David Greenberg

Prior career in foreign affairs, mostly in SE Asia. Individual investor. Sharing trades to welcome feedback/ideas, but nothing I say is investment advice.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

I appreciate this line from @nntaleb: "Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don't have—in their portfolio." I'll post summaries of my write-ups. They aren't recommendations, just a record of my reasons for my trades.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@Divergent7651 I would recommend your friend subscribe to the WSJ & read articles relating to current events. Or go to a bookstore and browse to see what author's voice/tone resonates for him. (Lynch is very readable & great for a novice, altho his examples are a bit stale.)

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@FaustFund @Divergent7651 I agree w/ you, @FaustFund. See attached. I look at what BRK bought & may research to buy directly, I don't need to own stocks thru BRK. I wldn't invest in BRK for exposure to its cash. I'm not drawn to its insurance biz. I don't feel I need exposure to BRK's private cos.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@realroseceline When I invest, I know my analysis could be wrong. Even if my original analysis is correct, business conditions (& valuation) change. So it makes sense to monitor quarterly updates w/ an open mind, welcoming data that may confirm/disprove my beliefs. (FYI, I don't follow NOW.)

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@sidecarcap I wld respectfully suggest that focusing narrowly on capital-raising modalities is insufficient. Interest rates & the stock price may make borrowing wiser than share issuance or vice versa. Much depends on the use of capital & if the co will later rebuy shares (undo dilution).

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@iancassel Interesting; I don't disagree that transparency can hurt a stock's valuation by dampening hopes. But this may imply the higher valuation (in the absence of transparency) would be based on unrealistic expectations, and eventually reality would cause a reevaluation & sell-off.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@EddyElfenbein The divergence is particularly striking given how much overlap there is between the top components of the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500. NVDA, AAPL, GOOG (both classes combined), MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, TSLA, MU are in the top 10 of both, with heavy weighting.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@Coffee__Capital On Feb 3, I bought $BMI, seemingly beaten down because of "SAASpocalypse." Soon after, I bought $BR, then $QLYS, also seemingly victims of investor fear about cos with software as part of their biz. Since then, 1 up, 2 down; at least not strongly correlated.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@Coffee__Capital @Coffee__Capital: interesting; since I try to diversify within sectors, I've sometimes compared how my stocks perform, although usually with stock price charts rather than whatever tool you used to calculate the correlation. Attached: FDS-ADBE (bolstering your point).

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@ACapitalLP BTW, in 2025 I bought $CDRE; the founder/CEO (Kanders) previously built & sold a similar company, altho he now also leads yet another company that has been crushed. Summary attached. I saw ICE funding as a big catalyst (hasn't yet been). I have a loss but am holding patiently.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@ACapitalLP Understood, and I hope TIC works out well for you if you buy. When I did my brief glance, AI told me that the Franklin family is locked in for at least five years; I didn't dive into details, but looks like it is indeed a longer-term setup than I think you normally look for.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@realroseceline I've attached an AI summary of the relevant part

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@realroseceline P.S. People interested in debating ROIC might want to listen to this interview: https://t.co/WzoEsaA43W

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@remington00 It's fair to see covered call selling as "cost mitigation" instead of "reducing downside risk." My key point is that I'm willing to sacrifice upside, my goal's to minimize pain while I harvest my tax loss w/o abandoning OEC.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

On Thursday, I bought more Orion SA ( $OEC ), despite the company appearing to be stuck in a "debt trap." I'm a bit stubborn and don't want to give up on the company, but I also feel I should realize my paper loss on my old shares & get the tax benefit while I await recovery.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@remington00 Interestingly, though, OEC specialty-segment margins have fallen so they now are very close to margins in the (more commodity-like) rubber segment. That was not the case when I first started buying OEC, as the two tables attached show.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@taobanker I don't know what fits your portfolio and standards best, but I prefer met coal to thermal. My only met coal stock is METC (Ramaco). It got much attention as a rare earth play, but their coal ops look good to me. Note they survived the 2010s when many others went bankrupt.

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@Coffee__Capital @realroseceline @jposhaughnessy PS: On AMZN, I'm unsure of your timeframe, but I think it's key to distinguish b/w pre-AWS and post-AWS. (I declined to buy when looking at AMZN pre-AWS & making up my mind that it was a retail company. I stopped watching, missed how AWS transformed it.)

[David Greenberg @jktadave]

@Coffee__Capital @realroseceline Coffee Cap: I agree w/ many of your points, especially that there's no single 'silver bullet' metric.

Decades ago I read an edition of @jposhaughnessy’s 'What Works on Wall Street' that imparted that low P/S had the most predictive value for superior future returns.