Joe Dwyer

Founding Partner Dwyer Lab and @manifold_group. Venture. Web3. AI. Startups. MBA professor @KelloggSchool - my site:

[MacCallister Higgins @macjshiggins]

I’m at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV and am looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a golden retriever looks forward to a car ride:

- thrilled to be involved
- no clue how cars work
- unsure if going to the park or getting neutered

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

I just told Claude Code not to stress about a mistake because it was my fault.

“Appreciate that - I’m good”

This is only going to get more weird.

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

hey @Uber why is it so hard to report security issues in your @UberEats app? Attempted hijack of my account, with full order and phone number (meaning someone at the restaurant / your team was complicit). Scammer ended up threatening violence when I called him out.

[Anand Kannappan @anandnk24]

People are misreading the SpaceX/Cursor deal as an M&A story. It’s actually a bet on what the real bottleneck in frontier coding models is.

xAI has struggled to close the gap with Claude Code and Codex. Cursor sits on the best corpus of developer traces in the world. The deal lets Cursor train Composer on Colossus while xAI runs the same recipe on Grok. Both sides find out, at the same time, whether Cursor's data is actually the difference.

The option structure reflects that uncertainty. If the training work ports over, SpaceX buys Cursor and owns the pipeline. If it doesn’t, they pay $10B for the experiment and walk. Either outcome, Grok ends up stronger than it would have been, and xAI gets an answer to a question it couldn’t answer internally.

The part worth holding onto: a pre-IPO company just priced a live experiment to figure out whether real developer traces are the scarce input in coding agents. $10B is what they’re paying to run it. $60B is what the answer is worth if it comes back yes.

[Jessica Nutt @JessicaNutt96]

Mythos is not a bad name for a model but it would be better if Anthropic switched to using famous Claudes. Monet, Debussy etc. The final model that achieves AGI would obviously be Van Damme

[staysaasy @staysaasy]

Friends outside of tech: lol copilot is dumb

Friends in tech: I just bought iodine tablets and have made an offer on land upstate. My supplies of antibiotics and potable water are sufficient but I need to set up hydroponics to make it through the first few years.

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@Bquittem @LynAldenContact I really enjoyed it as well. Great story / characters / pacing, all played out in a very interesting sci-fi context.

[Latest in space @latestinspace]

NEW DETAILS 🚨: NASA astronaut Mike Fincke who suffered a mysterious ‘medical emergency’ on the ISS earlier this year was prepping for a spacewalk when he suddenly lost the ability to speak

It lasted about 20 minutes and then he was completely fine

Doctors have ruled out a stroke/heart attack but still have no explanation

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

Just experienced the first instance where an agent I built (with AI help) diagnosed a problem with its own code and suggested a fix.

Hold on to your hats people.

[Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin @jasonlk]

My take on California’s “One-Time” Billionaire Tax. It’s much worse than it looks.

📉 Will it pass? Yes, likely.

It only needs 50%+1 voter approval. SEIU + CTA have done this before—Prop 55 won 63% in 2016.

⚖️ Will it get tied up in litigation?

Almost certainly. Retroactive wealth tax on a tax type CA has never had = due process challenges. Billionaires have the legal budgets for years of fights.

👋 But it’s clearly … only the start. The goal is an annual tax, not one-time. And the target is $25m-50m net worth folks, including illiquid foldings (early stage founders raising a Series B).

The “one-time” framing is strategic, not terminal.

The same coalition (CTA, CFT, SEIU) already has AB 259 written—an >annual< 1% wealth tax at a >$50M threshold<, with plans to go to $25M. It’s been introduced 3 years running.

The one-time tax removes the constitutional barrier. Once that’s gone, the annual version becomes a much easier ballot measure.

🔃 CA Policy Center said: “If SEIU hopes to keep Medi-Cal spending growing, it may need to place repeated wealth taxes on the ballot—potentially lowering the threshold as billionaires flee.”

The real risk for founders:

At $1B, you’re taxing ~200 people. At $50M, you’re taxing 23,000 households—including most successful founders on paper before any liquidity event.

The rational move isn’t to leave when you hit the threshold. It’s to leave—or never incorporate in CA—before you get anywhere close.

✈️ Net net: it will make sense to leave before the Series B.

Vinod Khosla nailed it: “Even people who don’t expect this initiative to pass are still planning to leave because there will be another one.”

The one-time tax is the constitutional Trojan horse. The annual tax — at a much lower threshold — is already waiting inside.

[Tim Urban @waitbutwhy]

For Christmas I want a printout of all the posts that have shown up right as I open X that disappear forever after half a second when the page refreshes

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

Might need to include “massive” and “insane” too

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

Is there a way to filter out all posts that include “literally?” (“This guy literally built a ….”).

Almost always useless content. And almost always an improper use of the word.

[Daniel @nearlydaniel]

My life got a lot better when I realized that small talk is just a TCP handshake for humans

Skipping either will result in bad data transfer

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@Matt_Pinner Mildred (“Mimi”)

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@cursor_ai How do prompt this to get it to work? I've got it all enabled, but my agent can't (or won't) see the page content, take screenshots, etc. Is there documentation for this somewhere I didn't see?

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@jessethanley This is insane

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@fortelabs This really resonated with me

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@SinaHartung That’s cool.

[Joe Dwyer @joedwy]

@Scobleizer @sama @IllusionOfLife @kevinafischer This was super interesting and thought provoking. Thank you for the work you do.