Jeff

Usually right on finance, wrong on politics.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

A dip in the token price index can imply the scenarios mentioned in this post. OR it can also imply that tokens are being produced more efficiently.

Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness outlined 3 sources of progress towards AGI/ASI. 1) compute (more GPUs). 2) algorithmic efficiency (more tokens per watt or $). 3) Unhobbling (smarter use of the intelligence to actually solve problems).

From 2019-2024 we witnessed 1-2 orders of magnitude (!) improvement in just algorithmic efficiency. Aschenbrenner forecasted a 0.25-0.75 ANNUAL continued improvement in efficiency between 2023-2027.

Falling token prices are a well understood phenomena, expected to continue, and contrary to Burry's post, a signal of strength for the AI thesis. Falling costs per tokens is ESSENTIAL to achieving AGI, the intelligence explosion, and superintelligence, because the end-goal is VERY long running tasks, weeks, months, years, of exploratory hypothesizing and problem solving. Per token costs should fall from dollars, to dimes, to pennies.

The metric that matters most is the RoI hyperscalers/neoclouds are earning on their equipment. So far, H100s which should be obsolete by now (released in 2022 with an expected 4-year useful life), are seeing rental rates INCREASE as demand for intelligence explodes.

The key thing that Burry ignores is that AI is as dumb today as it will ever be, and it's more capable than most outside of software engineers realize. How much demand will there be for tokens when you can spool up a marketing agent that manages your entire company's $100M marketing budget, decreasing CAC by 50%, and saving the salaries too? It will run autonomously 24/7 exploring opportunities, tracking results, and optimizing ads.

Yea, that's going to require a few more memory chips. buckle up.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@EhrmantrautCap_ This you?

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@SawyerMerritt That's 4x the number of 2-seater coupes sold in 2025, but I'm pretty psyched for the cybercab.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@alp_xbt Masterfully planned unless they care about trust and reputation.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@FutureAZA The market sees 480k cars sold. I see 480k additional robotaxis waiting for the switch to flip.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@WagieCapital This isn't cattle futures. We're on track for AGI in 2027.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@evrgn11112231 Lord, please also give him the smarts and capability of Zuckerberg. We have enough overconfident pricks.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@aussieflya @grok You don't think 51% of tenants would want to buy their unit at around $55k each? Serious question, I have no idea.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@kimmonismus We're on track for drop-in remote workers in 2027 and that's when shit hits the fan.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@KalleM54431272 @wholemars He doesn’t understand that a car that generates $100k/year of gross profit is worth more than $30k.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@Tesla Hey @grok, based on this, how far away do you think we are from a full launch?

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@mhp_guy I can't help but feel like you're just trying to mock Europe right now.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@brockpierson Imagination Network!

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@mikepat711 The thing I care most about, which I'm sure we won't learn, is how much revenue robotaxis are earning per month. A very important unknown for modeling.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@Yuchenj_UW From the perspective of Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness, this is an instant 0.5 OOM efficiency gain. We're on track for AGI in 2027. 🤯

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@AlternateJones Since the S1, the two deals $SPCX signed with Anthropic and Google have increased revenue by ~2.5x. So one more double and they're there.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

I'm the anti-Farzad. I think we'll see model Ys produced with no steering wheels or pedals, and we'll see conversion kits for existing model Ys.

The economics of turning the entire rolling stock of HW4 vehicles into cash cows is too great to resist, and it increases the market value of new and used teslas.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

@nypost I'm not an AOC fan, but this is not what she said and this is shameful reporting.

[Jeff @jeffborack]

So far, the biggest surprise of 2026 is how much I miss stack overflow.