ethan

qualitative driven, investing in universal necessities.
managing a high conviction, highly concentrated portfolio $RBLX $DUOL $HIMS

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

Roblox - the biggest social entertainment giant the world will come to recognise in the next decade $RBLX

The investment case is built around 3 qualitative insights, leading to a future most haven't envisioned:

- RBLX has social platform TAM. They monopolise a unique social mechanic, serve a distinct user intent among top 10 platforms on earth (RBLX at no.9 with 144m DAU)
- This social mechanic combined with their formative age userbase, produces identity level retention, which tends to persist for 10-20 years. The retention will surprise, monetisation has not even begun to materialise.
- AI compresses idea-to-production, exponentially expanding ecosystem content and supercharging their network effect. Abundance pushes value to the deployment & distribution layer, and RBLX holds the best accrual position in the world.

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

https://t.co/ygKl8PJW1n

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@notthreadguy somebody tldr, what happened?

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@mkkkmoo @riddle245 wym the real days, without tech that would’ve been a false yellow might even be a false red. that’s just wrong.

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@riddle245 nah even the casuals can spot this one, dumb af behaviour from no.7 the coach had to be fuming

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@Sai_s_destiny Thanks mate!!

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

modern deep value isn’t finding cigar butts, but having deep insights to discover value where consensus is wrong. Such opportunities arise amidst great uncertainties and change.

$DUOL is down -80%, at 10x EV/FCF, priced for structural decline and permanent AI disruption. However my conviction is the opposite, the investment case walks through:

- Duolingo’s fundamental value proposition the market misunderstands
- Their monopolistic position and moat in the AI consumer era the market misjudges
- 3 variant perceptions the market misprices

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

https://t.co/ENsVdIYJR5

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

https://t.co/ENsVdIYJR5

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

bring me Morgan Stanley

[scar @imfat]

You’re offered 6M to do a single line of coke, wyd??

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

England players at the world cup are all boner pilled, and you think peptides aren't coming home? $HIMS

[Hims House @himshouse]

🚨 NEEDHAM ANALYST RYAN MACDONALD: PEPTIDES COULD BE A $30+ BILLION MARKET

AND $HIMS IS POSITIONED TO WIN A BIG SHARE

This is most thorough deep-dive we've done on the business side of peptides:

We discuss the latest peptide news, how the FDA / PCAC process actually works, the size of the peptide opportunity, $HIMS' potential share, the Novo partnership, branded vs compounded economics, short interest, competition, valuation, and more. 🔥

01:58 - FDA briefing document breakdown
04:15 - The timeline of peptide approval
09:50 - Category 1 vs 503A Bulks List
11:34 - When will telehealths start to sell peptides?
14:25 - Sizing the peptide market
19:31 - Hims’ peptide share
21:55 - Peptide pricing & margins
24:45 - Peptides likely a 2027 revenue story
29:58 - Hims-Novo deal check-in
32:11 - Branded vs compounded GLP-1s margins
35:27 - Pills vs injectables
40:43 - International
42:04 - Hims' moat
46:22 - 2030 targets and valuation models
50:32 - Shorts, insiders, and catalysts

Not financial, medical, or legal advice

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

you cannot hold a static view of $RBLX just like people trashing youtube algos all the time. the algorithm change now surfaces more quality content and creators are noticing @DavidBaszucki well played

[Evanbear1 @EvanZir]

https://t.co/vL8hFGkwAY

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@TJ_Research @grok 这球连摄像机都在最清晰的角度捕捉到了，还有啥问AI的，它不看球。 干净拦截，断球权，没有出腿，红方重心往前走绊倒。和你防守队员没有出手意图被球踢到手臂不是手球同理。

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@daaniyaan memecoin mate, forgot the memecoin drop

[Palantir @PalantirTech]

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on what customers actually want, the real business of frontier labs, and the importance of open source models:

“What the technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha. They want to know they own the means of production, and it's not being transferred to someone else.”

"Who owns the data? Are the prompts secure? Is this being transferred to you?"

"If it was so valuable, and I can make you a billion dollars, wouldn't I say I'll make you a billion dollars and I want 30%? Why are they charging for tokens if it's so valuable?"

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

Roblox fooking summer 🌺

[cyberprince @cyberprince_rwo]

In case you are wondering why $RBLX is up massively.

User numbers are way higher Monday morning already compare to yesterday and Sunday numbers were much higher than last Sunday.

The amount of new games getting traction not seen here is real, too.

Roblox fucking summer.

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@cyberprince_rwo Roblox fuckong summer

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@rasmr_eth @buyerofponzi yes $RBLX https://t.co/OKe8wPjhiR

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

Roblox - the biggest social entertainment giant the world will come to recognise in the next decade $RBLX

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@JackPrescottX banger

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@NealGardner_ Lmfao the socaroos is cringe af anyway, lmfao

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

there’ll be multi billion businesses out of $RBLX

[Ho Nam @honam]

This is the second @Roblox developer we’ve backed. Versework is the largest Roblox studio in Asia (our first investment was in Sweden). There will unicorns and perhaps decacorns born out of the $RBLX ecosystem.
https://t.co/0Lf4PvJvyN

[ethan @jesyoungfa]

@cyberprince_rwo at the end of the day no one can borrow conviction, you hold what you believe