Matthew McConaughey cuts through the “do what you love” hype.
Sometimes the job sucks. Sometimes the relationship needs work. Sometimes you don’t feel like tending the fire you’ve been building for years.
But that doesn’t always mean it’s wrong, it might just mean it’s hard.
He says do the sweaty, bloody work anyway. Put out the small smoke before it becomes a blaze. Sacrifice today so you can sleep better tomorrow, still connected to who you set out to be.
Real life isn’t all passion. Sometimes it’s tending the garden even when you’d rather walk away.
I think it is now sinking in for many people, perhaps at the worst possible time for them, that yes Aussie propadee markets can in fact go down
For those ignorant to Aussie propadee history, prices actually fell and then went nowhere for 60 years from the late 1800s
It’s why you grandfather and great grandfather was probably a farmer and not a propadee course grifter or real estate agent
And we should all be thankful for that
SpaceX trades at 94x sales. Nearly 4x the next most expensive company on earth, and 27x more than Amazon.
Every other trillion-dollar tech giant earns a fat profit. SpaceX is the only one that loses money.
The market is asking you to pay the highest price in the room for the one company in it that earns nothing.
SpaceX IPO so perfect for right now. A company without profit, sold on a market detached from reality, based on fake promises about things it will never do. Layers and layers of bullshit.
Well, here's some math. Starlink is a profitable business with about $11 billion of sales and $3 billion of free cash flow. It might be worth $75 billion at a frisky multiple of 25X free cash flow.
The balance----the space launch business and the AI/data centers in space fantasy----has $7 billion of sales and NEGATIVE -$17 billion of free cash flow. So why is it worth anything, unless you are pricing a dream peddled by sell-side hucksters?!
In short, after trading up to $2 trillion based on $75 billion of tangible Starlink value, where's the remaining $1.925 trillion of it?
This isn't just the classical mania of the crowds. This is sui generis--- mass insanity in a casino that has been giving a lobotomy by three decades of money-printing madness at the Fed and its fellow-traveling central banks around the planet.
Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the SpaceX IPO:
"people gotta understand... [SpaceX] raised $75 billion... [and only] floated 5% of the stock... it's a very small float"
"[But its valuation], that's a different story"
"$1.7 trillion did not go to SpaceX. [It is] $75 billion. So people need to understand that"
"then when Anthropic and OpenAI, if they ever make it to IPO, they're going to raise about $100 billion each. So the total raised actual real money is about $300 billion between these three IPOs"
"Their valuations, that's a different story. And those probably won't hold and they'll probably, you know, go down 80%. So anybody buying these stocks at these prices is probably going to lose a lot of money if they hold on to them"
@ShannonJoyRadio@DowdEdward
Ben Affleck says actors have no job security because 130K people are in the actors union and only 30,000 work each year
"I got real cold and had a couple of movies that didn't work... all of a sudden it can be kind of over for you"
"there's no seniority, there's no tenure, there's no retirement. There's no gold watch"
"if your show doesn't work or your movie doesn't work and nobody wants to hire you, they're just gonna hire someone else"
"there's 130,000 people in SAG and there's only 30,000 people that work every year"
Just a friendly reminder before the SpaceX IPO tomorrow
The company doesn’t make money
Has revenue of <5% of Google
Priced about 50% of Google’s market cap
Do with this information what you will
A few years back there was a worldwide search for somewhere to deposit nuclear waste from decommissioning nuclear submarines. Nobody wanted waste of course, but now under AUKUS it seems that the US and UK may finally be able to dump the huge amount of waste in Australia.
As everyone watches the SpaceX IPO today, its worth remembering this advice from Buffett
"The idea that a newly issued security (IPO)—brought to market at a time of the seller's choosing and surrounded by massive hype—is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense.
When an offering carries a ridiculous 7% commission just to incentivize salespeople, it simply cannot be the most attractive investment available.
While people easily get caught up in the excitement of a new launch, look at the reality: you have thousands of existing public companies whose prices are set by a natural auction market, free from aggressive promotion or hidden fees.
It makes no sense to buy a security precisely when an insider decides the timing is perfect to sell. Frankly, it isn't worth spending five seconds thinking about IPOs."
- Warren Buffett