I'll be at NeurIPS this week Dec 2nd - 6th. If you're a researcher working on voice AI models and are interested in large scale data acquisition, DM me, let's chat!
Social media tends to frame AI debate into two caricatures:
(A) Skeptics who think LLMs are doomed and AI is a bunch of hype.
(B) Fanatics who think we have all the ingredients and superintelligence is imminent.
But if you read what leading researchers actually say (beyond the headlines), there’s a surprising amount of convergence:
1) The current paradigm is likely sufficient for massive economic and societal impact, even without further research breakthroughs.
2) More research breakthroughs are probably needed to achieve AGI/ASI. (Continual learning and sample efficiency are two examples that researchers commonly point to.)
3) We probably figure them out and get there within 20 years. @demishassabis said maybe in 5-10 years. @fchollet recently said about 5 years. @sama said ASI is possible in a few thousand days. @ylecun said about 10 years. @ilyasut said 5-20 years. @DarioAmodei is the most bullish, saying it's possible in 2 years though he also said it might take longer.
None of them are saying ASI is a fantasy, or that it's probably 100+ years away.
A lot of the disagreement is in what those breakthroughs will be and how quickly they will come. But all things considered, people in the field agree on a lot more than they disagree on.
It's so easy to say "it's just curve fitting" because curve fitting doesn't look that impressive when you do it in a classroom. But honestly instead of diminishing AI, this should massively increase our esteem and appreciation for curve-fitting.
. @Stanford's Alpaca #AI performs similarly to the astonishing #ChatGPT on many tasks – but it's built on an open-source language model and cost less than US$600 to train up.
https://t.co/3jzWdDcjMe
@benjihyam Worst take ever. Probably one of the most transformational technologies of our generation. ChatGPT and its future evolutions (as well as other large models) are going to change everything about the world we know.