Justin

Trying to bring Evidence-Based Investing to GenZ on TikTok | Boglehead & Factor Investor

[Justin @jclooce]

Just posted my first TikTok about the risk-free rate and stock returns 🙌🏼 trying to bring evidence-based finance content to GenZ, any feedback appreciated!

(pls don‘t rip me to shreds fintwit)
#finance #stocks #investing

[Justin @jclooce]

@choffstein Are you able to see how excess financing costs above SOFR have changed for bonds in the last few years? i.e this a temporary hatred of bonds and love for stocks, or more consistent pattern over time?

[Justin @jclooce]

@OptimizedPort @DeathStripMall and that during the highest term premium in the last 15 years

[Cliff Cornell @cliffcornell_]

Here are 4 different avenues to potentially mitigating capital gains tax.

[Jeff Weniger @JeffWeniger]

The Compound guys @michaelbatnick and @Downtown were talking S&P 500 equal-weight vs. the regular S&P 500. I have the chart. The mega-cap outperformance run has been going on for 11 years. The prior such run, back in the 1990s, lasted six years.

[TTI @TikTokInvestors]

We got 11 yr old course sellers now

[Justin @jclooce]

@RyanPKirlin An ETF’s in-kind creation/redemption mechanism is a permanent 1031 exchange

Maybe @ChrisCamillo should run his strategy in an ETF instead

[Ptuomov @ptuomov]

Those interested in German stock and bond returns early last century, the best guesstimates of German decade-level annualized real returns are:
-14% equities / -10% bonds for 1910–1920
-24% equities / -95% bonds for 1920–1930.

There's a separate lesson there is that if you rebalance to 60/40 stocks/long-term nominal bonds every month during a hyperinflation, then it's not going to work out for you.

[Justin @jclooce]

@ptuomov That’s my perception as well. But I’m not sure how different the financing rates are at different parts of the curve. And I am too scared of the left tail risks of leverage to lever the 2-year to sufficient duration/vol. I’m happy with the 5Y

[Justin @jclooce]

@ptuomov @Jesse_Livermore Big fan of @ElmWealth ‘s philosophy, get the important stuff right and stop worrying about everything else

[Justin @jclooce]

@bryanhasling @Jack_Raines Wow! Whats the implied market cap for Anthropic based on this?

[Justin @jclooce]

@OptimizedPort Agreed. Taking compensated risk builds wealth. And concentration certainly increases dispersion, but that risk isn’t compensated.

For young people that want to take risks to build wealth, maximum diversification combined with leverage is arguably a way better option.

[Justin @jclooce]

@RPC_20 @SowingAlphaSeed That spreads blow out during liquidity crunches as liquidity dries up. Lots of small wins most of the days but large losses during crises, right when it hurts most.

Very high excess kurtosis and left skewed return distribution. But fine if sized correctly.

[Justin @jclooce]

@SowingAlphaSeed @pawgmaxi The beta I am seeing is quite a bit higher, ~0.35 for $QDSIX and ~0 for $QRPIX.

https://t.co/qvkHqfeeeZ

[Justin @jclooce]

@choffstein @pansareV @EricBalchunas I’m seeing very different trends?

[Justin @jclooce]

@TheStalwart No, since the scores are not evenly distributed across the Y-axis. Even visually, a score of 5 is much more common than a score of 10 or 0.

You can still show this though! Just take the score from each day, and plot or calculate the percentile of the current score. Done

[Justin @jclooce]

@syouth1 @Rick_Ferri Sure, but if a majority underperforms, it makes more sense to me to use that exact percentage (as the adjusted study seems to) than just assume it is 100%?

I’m not entirely familiar with the SPIVA methodology though

[Justin @jclooce]

@pawgmaxi True. As a standalone fund QDSIX is wild.

As a diversifier for an equity+bond portfolio a pure high vol managed futures fund such QMHIX could be even better than QRPIX though. I personally hold those two.

[Justin @jclooce]

@pawgmaxi @SowingAlphaSeed Still a great all-in fund, I just prefer QRPIX personally. Not sure what you mean by ticky tacky, correlation should be entirely unrelated to vol.

Also at zero/negative market correlation and expected returns above rfr I want the highest vol I can get for a given expense ratio