Story & Memory

This account logs news, thoughts and interests for worlds and markets.

[Story & Memory @jimseattle2010]

US dollar is bouncing back. DXY is going up from 99.6 to 102, and may touch 103 or higher in May.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Can something as obscure as a 30-year cycle in commodities really matter? Decide for yourself. But, um, so far, so good. @sentimentrader

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

The Mannarino Market Risk Indicator: Confirming what, I think, we can all sense...

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

Want to know what I think of the US Dollar?

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Hyperscaler earnings will explode post-2028.

Here is why:

Their combined backlog currently stands at ~$2 trillion.

Almost 50% of this will convert over the next 12-24 months. This capacity will be renewed at materially higher prices as current rental rates are way above their contractual rates and they keep rising.

Combine this with volume growth and we’ll be looking at continued sales momentum post-2028 with expanding margins.

Given that capex growth will also decline to 10% levels in 2028, we’ll literally see free cash flows skyrocket.

How can you be bearish?

$AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $ORCL

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Microsoft's Q2 revenues increased 18% over the last year to a new record high of $90 billion. Net Income grew 31% YoY to a new Q2 record of $36 billion. Azure and cloud services revenue increased 43% YoY, beating estimates and surpassing $100 billion for the first time. $MSFT

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

JPMorgan Launches Dollar Deposit Token On Coinbase's Base Network https://t.co/5gtSBawAOo

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Crypto vs Nasdaq

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Some context:

1GW energy = enough power for 750,000 homes
1GW data center = $50-$60BN in capex spend
1GW = 500,000 GPUs

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is the definition of broken:

In 15 days, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025, yet the 30Y Treasury Yield is now near 5.00%.

We have RISING interest rates as markets "price-in" Fed interest rate CUTS.

Do you realize what's happening?

(a thread)

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

If the dollar does lose some of its supremacy premium, while global earnings are converging on US earnings and non-US valuations are lower than in the US, it should provide a good backdrop for a prolonged period of mean reversion between US and non-US equities.

The two charts below show just how important the currency component can be for investing globally. That’s especially the case for emerging markets, where the USD-based EM index (solid blue) has vastly outperformed the local currency index (dotted line) over the past 25 years. In local currency terms, the MSCI EM index is where the S&P 500 was in the year 2000.

For EAFE (non-US developed), that currency difference is much less. For me, that makes EAFE an easier region to say yes to than EM. Either way, the momentum curves in both charts suggest that the long-awaited mean reversion is upon us.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

While the year-over-year growth rate in trailing earnings seems to have peaked at 10%, margins continue to move higher and are now 13.1% (for the MSCI US index). It’s an impressive performance several months into a new tariff regime, and it goes a long way to explain why valuations have rebounded so swiftly.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

7% of S&P 500 members at a new 52-week high

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

As of June 27, only 66 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks were above their own 100MAs, with the index at new highs. But remember, a divergence is a condition, not a signal, and sometimes a divergence can get rehabilitated.

[Patrick Karim @badcharts1]

Silver’s "make-or-break" moment.

Price is heading straight for that rising line...

If it holds, this could be the last lower-risk entry area before the rush toward $40.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Monetary policy continues to diverge, with the Fed on hold and both the ECB and SNB recently easing. Following this week’s FOMC meeting we have a new dot plot which is leaning slightly less dovish. The range of opinions among FOMC members remains quite broad (so take it with a grain of salt), but there is a clear consensus that several rate cuts are in order in the coming months. If the neutral rate is inflation plus 100 bps and the 2-year change in the core-PCE is 2.7%, then neutral would be 3.7%. That’s 3 rate cuts from here.
Note in the above chart that the money supply’s share of GDP has fully roundtripped from before the pandemic to now. In the past I have shown that nominal M2 is already back at the all-time high of $23T as an example of fiscal dominance overtaking monetary policy, but it’s the growth in money relative to the economy that’s the more important indicator. On that front, it doesn’t look like the Fed is behind the curve on either side of the policy spectrum.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

The daily chart below suggests a rising wedge for the S&P 500 index, amid a negative divergence between price and breadth. While we did get a breadth thrust in April, there has been no follow through since then. The market has narrowed again with only half of the stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their various moving averages.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Tesla $TSLA just released this updated video of its Optimus humanoid robot

[Barchart @Barchart]

Nearly 50% of Fund Managers say Gold is overvalued, the most in history 🚨🚨🚨

[Barchart @Barchart]

JP Morgan Insider Trading Alert 🚨

Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum just dumped $10 million worth of $JPM shares