Trade 001: Sep 28
Today's trades:
RKLB sell 55P. Filled at 1.59 (Nov 20)
USO sell 180C. Filled at 4.00 (Nov 20)
HOOD sell 90P/165C strangle. Filled at 3.69 (Nov 20)
AAPL sell 305P. Filled at 2.52 (Nov 20)
Hypothesis:
Iran conflict resolution will make progress leading to the opening of the Strait and driving down oil prices.
Rocketlab is still going strong with launches catering to small/medium sized companies.
Crypto going up drives HOOD higher but keeps it range bound.
AAPL slightly down and IV is still decent for selling puts.
Wrong if: USO stays above 180, RKLB closes under 55, HOOD moves out of the 90 to 165 range, or AAPL drops under 305.
$RKLB $USO $HOOD $AAPL
Tech stocks are getting hammered yet again after yesterday's recovery. Bond prices are stabilizing, which is a good sign. Is the fear of AI spending really significant enough to justify this drop? The earnings for some of these companies tell a different story
Today's trade:
$GOOGL put at 305
$AXON call at 500
Adjustments:
Rolled $PANW put
@StephenCFU 💯 I just posted my losing MU from earlier this week. Losing is a part of the game and discipline to not revenge trader separates you from the crowd!
@valerijatrades1 But you don’t learn anything. Active trading forces you to be plugged in to the market and learn things you wouldn’t if you $VOO and chill
Another day, another selloff for semiconductors. Most trades still remain in red, management in progress.
Fear is increasing around AI debt, but is it over indexed and didn’t we see this in July? 🤔
Today’s trades.
Adjustments
$NBIS strangle roll down call
$INTC strangle roll down call
$HOOD strangle roll down call
$AMD strangle roll down call
$LRCX strangle roll down call
Exits
$MCD closed put credit spread for 50%
$TGT put closed for 50%
@LEAPTRADER_ Yes, hence having clear exit rules and sticking to it matters. Leaving these profits to squeeze out a few more dollars doesn’t make sense. You’d much rather take these profits and put on another trade.
This is so true. The current economic growth is based off forward contracts and projected revenue from the AI demand and datacenter buildout. If this growth halts, the difference between nominal GDP and inflation will increase eventually leading to lower real GDP growth. Policy makers usually try to maintain this at ~2%-3%. Dropping below 2% real GDP growth with increasing inflation risks the economy entering stagflation