Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social)

Director, Elections & Analytics, MS NOW | Posting at

[MS NOW Public Relations @MSNOWComms]

.@MSNOWNews’ Director of Elections and Analytics Kabir Khanna made his first on-air appearance on @VelshiMSNOW to discuss the latest on the upcoming midterm elections.

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

NEW

Trump approval at 39% — new low point this term

Ratings of U.S. economy are down, with eight in ten Americans seeing rising gas prices

Widespread dissatisfaction with administration's job on economy, with marks on Iran also poor

More on other site: https://t.co/AONXb44wv2

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

@simon_bazelon @tbonier District lean, i.e., how much more Republican it is than the nation at presidential level

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term

New lows among women/White people/Trump voters

Marks on handling inflation also at low point, and just half say he's doing what he promised

More here: https://t.co/49hjqYAbaA

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

Over on other site, sharing analysis on latest polling showing Trump's declining marks across the board
https://t.co/MvRKIO5uZ6

[Princeton School of Public & International Affairs @PrincetonSPIA]

“75% [of Americans] felt that their wages were not keeping up with inflation. I saw a lot of economists report basically the opposite,” @kabir_here shared at our panel on what happened during the presidential election and why. Thanks to our Center for the Study of Democratic Politics for hosting an insightful discussion.

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

With California CD 13 results in (D flip), U.S. House wins are 220 R - 215 D

Net gain of one seat for Democrats from balance of power heading into election, resulting in very narrow GOP majority

(Note: totals include seats that may be vacant when new session of Congress begins)

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

@lxeagle17 Merced reported nearly 10K votes tonight (52% Duarte)

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

CBS News has projected Democrat Ruben Gallego winning U.S. Senate race in Arizona

That makes 47 Democrats elected to U.S. Senate in 2024

[J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman]

Harris leads by 5.3% in Virginia, which matches Hillary's 2016 margin here exactly. Interstate 64, which includes a stretch form Williamsburg to RVA to Cville, stands out as especially D-trending.

Weird to make a VA swing map with Fairfax/Loudoun moving redder, but here we are.

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

CBS News has projected Democrat Jacky Rosen winning the U.S. Senate race in Nevada

That makes 46 Senate seats so far for Democrats, compared to 52 for Republicans

There are now just two races outstanding: Pennsylvania, which leans Republican but may go to a recount, and Arizona

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

Sharing more post-election analysis here moving forward https://t.co/2XkwQ3gicU

[CBS News @CBSNews]

Some of the richest men in the world, including Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, have already become even richer as a result of President-elect Donald Trump's victory.

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

As student of American electorate/political behavior, I found the vote shift in this area interesting

Lost in all the finger pointing below is fact that shift here comes nowhere close to accounting for Trump win

Trump leads Michigan by nearly 80 thousand votes (Stein < 45K btw)

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

City of Dearborn — home to many Arab Americans in Detroit suburbs — went for Trump over Harris by 6 pts (42% to 36%, with 18% voting Green)

For context, 62% backed Clinton in 2016 and 70% voted for Biden in 2020

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

@lxeagle17 Good to be cautious with preliminary estimates, as vote count is ongoing, but we also need to account for any changes in group sizes (White share of electorate may have grown this year)

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

Still learning about electorate, but latest exit poll data suggests GOP gains driven by men of color

'20➡️'24 pres. vote

White voters: R+17➡️16
White men: R+23➡️23
White women: R+11➡️8

Voters of color: D+45➡️31
Men of color: D+34➡️13 (down 21)
Women of color: D+53➡️44 (down 9)

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

@williamjordann Yes, similar pattern but more muted...

As of this hour, exit polls show 2020 non-voters tied on U.S. House vote choice (with slightly more crossing over from Biden '20 voters than Trump '20 voters)

And first-time voters are R+9 on House vote

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

Current estimates from exit poll show 2020 non-voters favoring Trump — consistent with first scenario we put out Sunday, in which high turnout boosts his margins in battleground states

And among new voters, who told us this was their first time ever voting, margin is even bigger

[Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social) @kabir_here]

Close race estimated in battlegrounds means lots of things could tip election

We explore a couple scenarios by tweaking specific parameters in our model

Scenario 1: infrequent voters show up, driven by Trump-leaning men

Would boost Trump in enough states to put him over 270 EV