Over the weekend, Tobi, the founder and CEO of Shopify, discussed the major reason investors passed on Shopify in the early days : market size.
I remember that financing round, & I remember having the same concern, & making the same mistake. Living in the valley & driving on 101, the billboards & logo-adorned headquarters of successful companies provide a daily infusion of all the mistakes in I’ve made in guessing how a company or a market might evolve.
Years later, I listened as Bill Gurley shared his thoughts about market size. He asked himself a question : whether the startup was increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the market size? (I can’t seem to find the link - but I have it in my notes!)
I added that question to my diligence list when meeting startups.
Now much later, having seen many companies create categories or reinvigorate aging ones, the question I ask myself has evolved.
It’s not as the market size large enough? Instead, it the question is : do we believe this company can create the market?
Market size is the output of all the players marketing, selling, building. Their efforts alter, distort, & juice the supply/demand curves of macroeconomics. It’s not a given - not an output or a steady-state CAGR.
Often it’s the startups that engender the demand, change the market dynamics, & make markets massive by taking risks with products.
When done right, these founders create category-defining businesses like Shopify (now worth $90b)!
@bgurley@levie I think the argument points to the importance of growth in markets / economies - otherwise it would work at a company level but not a labour market level because the companies applying AI would just take share from those that aren't.
@nwitten I think humans like to be amazed by things created by other humans because they can relate to the emotion of it. If this was going to happen there are so many places it would have already happened. Robots throwing darts would be one example!
The nine sources of competitive advantage. Good list but I would frame differently. I think it is 2,3,4 & 5 that matter. 1,6,7,8,9 appear to exist if you use 2,3,4&5 to create them
From @farnamstreet newsletter.
https://t.co/BYsx7wn0tu
Great interview with @joncoker, Founding Partner of @eka_ventures, one of our capital ventures, about their our approach and structure for assessing #founders:
https://t.co/neRPMCxQsl
#VC#ImpactInvesting
I really enjoyed this pod with David & Andreas at EUVC. We talked about our approach for assessing founders. All venture investors say founders are the most important part but very few have any real structure for this assessment! https://t.co/59bilA4afr
Many thanks to @eka_ventures' @joncoker for taking time out to talk about how Howard Group’s early commitment to join the crucial first #impactfund and support its mission was pivotal: "There was a real catalytic element to that" he says: https://t.co/9eSGra6gz4
I was excited about this even before I found out about the cardamon buns! Reckon its going to be the beginning of something special. Kudos to @hajak and our friends @palebluedotvc for putting it together
LESS THAN ONE MONTH TO GO! 💥👁
We can't wait to see you at The Drop.
A crisp September day in Sweden, talking about climate solutions with the people making it happen.
But what can you expect? Read on, reader! 1/3
@eladgil Would be interesting to see the correlation with domestic manufacturing. I think charts like these tend just to show the offshoring of manufacturing rather true reduction (ie emissions should be based on consumption including scope 3 etc)
Whilst there is a long way to go – and we need progress to be a lot faster – we’re travelling with many others now, including you.
Take a look inside the #SnowballAGM2022, on changing behaviours in investment. https://t.co/GUZOOwBhJz
#InvestPositive
7/ Fast fundraising and high valuations DO NOT create strong technology companies. Humility, intellectual honesty, fearless embrace of challenges and real risk, and outstanding human capital are the key ingredients. Financial capital is helpful but often incidental.
We had our biggest delivery week by +40% as we continue to ramp up! 🚀
What was especially great about this week was the amount of amazing feedback we continuously got throughout the week.
I've shared some of the funnier ones below as well as one 'complaint.' 😉 (1/8)
I’ll be sharing how @HivedHQ is building the infrastructure to cope with this still nascent e-commerce boom - in a way that that combines efficiency, sustainability and social responsibility.👇🏽