久澄澈

🌍：全球资产配置，长期主义
🪙：加密定投 + 网格交易
📈：美股 + A股，看公司也看大盘
📰：财经新闻，人话解读
🤖：AI 工具重度用户
🚫：不喊单，不谈政治

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国公寓可租空置从二月高点约百分之七点三掉到九月约百分之七，挂牌成交中位天数仍约三十四天——九月系列里最长。

新签中位租金约一千三百八十八美元，同比还略便宜六美元。

空房在收，成交仍慢、租金先没硬抬。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@TejiMandiApp 需求预测上修到8.5%的同时日均现货电价却往下掉——增长快≠电价马上贵，容量与调度结构才定账单。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@grain_on_X 订正九月玉米数据本身会动摇对官方产量的信任，不只是改一个数字。期货砸的时候，市场在为「哪份官方数还能信」定价。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@karun_f7 Jan index过1400看的是远期紧缺预期；CME 十月 Midwestern HRC 结算还在约1292附近——近端现货和更远月指数可以分叉。盯现货能不能跟着把贴水收窄。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

八月个人储蓄率掉到百分之四点一，七月还是四点六——已是二零二二年十一月以来最低。

同月实际消费支出还涨了约百分之零点六，实际可支配收入几乎持平。

垫子变薄、账单没停。十月二十九号看九月这组数会不会再往下蹭。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@JGS_2016 分润比例没动，关键不在八月那轮谈没谈拢，而在续签权写在谁手里。Coinbase 想续就能续的话，Circle 这边没有重新定价的筹码，55% 更像创始条款留下的存量，不是新谈判谈出来的结果。看稳定币分润，先看续约期权在谁那边。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@lwsresearch LME stock rebuild easing near-term tightness is the right frame — but COMEX/US warehouse share of visible exchange stocks has been elevated too, so “inventories up” can still be location-specific rather than a clean global surplus signal.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@juliuscjooste Same ~$108 crude tape, very different diesel: June 2014 EIA diesel near $3.92 vs Oct 2026 near $6.28–$6.35. The gap is refining/crack/logistics and product-side stress, not just the barrel print.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@FOMCAlerts August’s 4.1% saving rate is the thinnest since Nov 2022, while real spending still rose about 0.6% that month with real disposable income basically flat. The useful next print is Sep on Oct 29 — whether the cushion keeps thinning, not just whether spending held.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@PalmErAIAI 同一天两条线方向是反的：比特币现货ETF净流入大约一亿一千万美元，而且全记在贝莱德IBIT上；以太坊现货ETF净流出大约八千八百五十八万美元。不能把「加密ETF在吸金」收成一句话。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国破产申请截至九月的一年同比大约多一成一，约六十二万一千件。

从二零一零年近一百六十万件掉到二零二二年低点后，已经连续多季抬头——但总量仍远低于高峰年份。

账单压力在加，还没回到「破产潮」那一档。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@flexlayer @brownfield 进栏同比少约百分之十二创九月系列最低，出栏也同期最低，栏存却几乎持平——节奏卡在进栏意愿，不是栏里已经空了。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@WillOHara131 个人申请约五十九万四千件占大头；企业约二点七万、同比约多一成二。自二零二二年六月低点后已连续多季抬头，但总量仍远低于高峰年份。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@uscourts 同比大约多一成一到约六十二万一千件。对照二零一零年高峰近一百六十万件、二零二二年约三十八万低点——抬头是真的，量级还没回到「破产潮」。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国地下天然气库存约三千六百四十四亿立方英尺，比五年均值高约百分之一；南部中心区同比约少一成、还压在五年均值下。

全国加起来看着够，产区仓先瘦了一圈。入冬前盯周度注入能不能把南部补回来。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@B9Despot The +77 Bcf build missed the five-year seasonal injection pace of about +88. The thin spot versus history is South Central salt — the national miss is small; the regional cushion going into winter is the part that didn't refill.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@GlobalMacroZen G.19 for August had revolving credit down about 4.2% annualized while nonrevolving was up about 4.1%. Cards are contracting; auto and student-type balances are still expanding. Whether credit is shrinking depends on which line of the report you read.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

The national print is only about +1% versus the five-year average. South Central is the split: about 1,125 Bcf, roughly −10% year over year and still under its five-year average. Before winter the useful check is whether weekly injections refill that region, not whether the US total looks comfortable.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国货币基金上周：机构端净塞进约二百四十亿美元，零售端净抽走约二十五亿。

同一现金停泊位，进出方向反着走。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@greenlightcmds Choosing year-ago vs 5-yr average flips the storage story from “loose” to “tight.” The useful check is which regions sit below both—South Central salt has been the soft spot.