joulemath

[joulemath @joulemath]

Full math, sources and host payback (about 50 months at the Vast median vs 25 at the Ornn index): https://t.co/6YBFxXisMD

[joulemath @joulemath]

Rent or buy an H100?

Owning one runs ~$1.36/GPU-hr if it's busy 24/7 for 4 yrs (1/8 of a $289k 8x server, CBRE colo rate, $0.06 power). Our math.

Buying only wins if it's busy more than:
60% vs Vast median $2.27 (6 offers)
51% vs RunPod Community $2.69
30% vs Lambda 8x list $4.59

Bursty load? Rent.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@LookInto_BTC Mempool's latest read is about 945 EH/s on the 3-day and 182 blocks left, with difficulty estimated down 7.8%. That puts this epoch roughly 91% complete.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@DecryptMedia At 148.36T and about $71,550 BTC, subsidy-only hashprice pencils to roughly $30.3/PH/day. If the estimated -7.8% cut lands, that moves to about $32.9, all else equal.

[joulemath @joulemath]

Live H100, H200 and B200 rental prices vs the Ornn index: https://t.co/vwYv0Fdv5l

[joulemath @joulemath]

Nebius Q3: $981M revenue, Adj EBITDA $466M (47% margin). 2027 sales guide $12-13B.

Number that matters for GPU hosts: customer prepayments covered over 100% of the capex on Q3 contracts (Reuters).

Buyers fronting the build cost doesn't look like a GPU glut.

[Nebius @nebiusai]

“Our focus remains on building a healthy, profitable business for the long term. We will continue to invest across the business — in our capacity and infrastructure build-out, in our platform and products, and in the team that takes this to market.”

– Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO

Highlights from our Q3 results:

- Customers are paying more up front. Prepayments on Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of the related capex, including data center construction and networking, up from 50–60% in Q2.
- Pricing continues to rise. Annual contract value on Q3 deals topped $25 million per MW, up from more than $20 million in Q2, and GPU-hour prices rose on average by more than 20% from Q2.
- Our customer base is growing. We added more AI-native companies and signed our first agreements with leading enterprise data and AI platforms.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@GavMcCracken @elonmusk Rental prices are going the other way right now. Ornn's H100 index settled at $3.25/hr on Nov 11 vs $3.02 on Nov 1, and H200 at $7.75 vs $6.21. Spot on Vast today: H100 median $2.34/hr across 6 offers.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@TradoorDub @_bitview_ And the next one points down: 208 blocks left, mempool estimates about -7.7% around Saturday. That lifts subsidy-only hashprice from ~$31.1 to ~$33.7/PH/day at BTC ~$73.3K. Breakeven for a 30 J/TH rig is ~4.3c/kWh today.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@coincamps Our math on the mining side: 1 MW of 17.5 J/TH rigs is ~57 PH. At today's ~$31/PH/day hashprice (subsidy only, mempool difficulty, BTC ~$73.3K) that's ~$1,780/day gross, before paying for the power. AI tenants pay power on top, so the net gap is wider than the revenue gap.

[joulemath @joulemath]

Index vs listings for every GPU, with sources: https://t.co/vwYv0Fdv5l

[joulemath @joulemath]

Ornn's settled GPU-hour index, Nov 1 vs Nov 11:
H100 $3.02 to $3.25 (+8%)
H200 $6.21 to $7.75 (+25%)
B200 $9.44 to $9.84 (+4%)

Open asks on Vast move slower: H100 median $2.33 (7 offers).
The squeeze shows up in trades first, and H200 is where it's sharpest.

[Patrick Saner @patrick_saner]

Friendly reminder that GPU rental prices remain alive and well. Demand continues to be relentless, especially for frontier GPUs.

[joulemath @joulemath]

All three sources side by side, by GPU: https://t.co/vwYv0Fdv5l

[joulemath @joulemath]

H200 vs H100, one GPU-hour today:
Ornn index (settled Nov 10): $7.24 vs $3.10 (2.3x)
RunPod Community: $3.59 vs $2.69 (1.3x)
Vast median (4 offers each): $3.26 vs $3.37 (~1x)

Where trades settle, the H200 costs more than double. On open listings it's barely a premium.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@bdinvestingg Worth watching on spot too. Ornn's index settled Nov 10 at A100 $1.05/hr, H100 $3.10, H200 $7.24. Marketplace listings run lower (A100 median ~$0.72 on Vast), so the contract vs spot spread is big.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@Crypto_McKenna Index data agrees on the high end. Ornn's H100 SXM settled $3.10/hr on Nov 10, H200 $7.24, B200 $9.90. Single H100 listings on Vast and RunPod community still sit around $2.00 to $2.70, so the gap between index and spot is wide.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@twtlinks Same read here: 297 blocks to go and the retarget is tracking about -6.8%. Subsidy-only hashprice is ~$31.2/PH/day at 148.36T difficulty, so a full cut lifts it to roughly $33.4 if price holds. A 30 J/TH rig breaks even near 4.3c/kWh today.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@BTCPulseData Now 320 blocks left and the estimate is about -6.6%, blocks averaging ~10.7 min. Still landing around Nov 13.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@sdub2019 Same question here. Q4 is the first real test: does hosting revenue start to offset a hashprice near $31/PH/day, or is it still mostly capex going out? We'll be reading it in $/MW, not BTC held.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@emelucrypto Q3 alone: mined 2,247, sold 3,891, about 1.7x output, before the 13,597 sold after Sept 30. With subsidy-only hashprice near $31.2/PH/day, the coins are funding debt paydown and the AI build, not sitting in treasury.

[joulemath @joulemath]

@MicNguyenn105 Same squeeze from the revenue side: at ~$73.6K BTC and 148.36T difficulty, subsidy-only hashprice is about $31.2/PH/day. The retarget due ~Nov 13 is tracking around -6.6% with 320 blocks left, which would lift that to roughly $33.4 for the same rigs.