John

$16M rev scaling a gifting brand @ 50% YoY rev ecom-retail hybrid owner - 31% net margins | ex civil engineer

[John @johnsonysu]

@Jason______A I needed to read this right now

[John @johnsonysu]

@StrizziJ True

2016 - 2026 worked 7 days a week

No friends, hobbies not even gym

Just work

Now 31 and more money than i can spend

Work 1-3 hours a day replying emails then just golf w friends, gym, eat steak, play with kids

[Alex Hormozi @AlexHormozi]

Your goals will become easier to accomplish when you become harder to distract.

[John @johnsonysu]

So 6 weeks later we back near ATH

Lol

[John @johnsonysu]

I’m down 250k so far

It’s tough I don’t know how I an going to live

Or how I will tell my pregnant wife who is due in two months taking care of a 10 month old

That i may not be able to hire a 2nd nanny

Cause 250k is like a month of my pre tax earnings during a bad month

It’s so bad

[John @johnsonysu]

Thank you $nbis

Now we welcome to the stage

$brun $aaoi and $clsk

[Luc @investingluc]

I know VERY few people who tried with 100% serious effort for 10+ years that do not have stupid money now. I can't even name any actually. Only ones that failed were the ones that quit early on.

It's about duration. How long can you survive? After that...it's inevitable.

[mon @moninvestor]

I genuinely feel bad for young Koreans caught up in this.

For many people in their twenties and thirties, buying an apartment in Seoul feels completely out of reach (just as it is in the West). Stocks became one of the few ways they believed they could build enough wealth to get ahead, so they borrowed money and used leverage to increase their returns.

That worked while the KOSPI kept rising.

Once the market turned, the same leverage destroyed accounts within days.

According to Goldman Sachs, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts had received margin calls by July 13, with around 320,000 to 360,000 accounts completely liquidated. Margin-loan balances had already reached a record in June.

These numbers represent real people who have lost years of savings and could still owe money after their investments were sold.

South Korea is now preparing the 1375 debt-counselling hotline because the damage has become a serious social problem.

People were trying to create a better future for themselves, and many have now been financially destroyed because they took on more risk than they understood / could afford.

Unless you know what you are doing, this is exactly why you should never use leverage.

[John @johnsonysu]

TLDR you can eat shit for a long time and still be okay if you can win a good spouse

[John @johnsonysu]

Eventually Btc recovered

But we were still making less than min wage 5 years into starting our business each working 80 hour weeks

She wanted kids so bad but couldnt and yet still didn’t leave me

W wife

[John @johnsonysu]

That being said during crypto altcoin bubble I did seriously lose 250k at a time when we only had 300k in joint savings and she didn’t leave me

W wife

[John @johnsonysu]

Divergence between stock price and reality happens both ways

Either buy when it feels cheap or go touch grass

Leverage flush to prime for real pump, let it run its course

[yves @yvesstocks]

I'm so bullish on $AAOI you can't comprehend.

my own model used as a source.

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

Interesting shortage mapping by Goldman Sachs

For bottleneck investors…

⸻

Where tightness is strongest

1. Memory

DRAM and NAND show the most extreme pricing power:

- DRAM: +250–300% like-for-like in 2026, +300–350% ASP including mix

- NAND: +200–250% like-for-like in 2026, +250–300% ASP including mix

Tightness continues into 2027, especially for DRAM

Main beneficiaries:
SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, plus Kioxia/Western Digital for NAND

⸻

2. Substrates

ABF, PCB and CCL all show strong price increases and very tight supply/demand into 2027

Main beneficiaries:
Ibiden, Shinko, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, Kinsus, AT&S, Elite Material, ITEQ, TUC

Glass substrates are next, by the way

⸻

3. Optical cables and devices

Optical cables, optical devices and InP substrates all show tightness and positive pricing

Main beneficiaries:
Coherent, Lumentum, Fabrinet, Innolight, Eoptolink, Amphenol, TE Connectivity, AXT, Sumitomo Electric

The chart is more bullish for optical cables, optical devices and InP than for generic connectors

⸻

4. MLCCs

MLCCs are also moving into very tight conditions, with positive pricing into 2026 and 2027

Main beneficiaries:
Murata, TDK, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo

⸻

5. Materials

T-glass, CCL copper foil, tantalum powder and silicon wafers show signs of tightening

Main beneficiaries:
Nitto Boseki, AGC, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, GlobalWafers

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

The only scenario no one is pricing in currently is rate cuts AND capex increase.

Not financial advice.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others:

“We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”.

“Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”.

Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute…

When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5.

I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

[John @johnsonysu]

@mkfilko Ok added iqe but sold green eos 😀

[John @johnsonysu]

Current neoclouds face punitive external financing for buildout is a sign that skepticism is still the dominant force

This skepticism further shows through tenderness in stocks reacting to news e.g. $NBIS with $META posturing (no execution yet)

Therefore the contrarian play is not to doubt the build out, but perhaps the opposite

[John @johnsonysu]

Circular financing, is it insiders jockeying for positioning even if increasing their concentration risks because they see the demand curve before external financing?

Mid-late stage euphoria should be external financing outcompeting any reasonable offers made by insiders

Likely when SoftBank starts making outlandish projections and sloshing cash around

We still early