Ppl keep asking me what to buy when the market is hitting up through the last couple of weeks.
But when I told them $Hype, $Near, $Uni, they didn’t want to it because they saw them already went up a lot.
What they actually want is a token still sitting at the bottom. Something that barely moved while everything else was ripping.
Winners keep winning, losers keep losing.
> Winners: go up when BTC goes up, dip a little when BTC drops, bounce hard when BTC recovers.
> Losers: go up a little when BTC goes up, drop hard when BTC drops, sit still when BTC recovers.
Don’t want to buy the top is a common mindset and it always makes people miss wave 1-3 of the bull run.
And when they stay out of wave 1-3, seeing others flexing profits, they can’t stay out anymore, then they jump in at wave 4-5 and the market reaches the top.
Remember that you get paid for taking risk!
.@Uniswap v4 already flipped v3 in 30d volume and somehow the conversation is still mostly about hooks.
The bigger story imo is what happens when v4 becomes the liquidity backend and UniswapX becomes the router sitting above everything.
What I find more interesting is the capital efficiency.
– v4 did ~$39B volume over the last 30d against $1.05B TVL = ~37.1x monthly turnover.
– v3 did ~$33.8B over the same 30d against $1.5B TVL = ~22.5x.
– v4 takes ~54% of Uniswap volume on Ethereum.
→ v4 is moving ~1.65x the volume per dollar sitting inside the system.
Which makes more sense when you look at what is actually getting used.
8 of the 10 largest v4 pairs by 30d volume are stable pairs.
Uniswap itself did ~$43.4B stable-to-stable volume in Q2, and now v4 is getting purpose-built infra for exactly this flow.
@sparkfinance already moved $150M of stable liquidity onto v4.
Capital doesn’t necessarily need to sit dead inside an AMM 24/7 anymore just so it can be available when someone wants to trade.
Which also explains why TVL becomes a worse metric for judging v4.
UniswapX is the other tech I’m bullish on. Its fillers can use v4 liquidity, v3 liquidity, other DEXs or their own inventory.
What matters is v4 is making liquidity more programmable and potentially more fragmented. UniswapX is supposed to make that fragmentation invisible.
We can already see how useful that architecture could become on RH.
v2 + v3 + v4 + UniswapX all went live there from day one, and RH is now Uniswap’s largest 30d chain with ~$29B volume.
– v4 is doing ~$15.9B there, or ~42% of all v4 30d volume.
– ETH adds another ~$12.6B, BSC ~$4.4B, Base ~$2.2B.
We also got many projects building on top of v4 hooks, but it’s still early.
90k+ hooks have been initialized, but hooked volume was only around ~1% of v4 volume in most months.
But I really love some of the tech being built:
– @token_works: one of the few teams that actually proved v4 hooks can print, using decaying 95–99% launch taxes + automated fee routing to generate ~$51M cumulative strategy fees.
– @standard_rsv: an onchain central bank where a v4 hook on ETH/$STANDARD runs monetary policy itself, while fees rotate between gold/POL accumulation and $STANDARD buyback + burn.
– $IMD: @surfcoderepeat is building protocol-owned markets on v4 where the hook itself manages liquidity, burns excess inventory and routes value to stakers + future onchain compute.
v4 is winning because the same dollar of liquidity can do more work, while UniswapX can sit on top and hide the mess.
And maybe Uniswap’s moat now is owning the order flow and making every source of liquidity fight for it.
Likely 50+ launchpads are live on @arc so far, but only a few have the volume.
So I’m taking a closer look at these pads and filtering for the ones that actually printed numbers.
> @Longdotsupply
~30% of the entire $CRCL supply on Robinhood Chain has been bridged to Arc in a few days.
439 tokens launched via this platform, with 2 tokens above $1M mcap: $LONG, $PEG.
> @TollyLabs
Best official volume print on the list.
$4.58M lifetime volume, ~$300K last 24h volume.
569 traders so far.
3 tokens trading over $1M mcap: $COOL, $TOLLY, $ARGUS.
>> @liftdotfun
Two days into beta they posted 285 launches, $100k+ volume, $359 pad revenue, and a first graduate: $DEPEG.
The site is now sitting closer to ~400 tokens.
>> @Arguspad
6/243 tokens graduated via this platform.
Launched token mcap: $3.2M, with $ARGUS as the top mcap at $1.9M.
>> @circlewarp
Live site: 4,433 tokens indexed, 281 tokens live, $31.5k 24h volume, $2.06M all-time, 1 graduated.
$WARP itself is ~$609k MC with ~$1.60M vol.
>> @ellipsefun
$39.3k+ TVL in custody, 22 paired markets, 4 claim assets (GLD / CRCL / USDT / BTCB).
GLD/CRCL keep hitting the daily deposit cap and going into queue.
I bought $ZEC on the wick down during the June bug, still adding some at current prices.
My thesis is this is the first time TradFi can actually touch ZEC with size through ETF and they will.
> Zcash inherited Bitcoin's core monetary policy: 21M cap, PoW, halvings
> bolted on the privacy layer BTC can never really retrofit
But privacy isn't really competing with Bitcoin's scarcity thesis.
It's asking what happens if people eventually want Bitcoin-like scarcity without broadcasting their entire financial graph forever.
> 28.7% shielded supply now
Going from 8% to almost 30% of supply choosing privacy is a pretty meaningful change in what the asset actually is.
After a bug wiped 50% off the price in June, people didn't permanently flee the private pool once they got scared. They came back and grew it again.
ZEC still got huge upside while being only around ~1% of Bitcoin's market cap.
Grayscale's own scenario math has 2% / 5% / 10% landing at ~$1.6K / $4K / $8K.
Makes sense to me. Privacy only needs to become large enough for staying at ~1% forever to start looking wrong.
Also thinking $ZEC moving can rotate degen attention into some betas:
> monero:native: mandatory-private cash that survived multiple CEX delistings and now gets a major access unlock through native THORChain swaps.
> $FOLD: ciphernodes bond FOLD to run verifiable encrypted compute using FHE + ZK + MPC for private auctions, voting and shared data.
> ethereum:0xa12cc123ba206d4031d1c7f6223d1c2ec249f4f3: FHE rails that let DeFi compute on encrypted balances across existing chains. $595M through the wrap boundary + 1,000 confidential transfers/sec benchmark.
> $ARX: best privacy play on Sol for encrypted DeFi, payroll and AI, with 1M+ confidential computations already processed.
Gonna be interesting watching how much of this market eventually decides it doesn't want the whole world watching every wallet move.
Hopped back into @pubscasino tonight and saw Villa vs Arsenal sitting there.
Threw a small one on Arsenal at 1.49
Still like the vibe here, feels more like sitting at the pub having a punt with mates than staring at a spreadsheet.
NFA.
Link here if you want to check it https://t.co/IYzQQF7y4M