting: +983%

[J Eric Webb @jamesericwebb]

It’s very important to understand this

[Jordan Schachtel @JordanSchachtel]

AI isn't a job-killer that the Doomers say it is. The opposite is true. It's the ultimate democratizer. It's a tool that distributes knowledge, capability, and opportunity to anyone with an internet connection. A kid in rural America can now access the world's best tutor, coder, and strategist in their pocket. That's simply unprecedented. This tool is creating the fairest and freest playing field in U.S. history

But if select powerful ideologues in the industry get their way with heavy regulation, "safety" bureaucracies, and deployment gatekeeping, this technology will become a CCP-adjacent tool for centralized power and elite control.

Distribute the knowledge. There is no need and no legitimate ethical or security reason to gatekeep it indefinitely. Free flowing AI for all Americans beats controlled AI for a new group of oligarchs.

America wins by unleashing AI, not by managing it into an elite hierarchy of privilege.