정홍중

Tracking & Reading

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

Interesting shortage mapping by Goldman Sachs

For bottleneck investors…

⸻

Where tightness is strongest

1. Memory

DRAM and NAND show the most extreme pricing power:

- DRAM: +250–300% like-for-like in 2026, +300–350% ASP including mix

- NAND: +200–250% like-for-like in 2026, +250–300% ASP including mix

Tightness continues into 2027, especially for DRAM

Main beneficiaries:
SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, plus Kioxia/Western Digital for NAND

⸻

2. Substrates

ABF, PCB and CCL all show strong price increases and very tight supply/demand into 2027

Main beneficiaries:
Ibiden, Shinko, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, Kinsus, AT&S, Elite Material, ITEQ, TUC

Glass substrates are next, by the way

⸻

3. Optical cables and devices

Optical cables, optical devices and InP substrates all show tightness and positive pricing

Main beneficiaries:
Coherent, Lumentum, Fabrinet, Innolight, Eoptolink, Amphenol, TE Connectivity, AXT, Sumitomo Electric

The chart is more bullish for optical cables, optical devices and InP than for generic connectors

⸻

4. MLCCs

MLCCs are also moving into very tight conditions, with positive pricing into 2026 and 2027

Main beneficiaries:
Murata, TDK, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo

⸻

5. Materials

T-glass, CCL copper foil, tantalum powder and silicon wafers show signs of tightening

Main beneficiaries:
Nitto Boseki, AGC, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, GlobalWafers

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just putting it out there:

If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others...

Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far.

Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals.

Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

[Ken Fisher @KennethLFisher]

Hate to say I told you so but I told you so.
https://t.co/whVlUbFuW3

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

@ValleyAI_X 슬푸다..

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

RT @ValleyAI_X: 이란, 미국과의 최종 합의를 위한 회담 일시 중단 🇺🇸🇮🇷 (TASS, 이란 소식통 인용)

- "Iran suspends talks on a final settlement with the United States"

#…

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

@KennethLFisher @grok 영상을 요약 정리해줘

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨A key liquidity indicator is flashing red for US stocks:

The G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator, which measures real money growth relative to economic growth, has turned negative for the first time since the 2021 inflation shock.

This indicator has historically led the S&P 500 by ~6 months, meaning stocks could come under pressure over the next 6 months.

In general, excess liquidity turns negative when inflation and economic growth absorb money faster than it is being created, leaving less capital available to support risk assets.

Put simply, the real economy is now effectively extracting liquidity from financial markets rather than supplying it, a dynamic that has preceded major drawdowns in 2008 and 2022.

If the historical lead time holds, the window for market strength to continue is narrowing.

Will the indicator prove correct again?

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

@jsh3pump_ 축하드려요.

[Valley AI @ValleyAI_X]

올해 시장을 움직일 4가지 주요 테마 🚀

① 전력: AI 서버 전압이 800V에서 1500V로 상향됨에 따라, 고전압 부품(Power Rack, SiC/GaN) 수요가 폭증할 것 ⚡

② 광통신: 데이터 병목 해소를 위해 전기 신호 대신 빛을 사용하는 CPO(Co-packaged Optics) 기술이 1.6Tbps 시대를 주도할 것✨

③ 부품: AI 서버용 MLCC, 특수 유리 섬유(T-glass) 등 부품이 '26년부터 공급 부족에 직면할 것 ⚙️

④ 피지컬 AI: 산업용 AI(일본)와 자율주행/로봇(중국)으로 AI가 리얼 세계를 제어하기 시작 🤖

- 다른 섹터의 회복이 더딘 가운데, 올해도 기업 이익의 핵심 동력은 'AI 공급망'

- AI 테마는 더 넓고, 더 깊고, 더 확산되는 단계로 진입

- 밸류에이션 부담이 있지만, 이익 성장 속도가 이를 정당화할 것

Source: Goldman Sachs

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

@SabuCoin @grok 블랙록의 래리핑크의 비트코인과 이더리움 매매는 암호화폐 시장 또는 금융 매크로 등과 상관관계가 있는 편인가요?

[Edu Estallo - Asesor Financiero @FinanzasConEdu]

🚨 Cada gran burbuja de la historia estalló exactamente en el mismo nivel de concentración: 40%.

Sin excepciones. En 180 años.

📊 El patrón se repite:
🔴 Ferrocarriles (1880s): pico 63%, estallido desde ~40%
🔴 Nifty Fifty (1965): pico y colapso en 40%

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

@kateumaenkeni 참고로 레인보우로보틱스는 PER 1만 넘겼어요.🤣

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

99% of options traders are gambling because they never learned the fundamentals.

This 1-hour Yale lecture changes everything.

In just 60 minutes, you’ll learn more about options trading than most overpriced trading courses ever teach.

No hype. No fake gurus. Just real knowledge.

Save this and watch it without distractions. 📌

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

THE SUPER CYCLE PHASES

Phase 1 was Semis:
$NVDA $ARM $AMD $AVGO $INTC

Next money rotates into the next layers:

Memory:
$MU $WDC $STX $SNDK

Photonics / Optical:
$NOK $LITE $COHR $AAOI $GLW $CIEN $MRVL

Now it’s hitting

Compute / AI Data Centers:
$IREN $CIFR $WULF $CORZ $NBIS $CRWV $P

Next

Materials / Rare Earths:
$MP $USAR $UUUU $FCX $AA

Networking:
$ANET $AVGO $MRVL $CSCO

Power / Grid / Cooling:
$VRT $ETN $GEV $CEG $SMR $OKLO

Space:
$ASTS $RKLB $LUNR $PL

Defense / Drones:
$KTOS $AVAV $ONDS $LMT

Robotics / Autonomy:
$TSLA $PATH $SYM $SERV

[Nick Essence @nick88886666]

액체냉각의 시대는 2027년 부터.
CPO 보다 1년 느리게 오는데
AI 데이터센터 완공 시점에 설치되는게 액체 냉각이라 1년의 갭이 있다.

[Kawsar @Kawsar_Ai]

GOODBYE, FUND MANAGERS. GOODBYE, BLOOMBERG TERMINAL.

No more $24,000/year subscriptions.
Claude just turned my laptop into a private quant analyst.

Here are 07 prompts to build your own hedge fund at home ↓

[Stellar Rippler🚀 @Stellar_Rippler]

🚨 Scott Bessent Just Signalled Bretton Woods 2.0 And Warns To Position Yourself For It

“The banking system created after WWII unleashed global prosperity. Why not recreate it now?”

He openly calls for “Rewiring the banking and financial system.”
Sounds familiar?

The architects are openly planning a new financial architecture. As The Great Taking shows, these resets reassign ownership. When they redesign the pipes, control of assets, collateral, and custody is on the table.

He also adds:
“Build your safety zone and secure direct ownership now, don’t wait to discover where you stand in their new system.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​“

Can someone remind me which DLT/Blockchain is creating an end-to-end financial stack - Payments, Treasury, Institutional-grade Custody, Brokerage, Repo Markets, Private Identity and Tokenization?

If you know the answer, secure and position yourself.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

THE 7 LAYERS OF PHOTONICS

1. Materials & Wafers (substrate layer)
$AXTI, $IQE $WOLF, $COHR, $LWLG

2. Tools (fabrication layer)
$ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX

3. Lasers (light generation layer)
$LITE, $COHR, $LASR, $SMTC

4. Foundries (manufacturing layer)
$TSM, $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $INTC

5. Test, Inspection & Packaging (reliability layer)
$AEHR, $VIAV, $ONTO, $AMKR, $FN

6. Optics (module layer)
$AAOI, $POET, $GLW

7. Networking (connectivity layer)
$CRDO, $MRVL, $AVGO, $ANET, $CIEN

[정홍중 @junghongjoong]

@jsh3pump_ 빠른 공유 감사합니다 ㅠㅠ