Aka

[jasonleo @Jason60704294]

发现讲太多大道理绝大多数人不懂，分享一个朴实无华的交易策略：
1.在没有极端消息面的情况下， 大盘迅速上涨5%～10%，现价开空
2.下跌5%～10%，现价开多。
这个策略覆盖绝大多数情况。 按照这个纪律执行，10次最少有6次胜率， 按照这个执行没挣钱的来找我！
Ps，要排除极端消息面，以及众所周知的单边行情。
要学会从现象找本质！

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

https://t.co/2ghAA5aLZB

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

If you wanna stop losing money in crypto, the first thing you should do is STOP day trading.

Because RETAIL day trading is structurally a SCAM.

This is a long post but if you just give me 120 seconds of your time, I swear you'll thank me in a few years.

I’ve been trading since I was a teenager.

I’ve had wins that made me feel I’m Batman and losses that genuinely broke pieces of me I’m still putting back together.

I tried EVERY STRATEGY myself as retail could ever find.

I even day traded for a year thinking it would finally save me, and I failed so painfully it still stings every time I remember it.

> My PNL was so shit to the point that my grandma, who I HELPED set up an AUTO BUY on BTC for, made more money than me.

> Then I became a low-frequency swing trader who barely touches positions, who GETS THE F OUT and STOPS TRADING for a while after a winning move.

> ONLY THEN did my life get better and everything finally start to click.

I’m not a saint. I’m writing this to save the younger, dumb, naive, and painfully impulsive version of me.

First, as a RETAIL DAY TRADER, you’re trading high-frequency with zero real information advantage (no real order flow, no true liquidity map, no market maker positioning, no execution advantage, nothing).

> Do it a few times each quarter, you survive.
> Do it 10+ times a week?
> Even if you have the strongest “discipline” and “risk management” skills in the world, the math will still burry you alive.

Retails don’t fail because they (we) never win.
We fail because we NEVER STOP, and high frequency only has one final outcome.

RUIN.

> This is literally why I built a punishment system for myself if I exceed my quarterly trade limit.

> Every major loss I’ve ever taken happened after a big win where I kept going instead of stopping.

> And every major win I’ve ever taken (and actually kept the money for a long time) was because I caught a big move and then CHILLED.

> Pattern is so obvious it hurts.

Winning is NOT you suddenly made big money.
Winning is keeping that money and not fking losing it next year.

> I’m seeing 14 year olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing lines on TradingView, thinking they unlocked some daily executable system after buying a guru’s course or Discord.

> It sickens me because if they knew it was gambling I wouldn’t care. At least they’re aware of the game.

> But this day trading meta is bigger than the dropshipping wave in 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that ended.

> People underestimate the difficulty of trading and massively overestimate their ability.

> The issue isn’t just the math. Yes the more you trade and the less you stop the harder consistent profitability becomes.

> But the real problem is younger retail traders GENUINELY believe that with “discipline” and “risk management” they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" you can execute like a daily routine.

This isn’t just crypto day trading. The same logic applies to US equities and basically every market.

High frequency only works inside institutions.

> Take US equities for example.
> Do you know what institution traders don’t even look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView.
> They’re on Bloomberg terminals with data retail will never see.

Well, you of course knows this. BUT the 14 to 18 year olds don’t know that. They think their indicators are what all traders use.

And that’s the real danger.
> If you know you’re gambling, at least a part of you knows when to walk away.
> But once you believe it’s a “system”, you never stop.
> You keep clicking until the market empties you completely.

It really is just like a casino in disguise.

> When you walk into Vegas or Macau, you know EXACTLY what you’re stepping into.

> You see the lights, the tables, the dealers, the noise. Your brain knows this is gambling.

> But day trading today is a casino disguised as a COFFEE SHOP.

> New traders walk in thinking they’re here to “learn a skill”, not realizing they just sat down at a table designed to drain them slowly.

So they don’t stop.
That’s the whole tragedy.
Not the losing.

The fact that they genuinely believe they’re not gambling, which makes them keep going until there’s nothing left to lose.

> And those retail traders (like me) you see who look like they’re “winning”… honestly most of them just caught a big move.

> They had luck at the right moment, plus enough discipline beaten into them by previous losses that they finally learned how to stop after a win.

And even then, this tiny group is less than one percent of all retail.

It’s not hard to make money in trading.
It’s just unbelievably hard to keep it.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

New paper coming.

[Pillage Capital @PillageCapital]

https://t.co/4X0pjek9s3

[大顺利 @xiaoshunli]

现在Crypto市场乱的一锅粥。一群人在狂撸Perp Dex，有点牛逼的DEX全部撸一遍，念念叨叨Lighter1分100美金，EdgeX一分200美金，下周暴富，吊打Hype！

一群人在猛干Polymarket，预测市场吊打全宇宙，百亿美金的估值，带来百万美金的空投！赌场，龙头，创新，这还不死死烧Gas？

一群人在等BSC中文币火起来。啊，币安人生只要上线，他妈的中文币就牛逼了，他妈的比肩铭文的创新就来了，币安人生去1B，哈基米先看0.3B！激情燃烧🔥

一群人拿着数不清的U等着打新。Buildpad各种打新，卷的就是几百个号的执行力，稳定币打新Stable，ARC，Tempo也是虎视眈眈，500万美金在手，怎么可能不塞蛋进去呢？三大稳定币塞进去就稳了，彻底稳了，稳的不能再稳了，大资金一个月翻倍，欧耶！

一群人在盯着X402。他们觉得Payaj伪龙头，什么勾八东西，还不如Ping这种第一个Meme来的牛逼。X402迟早爆发，币安先扶持Ping去2B，就像当年的Ordi一样。买了Ping就能翻身了！

一群人在赌Base起飞。Base随时发币，又搞隐私Veil，又搞Farcaster社交，又搞Virtual，又搞X402，反正Base就是进攻万花筒，随便怎么样只要找对爆发点了，流动性随时爆棚的，赚钱不是问题，是他妈的赚多少的问题！

一群人在等Solana重回战壕。说些什么TCG，卡牌游戏马上爆发了，Cards是庄在操盘给TCG时间；什么ICM一定会牛逼的，虽然Ben和Believe明显是畜生，但是ICM是牛逼的，伟大的，正确的。总有Dev能真正在Solana做出真正的ICM，像极了坚持中医不行是因为现在中草药不够原生态了被利益集团打压了。ICM行的。一定行……

还有一批人在狂干机器人赛道。他们觉得Web2机器人马上落地，辐射币圈，所以币圈的Openmind等等机器人项目估值要上天了，撸这些项目相当于21年L2，不发财都难！

最奇葩的是，这些人每个都觉得自己最聪明，自己掌握真正的Alpha，搞其他方向的人都是傻蛋，“只有我搞的方向才是最牛逼最赚钱的，跟我搞不一样方向的都大傻逼，很快全部亏完”。

我就问问，到底哪个赛道真的能发财啊？不可能人人都牛逼，但也不可能人人都傻逼的啊！

[0xSun @0xSunNFT]

印象里每次行情从简单模式转换的时候，都会出现大量看空币圈的言论，我倒是觉得比起过度悲观，更重要的是尽早认识到币圈的周期性。

要真说枯，从2月米莱发币到6月，比最近枯多了，如果现在对币圈感到绝望，那时候应该更绝望，但后来依然出现了DAT公司带动ETH主升浪、XPL理财理着理着本金翻倍、BSC接力SOL成为Meme主阵地等机会，还有X402，ICM这些热点。

大到BTC的四年减半，小到各类叙事带动的局部行情，没有币会一直涨，也没有周期会一直处于上升阶段。

而绝大部分人，是不具备影响周期的能力的，认清这一点，就能意识到，学会适应周期就是最优解，流动性充沛的时候就多投入精力多抓机会，觉得行情难玩了就及时止盈控制好风险，倒没有必要动不动就产生极端情绪。

无人问津处心怀希望，人声鼎沸时保持冷静，“生命像海浪一样有时高有时低，你是否告诉自己坚强渡过各种时期”。

[加密韋馱｜Skanda 🔶 @thecryptoskanda]

<浦东就是上海，x402就是波场>

. @hero_yang_v 作为前Coinbase Prime Wallet成员，应该算是简中离x402核心开发圈最近的人之一，也恰巧同时是铭文潮里赚到钱的一员

我这两天一直在跟他聊这个X402的玩法问题，他跟我在一点上是一致的：

一个发射方式能火起来，不管技术上多离谱，比如铭文、Pump还是今天的x402，绝不是一句“炒作”这么简单，而是因为实实在在满足了“发币场景”中庄闲两方的刚需，而这个刚需又是先前的方式没有提供的，才导致市场hype

在x402里，所有人似乎只注意到了facilitator”不去中心化，甚至以此认为是值得fud的点。但是作为老dev，我们一下就理解了其真正核心价值：

可编程匿名支付

x402怎么匿名？

x402可以理解为一个投币机：你往投币机里投币，投币机根据预设规则，自动给你吐一个商品，可以是数据、币、NFT、权限等等任何不是实体的东西

这个投币机的执行者叫facilitator，只负责验证双方签名合法性。没有任何机制限制作恶，单个facilitator也是中心化的

但问题是，这个facilitator是无许可加入就可以部署的，你也可以选择任何的facilitator。这样，不管你定什么支付逻辑，随便来个facilitator，就确保一定能运行

这对于匿名支付来说，足够去中心化了

懂的人，在这里已经能看出为什么

波场能量租赁

是的，x402其实就是Coinbase的”波场能量租赁“

币圈90%的人都不知道，波场才是全球最大的隐私支付协议，围绕着隐私支付构建了巨大的产业链，支撑了TRX的高流动性和币价，并且护城河深的连Tether都没办法

怎么实现：

1. 波场网络看似转账费用极高，实际上可以做到免费转账
2. 专业的波场租赁机构，通过冻结 $TRX, 每天可以获得”能量“，这是一种可转移但不是token的单位。

通过租用能量，可以实现让任何一个地址免费转账。比如：

- 我开一个新的地址收U，U可能是菠菜或者资金盘whatever的钱
- 我想要匿名转账，于是我去Telegram找租能量的TG Bot
- 我用A地址给他打TRX，他给我的B地址租能量，我的B地址里的U就能免gas转账
- 这个免gas即省了我TRX手续费，同时也切断了因为第一笔gas导致跟交易所账号产生KYC关联的问题，实现了匿名转账

这个设计，远比 $zec 和龙卷风聪明的多：不引人注意，不需要标榜隐私，还能支撑币价和赚钱

而且，由于这种需求的地址往往都是自动化的小额收款地址，租能量是通过TG Bot完成的，这种匿名批量交易本来就是bot-to-bot的关系，TG Bot其实就类似于x402里facilitator的角色

不开玩笑的说，波场才是agentic economy 第一网络，而且从2018年大规模运营至今，CB的牛逼，@justinsuntron 7年前就实现了

为什么这是更好的发射台？

庄家角度，发射首先要满足坐庄条件，一讲究匿名、二讲究控盘。不匿名，容易背锅；不控盘，不赚钱没法玩

散户角度：公平、公平、还是他妈的公平

这里的公平有两种路径：一种是Bonding Curve先来收割后到；一种是铭文式的free mint，价格统一，数量有限先到先得。

这两种方式对散户都有致命吸引力

x402相当于第二种的改良版本

以前铭文后来失败，原因是：

- 有正统性的在BTC：坐庄成本太高，搞新玩法成本太高（ARC-20,SRC-20等）
- 其他链的：有智能合约，脱裤子放屁，没有正统性

402铭文不一样：
1. 打着AI旗号，CB背书，算是有正统性
2. 本来就不受链的束缚，正统性不受限于Base。就算只认Base，那也够便宜，不耽误坐庄
3. 玩法完全自定义，facilitator只管检查钱到不到账

作为互助盘：抽水低，可以自定义规则设置清算门限，及时堵住套利漏洞，理论上转的久

如果Base聪明的话，就尽快出通用的发射平台，而不要困在自己的Farcaster里，管住 @jessepollak 的嘴让他不要乱喊，CB配合着给点上币预期

不要像之前每次一样，硬2周最多就阳痿。老dev们看了直摇头

[joyce @henloitsjoyce]

for the past few weeks i've been tracking how the x402 ecosystem has been shaping up

x402 allows for agents to communicate and pay each other in a secure and private manner, encompassing all of crypto's ethos

apps / protocols mentioned in this market map all use x402 in some form or shape:

Consumer apps:
- @heurist_ai (AI research assistant)
- tweazy by @aaronjmars (onchain tweet reader)
- @tipdotmd (AI onchain tipping)
- @snackmoneyapp (social payments)
- proxy402 (pay-per-link)
- @questflow (agent orchestration)
- @AnchorBrowser (AI browser)

Chains & protocols:
- @base
- @0xPolygon
- @avax
- @solana
- @NEARProtocol
- @SuiNetwork
- @peaq
- @AEON_Community
- @SkaleNetwork
- @eigencloud

Infra & devtools:
- x402 org
- @thirdweb
- @1shotapi
- @mogami_tech
- AXTP
- @mrdn_finance
- @mcpaytech
- @crossmint
- @fluora_ai

Wallets & payments:
- @coinbase
- @circle
- @crossmint
- @Visa
- @stripe
- @PayAINetwork
- @AcrossProtocol

Identity & access
- @credprotocol
- @GoKiteAI
- @snackmoneyapp
- @ethereum
- @Cloudflare

Indexing & data:
- @x402scan
- @firecrawl
- zyte API
- @itsgloria_ai
- @neynarxyz
- @pinatacloud

Cloud & edge infrastructure:
- @Cloudflare
- @vercel
- @awscloud
- @googlecloud
- @AurraCloud
- @AnthropicAI

Other / emerging:
- x402 foundation by @cloudflare and @coinbase
- L402 (lighting x402)
- x402 station

this market map was inspired by all those that came before me, and especially to the work of @obchakevich_

tysm to everyone who commented and contributed to my poll!

[王小二 @brc20niubi]

借着这条评论再说一下。很多人不想买或者不敢买币安人生的一个原因就是这个币受币安的影响太深了。其实这是一个经过思考辩证就可以完全否定的思想。

这个牛市人们有机会实现本金大幅度增长的机会其实也就那么几个赛道。有人在铭文赛道自由了，是因为币安现货上线了ordi和sats。有人在sol meme赛道自由了，是因为币安现货上线了bome，act，pnut，trump。有人通过参与预售或者预挖自由了，是因为币安现货上线了ena，wlfi，xpl。

你可能并不是通过上述几个具体的币种赚钱的，但币安影响的是这几个币种所代表的整个赛道，几乎所有人这个牛市赚大钱都其实是与币安息息相关的，币安是区块链真正的风向标。

话说到这里你就该明白，币安人生其实与你以前赚钱的所有币没有任何不同，大家都是要靠币安来最后引爆叙事的。币圈所有的大叙事大项目都必须上币安现货才能得到真正的价值实现。

最后我对币安人生的市值上限有个新观点，在万事顺意的情况下，我觉得币安人生是可以摸到50b的。假设币安人生最后带动bnb的涨幅为百分之五十，bnb这里涨五十个点2250亿。而一个公链的meme的极限市值大概是这个公链的百分之二十，也就是50b左右。

enjoy 币安人生

[Aka @k__kagome]

@grok draw me

[jack II @ruggedwithjack]

i say this to most participants who've been around for a solid while but never achieved something noteworthy/stayed average

whoever has a goal, a purpose, a podium to reach. the work that he has to do, he will surely have to meet the psychological requirements needed to achieve it.

somewhere between the journey, you will inevitably HAVE to break past your limits interms of effort put in

within this journey your way of thinking must advance, your way of reacting must advance, and your way of taking action must advance.

but that will never happen if effort is a flat horizontal line instead of one curving upwards, even if just one degree.

if a man wishes to extract pearls from the ocean, he will HAVE to dive in himself and get them.

similarly a person wishing for high achievements in life has to understand that the journey to reach it requires him to destroy his comfortable zone, and his old self

i dont know where this notion came from that obsessing over something is "bad" or you'll end up "depressed" and burn out. maybe its the older class who put in much less effort than what is needed in the market in this day and age

you start off at 0, thats true for your networth and your intellect (in the market), we all do, but the journey is what levels you up, it causes you to constantly advance in every single aspect of your inner self.

if you sleep all day and night, and have subconsciously accepted that you are scared of the "effort" and journey yet you still may succeed, its just wishful thinking.

Salaam and gn.

[0xSammy @0xSammy]

Hearing rumours of the AI Coin massacre, but little do they know the cavalry is coming with fresh innovation

"LA Vape Cabal said AI is the future and the tokens went -99.9% the next week" - @MoonOverlord

Here's a roundup of the AI x Crypto segment to plug the gaps

🧵(1/12)

[Zizheng Pan @zizhpan]

Again guys, this is not our Wenfeng.

[Aka @k__kagome]

@MarcellxMarcell JDwsW7GKrQUbua4nmDydAAaasUqoNdKEWVGD78q2pump $XKCD

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING! Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW. Go to https://t.co/GX3ZxT5xyq — Have Fun!

[冷静冷静再冷静 @hexiecs]

Some thoughts about $LLM: it's the perfect token to mock $ai16z.

1. It uses an AI-related term but is actually a funny meme without any utility, much like $fartcoin.
2. It emerged organically and has a perfect distribution—everyone had a chance to buy it even before pf bonding.
3. The $ai16z founder, Shaw, FUDed it at first but then created an exact cabal copycat of it. Unsurprisingly, no one bought his cabal shit.
4. $LLM has a chance to flip $ai16z, just like $fartcoin did to $Goat. You may think it's impossible, but I’d say you’ve forgotten how to dream. As Shaw the grifter continues to harm the space, this narrative and mindset will only grow stronger.