0xJH

Buji DAO // macro and defi specialist

[0xJH @jhdegen]

/1. Day beau report - 2023 Macro Economy Outlook
Happy New Year to all of you, I wish everyone a wonderful year ahead.
https://t.co/0SsJkDX836
Key macro trends as follow:

[Avid @Av1dlive]

Don't waste 2 years learning to build LLMs like Claude & ChatGPT.

Stanford just dropped a 2 hour 34 min course on how to build LLMs from scratch.

• 00:00 - LLM tokenization
• 25:44 - how LLMs decode user prompts
• 35:40 - training pipeline of LLMs
• 1:16:47 - LLM architecture from scratch

Anthropic pays $750,000/year to engineers who understand this exact knowledge of LLMs.

Bookmark this & give 2 hours today, no matter what. Then read the article below.

[Caedrel @Caedrel]

🏆CAEDREL MSI GIVEAWAY 2026🏆

13 PRIZES FROM SIGNED JERSEYS, TO SECRETLAB CHAIRS TO A $3000 PC

🌐Worldwide🌐

CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO ENTER SUPER EASY JUST FOLLOW THE STEPSSSSSSSS

https://t.co/YWYrV2gOVb

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

https://t.co/7l7Jef99QZ

[CG @cgtwts]

Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini users right now:

[Nate.Google @Nate_Google_]

probably the most valuable channel to learn everything Claude

[Movez @0xMovez]

Run a Simulation before placing your next Polymarket bet - Сode included.

The Monte Carlo method is hyped across Polymarket Quants right now.

But only a few knows how to apply it correctly to different situations on PM to run a simulation based on it.

Run these 4 simulations before placing your next bet:

> Sequential Monte Carlo simulation

Used for dynamic simulation when a market has several parameters, and each of them can affect the result

• Logit random walk formula:

logit(xₜ) = logit(xₜ₋₁) + εₜ, where εₜ ~ N(0, σ²_process)

//

> Tail events simulation

Tail events - events with very low probability, and they’re hard to simulate reliably.

However, you can’t ignore them.

• Formula for estimating a tail event probability:

p̂_IS = (1/N) Σ_{i=1..N} 1{X_i ∈ A} · w(X_i), with X_i ~ Q

//

> Correlated markets outcomes simulation:

Tail dependence: markets co-move much more in extremes than correlation implies.

• Upper tail dependence formula:
λ_U = limit as u → 1⁻ of P(Y > FY⁻¹(u) | X > FX⁻¹(u))

• Lower tail dependence formula:
λ_L = limit as u → 0⁺ of P(Y ≤ FY⁻¹(u) | X ≤ FX⁻¹(u))

//

> Agent-Based simulation

Prediction markets have different agents: informed traders, noise traders, market makers, and bots.

Despite irrational traders, prices still tend to converge to fair value over time.

Run an agent-based simulation to filter out agent-driven noise.

Read the full article to learn how to run your first prediction-market simulation in a few simple steps.

[gemchanger @gemchange_ltd]

https://t.co/YbXzSpFE31

[Shepherd Capital Markets @ShepherdCapital]

大家都应该停下所有的分析去看这个采访。
这种大师分享的知识比分析有意义。
就好比字面他说他喜欢大家讨厌的板块，越讨厌他conviction越高。这不是一个黑白的思考，是一个衡量市场是不是在往对他有利的方向倾斜的一种思考。
大师果然是大师。

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Wise words from a true genius

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

2025 is going to be a wild year.

Today, Apollo published their list of biggest market risks for 2025.

Between potential Fed rate HIKES, a recession in China, and a 40% chance of the 10Y note yield at 5.0%, 2025 will be volatile.

Here's a breakdown of their risks.

(a thread)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening in China?

Just days ago, China announced MASSIVE economic stimulus as their economy crashed.

Now, retail investors are piling into stocks like pandemic-era stimulus is back.

Something is seriously wrong in China and it's too late for stimulus.

(a thread)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

China is panicking.

In fact, China is showing 2008-like signs as they are on the brink of a severe recession.

Over the last 2 days, China has begun Pandemic-level stimulus, as seen during lockdowns in 2020.

Is China dragging the global economy into a recession?

(a thread)

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Burry's investment one sheet

worth reading for any investor

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/4

The market is pricing a 66% of a 50 basis point cut.

But the overwhelming majority of economists expect 25.

This is an unprecedented divergence.

[加密韋馱｜Skanda 🔶 @thecryptoskanda]

【开源镰刀13 - 玩转撸毛党，空投收割设计指南 (免费版)】
空投是Crypto行业历史最悠久也是最有效的营销手段，从17年ICO时代就已经以”糖果“的方式开始。其最初是对于Web2诸如”砍一刀“等补贴引流手法的模仿。

但你知道吗，作为整个crypto圈参与面最广的活动，空投本身就是一种变体资金盘思路。今天就来教大家如何用空投收割 - 空投三型模型

首先，你需要理解你设计空投的诉求 (即”三型“)
这取决于你怎么定义你的空投，一般有以下几种思路:
- 为了做数据给VC和交易所看 （从VC搞钱或交易所上币)
- 为了给IDO和上币做流量 (从一级二级散户参与搞钱)
- 为了从空投的过程中牟利 (从羊毛党身上搞钱)

你的诉求可以是以上一种或几种的混合。但不管哪种，括号里的内容才是重点。���项目都是为搞钱，但你需要理解从谁身上搞，也就是受众是谁

根据诉求，倒推盘型和方案
以终为始，知道自己要什么，就知道自己怎么做:

1) 为了做数据给VC和交易所看
收益 = VC和交易所给的利益(投资+上币流动性) - 实际空投成本

用一个空投噱头来以小博大。这意味着你需要尽可能的扩大空投参与人数以换取最好的数据给VC/交易所看, 但是尽可能不真的发真金白银出去。

这好比一个羊毛出在🐖身上🐂和🐢买单，涉及三方的复杂互助盘。大量撸毛党参与互助但入金这个事宜时机上是由VC和交易所完成，最终空投的代币还需要找二级散户接盘。

另外这类空投还有一个隐含需求，就是在筹码分布因上所等因素��严控的情况下，为自己和利益相关方藏筹码老鼠仓。在这个诉求下，更需要尽可能扩大空投参与基数以及空投活动的维度。浑水才能摸鱼。

因此走这个路线，如果融资和上所的流程尚未完成，就必须延长空投活动继续PUA。同时要严格反女巫，控制实际拨出比。具体示例见收费版

空投总比例设计公式 = $空投实际预计拨比/上线时FDV + 老鼠仓硬性要求比例。前者

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Since the 1920s, If the S&P 500 rises in the 3 months leading up to an election the incumbent President has won 87% of the time

Since 1984: 100% of the time

[Humanity @Humanityprot]

🌐 Join the waitlist for the Humanity Protocol Testnet now!

1⃣ Visit https://t.co/P4gO7OV7eV
2⃣Sign up
3⃣Follow @Humanityprot on Twitter and join our Telegram https://t.co/yRiffRwOyx
4️⃣Refer friends to ascend the ranks for early access & bigger rewards!

#HumanityProtocol

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model.

Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple characters with vibrant emotions.

https://t.co/YYpOAcrXQ3

Prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/11

For a day and a half, the narrative around inflation has been desperate to tear down the January CPI report.

I believe this is wrong, and the economy is "no landing," and inflation has already bottomed (or very close to it) around 3% to 4%.

This is a problem for the bond market as it suggests that the neutral funds rate is 4% to 5% (explained below). This means the Fed has not broken anything and is not that restrictive, which is why the economy is "no landing," and inflation is sticking around 3%.

A long-ish contrarian🧵to explain and push back against the consensus thinking.