Chamath Lays Out the Case for SpaceX at $2 Trillion
– Starlink: the most important internet infra project since the internet itself
– Rockets: underlying platform that allows everything else to happen
– AI: apps top layer, datacenter bottom layer
– The Elon Flywheel: operating leverage ➡️ investment ➡️ competitive moat ➡️ capital moat ➡️ technology moat ➡️ execution/learning moat
– Potential Tesla merger down the road
– Elon’s premium for being “the guy” right now
@chamath:
“ If I'm asking myself, ‘Chamath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at $2T?’
Here's the basic math that I would do.
Last year it did $18-19 billion. It'll probably do $25-30 billion this year. So I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right?
So what am I buying?
I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself. That's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users, and the reason that's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful, and it's just going to become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So that's number one.
I'm buying a delivery infrastructure, I think over time, GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15, kind of a grower. So good business, valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen.
And then I'm buying an AI business, which will be at the top level the apps, but at the bottom layer all the compute capability.
So I suspect what happens is next year it's probably $40-45 billion. And then the year after that it probably doubles again, so then I'm buying it at 20x revenue.
And you would say, ‘Well, why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus earnings and cash flow?’
And I think the reason is because what the revenue does is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate his differentiation and his competitive moat, because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a technology moat, that then accelerates an execution and a learning moat.
And that flywheel, when it starts to spin very quickly, and you would say, ‘Hey, hold on a second. It's probably spinning quickly now.’ I would say we're at the beginning of the beginning.
He still has all these disparate assets. I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here, and as I've told you, that will get merged in.
And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z, right? That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years.
And he has this one thing that nobody else, if you look at the big CEOs, who steps on stage where you're always curious, ‘Okay, what has he got up his sleeve?’ You know, the Steve Jobs, ‘Oh, and one more thing.’ He's the guy. Whether you like him or you hate him, he's the guy, and there's a premium that is well-deserved that comes with that.”
Everyone is trying to claim me for their tribe. There’s no R next to my name, there’s no D next to my name. I’m not part of a political party, because I hate politicians. I’m just Spencer, husband to Heidi, father to Ryker and Gunner, and I’m a pissed off Angeleno who loves my city and is fed up with what corrupt politicians have done to her.
If SpaceX is valued at $1.5T on $20b revenue run rate, which increases to $32b with the Anthropic data center leases, then its valued at 46x revenues
Cursors is doing $3b in revenue and with its $60b acquisition of 20x revenues, so its nicely accretive
Elon compounds his wealth at 41% per year
So to grow revenue from $35b by 410% by next year (~$14b new revenue), he just needs one more Anthropic sized deal to clear that hurdle
SpaceX has $15b in cash on hand right now and the IPO would raise up to $65b
With an $80b war chest, growing revenue $14b is a breeze. You could do one more Anthropic sized deal, maybe even with Anthropic. I suspect most of that $80b is going to continue to go to data center capacity.
If he unlocks structural cost advantage with space data centers, all bets are off (in a good way).
“AVOID Chevron” ? Incredible leadership from a guy who turned gas into a luxury item.
Hardworking Californians are out here choosing between gas and groceries heading into a holiday weekend, and the @cagovernor thinks this is some kind of clap-back.
CA gas is over $6 because of Sacramento policies- not because people picked the wrong pump.
The level of out-of-touch is actually insane.
@GovPressOffice
After nearly 18 years I can stop working on Model S and X. We put so much love into these products, but will continue to pour that into the future products. Thanks to everyone who believed in and supported these cars through the years. We strived for the best and will never stop. Saying goodbye to something great and making room for something even greater!
People like Harvey Levin destroyed LA. You keep voting for corruption.
To every Hollywood elite still voting blue, this is on you. Never going back. 🇺🇸 #explore#fyp