JDP

TA notes

[JDP @JDan2411]

Pinning this

[Asaf Naamani @AsafNaamani]

MASTER YOURSELF

[JDP @JDan2411]

@AbcpokerBI @oguzerkan How is it broken?

[JDP @JDan2411]

“A good entry position gives you the confidence to hold long-term without being shaken by short-term volatility.”

[Ryker 🇯🇵 @Ryker_Crypto]

I am very bullish on $BTC in the long term, but for the short term, I need a solid entry point to buy.

A good entry position gives you the confidence to hold long-term without being shaken by short-term volatility.

Just look at the Global M2 index—it looks fantastic; Bitcoin will follow this index during the next bull run.

The plan remains the same: I’ll wait to buy Bitcoin at $44,000 and if it drops further, I’ll go all-in at $34,000

[JDP @JDan2411]

@hoodNate5 ME

[JDP @JDan2411]

$QXO

When a boring company looks exciting, it’s worth a look.

[JDP @JDan2411]

$FLY
Pulling back as expected.

Coincidentally, SPCX share unlock also happens just when it was a time for many space stocks to pull back.
Expecting a pull back to around $20-22. A LOT of confluence there. Macro .786 fib, gann arc, local VAL, and ofc a gap at 22.

Let’s watch

[JDP @JDan2411]

@AsymmetryLetter For sure a good place to buy

[JDP @JDan2411]

@AsafNaamani YES.

[JDP @JDan2411]

.

[The Analyst @MMatters22596]

Bookmark this.

Most investors get this wrong.

Here's how you actually effectively hedge against an overheated market:

The Key signal for when it's time to hedge is the VIX.
When the VIX enters the Sell Zone, it's time to reduce risk and rotate into safe heavens.

Below $15 is where you need to get cautious.

The mistake that most people make: If $VIX enters the sell zone, and prices tank, most people panic and go all cash.

This is the worst thing you can do.

In most cases, these selloffs are only smaller pullbacks in the market.
People who go to cash, usually do it to late, and miss the entry back in, when the market goes higher.

Here's what you actually need to do:

When the VIX enters the sell zone, we need to identify which sectors are overheated, and which sectors are going against the overall market.

Right now, AI-Infrastructure is by far the most overheated sector.
- This is where you need to reduce exposure.
Trim your positions, don't close them fully.

At the same time, rotate money into safe stocks that protect you against market volatility.
Only strong companies, that you would actually hold for the long-term.
- Insurance companies
- Cheap quality software stocks

That's how you reduce beta and stay protected on pullbacks, without reducing upside potential.

When I start rotating into Safe Havens, Patreon Members will be the first to know.

[JDP @JDan2411]

“You don't get paid more for being early. You get paid more for being right at the right price.”

[Mind Investor @mind1nvestor]

I think $WYFI is a $100 stock!

So why am I not buying it at $29?

Because being bullish doesn't mean you have to be impatient.

I think the market will offer a much better opportunity around $18, and I'm more than happy to sit on my hands until it does.

Most investors don't struggle with finding good stocks.

They struggle with waiting for good prices.

$29 → $100 is a great investment.

$18 → $100 is a completely different opportunity.

You don't get paid more for being early. You get paid more for being right at the right price.

[JDP @JDan2411]

Discovering Gann square completed my TA toolkit. That’s what got me survive the hell ride two weeks ago

[JDP @JDan2411]

In just two weeks, up 56% on $FLY from 17s to27.

50% profit taken at 26.5 as it’s a major resistance lvl.
But price is holding up remarkably well so far.

I’ll be a buyer if the price comes back to low 20s. But if it doesn’t, no problemo. Let it run.

Stay grounded.

[JDP @JDan2411]

In just two weeks, up 56% on $FLY from 17s to27.

50% profit taken at 26.5 as it’s a major resistance lvl.
But price is holding up remarkably well so far.

I’ll be a buyer if the price comes back to low 20s. But if it doesn’t, no problemo. Let it run.

Stay grounded.

[JDP @JDan2411]

$FLY

“could this hold.?” I ask myself as I shit my pants.

18s or lower idc.. ill be buying

[JDP @JDan2411]

$FLY

This week the price went up to the macro 61.8 level @ $26.7 and now back into the 25s.

Love to see the strength in this name. 🙏 Remember, the fear was at an ATH level just two weeks ago. This moment is a reminder that there’s always light after dark. Stay grounded

[JDP @JDan2411]

@nanalyzetweets 😂😂

[JDP @JDan2411]

Love to see $FLY fly. My biggest holding atm.
But now it’s at a gann arc resistance. Expecting a healthy pull back from here. Could make another leg down to flush out the retail one last time. Ima ride it till the end. We’ll see where we are at the end of year

[JDP @JDan2411]

@EchoAnalysis 🙋🙋🙋

[JDP @JDan2411]

$FLY

[The Analyst @the_analyst_24]

$FLY (Firefly Aerospace) Deep Dive Analysis 🌌

Here is the breakdown of Firefly’s transition into a full-ecosystem space giant.

1️⃣ Company Intro & Tech
Firefly is an end-to-end space & defense company covering launch, lunar landers, orbital vehicles, and AI defense software.

Shareholders:
Instis (~60%), Retail (~25%), Founders/Insiders (~15%). Short Quote: ~4.5% (Low squeeze risk).

Past to Future:
Scaled rapidly from a private R&D startup into a heavily backed public entity executing major NASA and U.S. Space Force contracts.

Technology:
Alpha (Responsive Launch), Blue Ghost (Lunar Lander), Elytra (Orbital Maneuverability), SciTec (Defense Software & Data).

2️⃣ Product & Current Developments
Alpha: Flight 7 successfully launched for Lockheed Martin.
Flight 8 is currently in the integration and test phase.
Blue Ghost: Mission 2 assembly is underway, scaling up with a new cleanroom 4x the size to enable a growing lunar production line.
SciTec: Secured a $109M Space Force FORGE award for AI-enabled missile warning and tracking architecture.
Elytra: Collaborating with NVIDIA for the Ocula Moon imaging service and moved into the build phase for DIU Sinequone.

3️⃣ Valuation Snapshot
Market Cap: $3.33B
EV: ~$3.03BNet Debt (ohne Leasing / ex-leases): -$299.4M (Highly robust, net-cash positive position)
LTM EBITDA: -$341M (Reflective of heavy R&D and scale-up phase)

4️⃣ Earnings Snapshot (Q1 2026)
Revenue: $80.9M (+45% YoY from $55.9M in Q1 2025, and +40% QoQ).

2026 Outlook: Guiding for $420M - $450M Annual Revenue.

EPS beat consensus by 4.8%, highlighting disciplined cost management even as production aggressively scales.

5️⃣ Peer Group Comparison vs. Rocket Lab $RKLB ): While both excel in small-to-medium launch, Firefly has a distinct, aggressive focus on lunar infrastructure (Blue Ghost) and integrated defense software (SciTec).vs.

SpaceX $SPCX : Firefly specifically captures the dedicated, tactically responsive payloads and specialized orbital deliveries that large rideshare missions cannot effectively serve.

6️⃣ Forecast 2030 & Valuation2030
Projections: Assuming a strong CAGR driven by Artemis Moon Base phases, revenue is modeled to approach $1.4B–$1.5B.

2030 EBITDA: ~$300M (Targeting ~20% margins as fixed launch costs are absorbed by scale).

Valuation: Applying a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple yields an implied EV of $4.5B, offering solid long-term upside from current levels.

7️⃣ Acquisition Potential
High. Defense primes like Lockheed Martin (already an Alpha customer) or Northrop Grumman could view $FLY as a highly strategic bolt-on acquisition to instantly secure responsive launch capabilities and lunar surface access without decades of internal R&D.

8️⃣ Catalysts in Next 6-12 Months
-Alpha Flight 8 launch.
-Blue Ghost Mission 2 completion and payload integration.
-Structural qualification testing for Elytra. Additional Space Force Golden Dome milestone deliveries.

9️⃣ Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
NASA's Artemis Moon Base Phase 1 & 2 represents a $20B expected budget pool. Increasing DoD demand for tactically responsive space (like the VICTUS DIEM exercise).

Risks:
The capital-intensive nature of hardware scale-up, potential launch anomalies, and heavy reliance on fixed-price government contracts.

🔟 Conclusion
$FLY is rapidly evolving from a developmental rocket builder into a diversified aerospace prime contractor. With a cash-rich balance sheet, negative net debt, and massive 45% YoY revenue growth, it is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the next decade of the lunar economy and defense modernization.

Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Always do your own DD.

#FireflyAerospace #FLY #SpaceStock #SpaceEconomy #StockMarket #Investing #EquityResearch #DefenseTech #LunarEconomy #Artemis #SpaceX #RocketLab #SmallSat

[JDP @JDan2411]

@aliwantasnkrs @aleabitoreddit This

[JDP @JDan2411]

Everything about him feels AI

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: It's been revealed Leopold Aschenbrenner’s $45,000,000,000.00 AI fund began collapsing just as guests arrived for his wedding in California.

[JDP @JDan2411]

@EchoAnalysis Phew just speechless and grateful. There are few very good channels on X but none are like u.

[JDP @JDan2411]

Nice to see $FLY get back into 19s after yesterday’s drop to 17s. But I think 16 and even 13 are still on the cards over the next few months