Jonas Åberg

Entrepeneur, investor, sports enthusiast. CEFA. My financial comments are NOT investment advice.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

#oil Let's for a minute assume POTUS speaks the truth. This would mean 30% of normal flow for a month, delaying the oil shock with 10 days. If true, publishing it means, it doesn't work anymore. In 250 y of history, 🇺🇲 has never had this disturbed a President. So sad for all.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@robin_j_brooks (i) true (ii) it can't drop as much as in 2022, dropping further now is something never seen before with this size of world economy, the oil relative significance has reduced from 70's. So many ways yo read that graph, it seems.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@AmbJohnBolton Forcefully opening Hormuz strait is almost impossible, a small team with attack drones can keep it closed in practice (no insurance or too costly). For a former national security adviser, your risk aversion seems extremely low, though it's probably much higher than Trump's.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@aeberman12 @PasqualePerri7 At least part of SPR basically in any country is for security purposes. The world security risks have been on the increase for some time, so most countries want to restock or increase SPR.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@aeberman12 The objectivity of EIA today is questionable. Energy Secretary Wright says oil streams through Hormuz are meaningfully increasing, which objectively is a lie today. Trump admin is manipulating EIA, it seems.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@robin_j_brooks Your optimism is really overwhelming. Trump is threatening infrastructure week in Iran, Iran would try to spread this around ME, if that happens. WTI hovers around $90. I can't predict timing, but I see it more probable than not that something breaks and oil will jump soon.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

8 ships in total 5 -7.6 through Hormuz. If it's 16 ships 8 - 10.6, Secretary Wright might personally find it meaningful, though even his secretary knows it isn't🤔 From 2 to 10 ships, 400% growth could be called significant, but not meaningful from the perspective of oil markets.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

SHIP TRAFFIC THROUGH HORMUZ RISING ‘VERY MEANINGFULLY’: WRIGHT

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@aeberman12 Increased exports relates partly to SPR releases, you just can't simply add them like that imo. Inventory drops allover the production chains are probable as well as drops in oil in transit at sea. Demand destruction is probably less at these price levels.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@vontuchman Juu, tuota historiaa katsoen, derivaatta on aina korkea kun tulee kunnollisempi liike vixissä, se ei tule pikkuhiljaa trendinomaisesti vaan lähtee kunnolla, sama toiseen suuntaan, näissä mielestäni MDAt eivät kerro mitään

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@vontuchman Hieno ketju, Pekka. Kuitenkin jotta nuoremmat eivät turhaan peläistyisi, VIXiä ei ole aina mitattu, mutta 1990 alkaen tilastoa. KA 19.45, mediaani 17.61. 1999-2001 ja 2006-08 seuranneena tämä on todella pientä kohinaa vielä.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@OsmoSoininvaara Hieno aloite, mutta puolueesi päättäjistä suurin osaa näyttää katselevan taloutta enemmänkin marxilaisesta näkökulmasta. Muhammedkin ymmärsi että jos kallio ei tule luo, sinun on käveltävä kalliolle (=ehkä aika vaihtaa puoluetta?)😉

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@JuhaVaris @OsakeKeisari $CANATU on periaatteessa verrattavissa lääkeyhtiöstartuppeihin jotka isot ostavat pois kun hyväksyntäputki näyttää toteutuvan. Verrattuna näihin Canatun potentiaali on parhaassa tapauksessa tosin
XXX-kertainen jos natsaa. Paras hinnoittelumalli lienee optio 3-5 v maturiteetillä.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@Huopainen Oma kullan kallis markkakaan ei kyllä ole myöskään tie Suomen autuuteen. Yhteisvaluutan ongelmat Suomelle ovat lähinnä oire aivan liian suuresta julkisen sektorin osuudesta BKT:stä (ME 59% tai ainakin kauden kärkitulos OECD maissa). Suomalaisista on tullut laiskoja, aika herätä.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@GalleVille Onneksi olkoon! Todella kova.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@SarasvuoJari 1+1=2😁

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@robin_j_brooks Why it will probably go like this: Strategic reserve managers are now buying future deliveries to compensate the lost inventory. Refineries need to secure flow at some point. Hormuz traffic will not normalize, MoU or no MoU w current US/Iran/Israel leadership. Cascade effect.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@robin_j_brooks SPR releases and China action explains the current imo low price of oil. Both are running on fumes. Before oil jumps, you will see a flattening future curve til at least December-26 futures. We already saw the spot and nearest futures flatten. As it occurs-> fast, violent moves.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@citrinowicz @BarakRavid Great, they'll be experts in a day determining parameters that took years to agree on and a minute to abandon. This must be the worst cl.ster https://t.co/RYgAYU9hKk US presidential admin in X years. X=250.

[Jonas Åberg @jonaskkaberg1]

@TomiAstikainen @vontuchman Juu, olet jo viikon myöhässä😉