Jason Pipkin

science, but mainly politics

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@Fritschner very sad to report the actual quote is "He's, uh, got a very, uh, person I've known for a long time" and is most likely just referring obliquely to the bride to be

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@DjsokeSpeaking he's looking at Cook PVI and not realizing that PVI +6 means Rs are expected to get 56% of the two-party vote.

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@SeanTrende @ksusys the market's view is at least internally consistent on that front, as the margin of victory market median is Talarico by 9 atm

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

On Insider Trading.

Some say insider information can make prediction markets more accurate. But the same argument can be made for stock markets, where insider trading is banned.

Insider trading erodes trust. When people believe a market is unfair, they stop trading. Liquidity dries up, volume collapses, and the market dies. Also, allowing it could incentivize bad actors to leak information they shouldn’t.

So Kalshi bans insider trading.

How do we police it?

Just like stock markets. We spent years building a market surveillance system similar to those used by the NYSE and Nasdaq:

1. Detect: Our surveillance system (called Poirot, after the French detective) flags suspicious patterns in real-time by running trades through pattern recognition models. Insider trades stand out because they often are weird and are bigger in size: people don’t usually commit fraud for $25.

2. Investigate: We have a market regulation team that conducts investigations. They review KYC data, funding sources, prior trading history, and trade rationale. They contact traders when needed.

3. Enforce: If we find wrongdoing, penalties range from warnings and fines, to referrals to the CFTC (and sometimes DOJ) for civil/criminal prosecution.

Transparency helps.

All activity on Kalshi is public. We also report it to the CFTC daily. Because of that, our traders help by sending us whistleblower tips. To those traders, I know some of you are frustrated that we don't tell you what happens after you send a tip. I get the frustration. Legally, we need to keep our investigations private – but please know your help is super valuable.

In the past year, we ran over 200 investigations and froze relevant accounts. Of these, over a dozen have become active cases and several have been referred to law enforcement.

Today we go further:

1. Wharton Forensics Lab: We’re bringing Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab Director Daniel Taylor, one of the premier forensics experts in the country, to advise us. He will help us investigate intricate "cousin of the spouse of the dude at Tesla" insider cases.

2. Brian Nelson: We’re adding Brian, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, to counsel us on financial compliance and market integrity.

3. Surveillance Audit Committee: We’re forming an independent committee of market integrity experts like Lisa Pinheiro to provide quarterly reports to Brian and publish relevant statistics.

4. System upgrades: We're partnering with Solidus Labs. Their institutional-grade behavior monitoring and pattern recognition tools will be added to our systems.

5. Robert DeNault as Head of Enforcement: Bobby is a force of nature and a self-professed financial crime nerd. He was a white-collar criminal attorney and spent law school studying presidential investigations and the Panama Papers. He’s also a great guy - we love Bobby.

All industries have bad actors and no system is perfect, Kalshi's included. But we are committed to improving daily. Lots of work ahead!

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@elwasson @jasonyaworske there was another, I believe in biden era, when they waited for the House to vote the next morning and never declared a shutdown

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@GaetenD pretty easy twist to see coming tbh

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@OldBullTV @PredictIt January 2017 were the first I think. on Obama's farewell address and Trump's inaugural

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@AsteadWH not too surprising but in my experience as a PM trader, the traders who do understand the "why" are much more successful. depth of understanding pays both for the participants and probably for the people who consume the odds as part of their media diet

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@MattZeitlin https://t.co/eobT9q3eTQ

[Dj @DjsokeSpeaking]

We're in "election day turnout dynamics will decide this" territory

[Luana Lopes Lara @luanalopeslara]

Just the beginning. Thank you from the bottom of my heart to the incredible Kalshi family, you made this happen ♥️

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Kalshi raised $1B at an $11B valuation.

A decade ago, only a few thousand people knew what a prediction market was.

Eighteen months ago, most prediction markets were banned - until we overcame the government to set them free.

Over the past seven years, our community has opened up an entirely new category.

Today, Kalshi is trusted, used, and loved by millions of people. It’s a part of everyday culture, and it’s driving one of the most important shifts in consumer behavior in recent history.

The time has finally come for prediction markets to achieve their full potential and we are intent on making that happen.

To all the believers and the early adopters: thank you.

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@GaetenD it's wild how early the insider flow showed up. over a week ago

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@DatJustinGuyTho @talkofthecharts @HITSDD

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@GaetenD wait until you discover the Joni Ernst paradox

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@LanceupperPI @Kalshi in this case, the CBS WH correspondent said on-air that all three were present (source: me listening). dunno if that has come online yet to verify but it should be enough.

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@mattyglesias this may be a stretch, but reading between the lines of his language today on this it seems like it's intended to be a kind of one-upsmanship of Putin and Russia's WWII day

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@GaetenD I honestly haven't checked (saw the news a bit ago) but is it on spotify? I know donda2 was on tidal or whatever

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@IsaacDovere that woman is very amusing in the sense that you can tell Karoline hates her (bc she is auditioning for Karoline's job)

[Jason Pipkin @jipkin]

@haleytalbotcnn @aishahhasnie some elite crossed-wrist dual-wielding happening in the bottom left