The market salivates every single time we get a positive headline about resolving the Iran war. The *day before* the war started in February, the 10-year yield was 3.96%, and falling. We were setting up for a goldilocks environment. It's nearly 5.2% today. You'd think with all the repeated headlines and no resolution, we'd be playing "boy who cried wolf" by now, but no -- reopening the Strait of Hormuz is THAT important to near-term inflation expectations. The market is literally screaming at the top of its lungs: "END THE WAR"
BREAKING: Anonymous "sources" from Reuters claim US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of the war that would involve Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting its blockade.
Brent crude oil is falling 3% on the report, and the S&P 500 turns positive.
However, this is the same proposal the US rejected last night in New York, and Iran itself called reports of a seven-day phased reopening "false, unreliable and lacking in accuracy" two days ago.
A senior Iranian official in the same report says "our fingers are on the trigger" and that "because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low."
Lord, President Xi just insulted Trump and the USA, right to Trump's face-in the White House. Xi referred, yet again, to the "Thucydides trap". This is a reference to the US being in decline and China replacing it.
And Trump sits their making moo eyes like a lovestruck teenager
The Reuters report is false and its goal is to control the price of oil. no negotiations are underway. #Iran's position remains unchanged: the U.S. must fulfill the stipulated conditions in a single step so that the Strait of #Hormuz can be opened under Iranian control. Period.
Why is specifically Reuters being so active in pushing this fake news over and over again for the past 3 days? Is some hedge fund or Bessent hired guns close to seeing their crude oil short positions blowing up? This is not how the White House would communicate to markets