John Bratsakis

Mostly here for the baseball.

[Yakyu Cosmopolitan @yakyucosmo]

The Roki Sasaki situation is complicated. It’s the giant elephant of the offseason.

Here is my nuanced input, starting with the basics, referring to @JballAllen’s reporting.

First and foremost, I have maintained that a posting is possible, though it would be a very dark day for NPB. That doesn’t mean it will or won’t happen. Unlikely ≠ impossible.

👉 How did Sasaki get here?

Four teams nominated Sasaki in the 2019 NPB Draft. The Lotte Marines won the lottery for his rights. A month later, Sasaki reached a contract agreement with the team. Notably, he was the latest of all 2019 draftees to sign.

👉 Does Sasaki going to MLB before turning 25 make sense?

From a financial standpoint, the answer is a resounding no. Due to MLB’s international bonus pool restrictions, Sasaki would effectively earn league-minimum, and Lotte would receive scraps as a posting fee.

In comparison, Yoshinobu Yamamoto made $325 million and his club, the Orix Buffaloes, received about $50 million in posting fees.

But money clearly isn’t the only factor to consider and Scott Boras isn’t his agent. If Sasaki has dreamed of pitching in MLB for years, has friends stateside, and feels he is ready, the move makes sense from his perspective.

👉 Has Sasaki “earned” a posting?

I push back on the idea that he is “selfish” for desiring a posting. From a talent perspective, he’s clearly good enough, and we have no idea of what goes on behind the scenes.

A player demanding a transfer when he is yet to pitch a full healthy season certainly looks questionable. But what if Lotte had agreed to post him, in principle, regardless of performance, and walked back on their promise? There are power dynamics at play and we have too little information to speculate.

But, in general, he has not “earned” a posting when compared to other NPB stars who won individual awards and titles before going to MLB. Sasaki has 394.2 career innings, a handful of playoff starts, and of course, a 19-strikeout perfect game.

👉 Could there be a clause in his contract?

NPB has many verbal agreements, which former players like Yu Darvish have talked about. If Sasaki asked for a posting clause when he was drafted, it was presumably a gentlemen’s agreement, considering that his reported posting request was denied last offseason.

Lotte agreeing to something at the time is plausible given that the alternative was to lose their prized first round draft pick. NPB has no draft compensation for unsigned players, and Sasaki could have threatened to skip NPB or to re-enter the draft in 2020 to sign with a team that will actually agree to post him.

However, that doesn’t inherently mean a written clause can’t exist. NPB contracts are almost exclusively one-year deals. Players re-negotiate figures each offseason. Sasaki held out to just days before spring training this January. Nobody knows the nature of the concessions made, if any, or if new criteria were put in place to enable a posting.

👉 Why are all the reports coming from the US?

Many Japanese fans will correctly point out that anything that is not reported on by major media or the club itself is merely a rumor. Indeed, most of what is coming from American journalists is pure speculation or overblown for clicks.

But that doesn’t mean it’s all fake news. Japanese mainstream media will rarely report on anything until it is truly official. This maintains good faith with the team and gets them access. Japanese tabloids, while notoriously unreliable, will often be the ones to break major stories.

Sasaki’s camp also gets more out of leaking information to the ‘outsiders’ as it puts external pressure on Lotte to “do the right thing” and post him.

👉 What are the implications?

If Sasaki is indeed posted, it will set a dangerous precedent for NPB and heavily delegitimize the post-2017 (post-Ohtani) posting system that was agreed upon by MLB. The Lotte Marines would be the obvious loser and gain little. Reform is necessary regardless

[Matt Collier @reillocity]

classic opportunist... selling high

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@ThomasDeweyJr1 @nut_history I think you can go get him now

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@ThomasDeweyJr1 @nut_history Dude! Same! I use interesting at horrendous moments for this reason, no one ever gets it but it keeps me entertained. Cheers!

[Jomboy Media @JomboyMedia]

Baseball fans forever changed the way they view tragedies four years ago today

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@PARSlist My many Schany shares have taken offense

[LibertyJ @LibertyJen]

I did not expect to love this video as much as I do:

[Ben Smith @bensmithlive]

If pasta, bread, and red meat are so bad, why do Europeans live to 100+ and stay healthy?

But when Americans consume these?

They get chronically sick.

After some research…

I found the disturbing truth that explains exactly what's going on: 🧵

[Jomboy Media @JomboyMedia]

would watch them talk about all 154 plate appearances against one another

[Geoff Pontes @GeoffPontesBA]

Matt Wilkinson aka Tugboat threw 5.1 scoreless IP w/ 6 Ks, allowing 2 H and 2 BB. Mixed FB, SL and CHG. Fastball sat 88-89 mph T90 with a flat VAA (-4.1) and between 15-20 inches of armside run. Slider sat 78-80 that appears to sweep more than the HB numbers. #ForTheLand

[Davide Maria De Luca @DM_Deluca]

Italy, mixing up India and America since 1492

[ProspectVibeCheck @PrspctVibeCheck]

Finally…the top 10!

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@PARSlist @TBRML2024 @Bball21212121 😂

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@PARSlist @TBRML2024 @Bball21212121

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@RickyHarness00 @BarkleysBurner_ @BroderickRockEm @nflrums 😲

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@CummingsKo88 @nflrums This kids gonna break all the records and end up making qb money

[John Bratsakis @john_bratsakis]

@historyinmemes Look at that, 3 flys up is all grown up and made the Olympics! So proud. Back in my day the girls were scared to play