Kage

systematic gambling @kagecapital
working in banking, trading the markets since 2016

macro/fx edges • props • systems • shurikens

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Weekly Macro & FX Backdrop – Risk flows, catalysts & edge setups

Updating live every day + weekend review

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[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

Life advice nobody told you: Build momentum early in the day. One small win in the morning creates energy that compounds throughout the day. 10 minutes of reading. A quick workout. A finished task. Great days are built on tiny wins that ripple. Small things become big things.

[Opulent Vocation @OpulentVocation]

Thoughts from Michael Hartnett, BofA | This Is The Biggest Bubble Since The Railroads

The current AI-driven market rally resembles one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history, comparable to the Nifty Fifty or dot-com era, but investors are unlikely to aggressively sell before two catalysts occur: a major OpenAI/SpaceX-style IPO cycle and a clear Fed policy tightening shock tied to rising CPI from tariffs and inflation.

•AI mega-caps now dominate market concentration, with the “AI bubble” larger than past railroad, Japan, and dot-com bubbles by some metrics.
•Bond yields are the main warning signal: the rise in long-term yields and global cost of capital seen as dangerous for risk assets, especially leveraged consumers, private equity, housing, and emerging markets.
•Several macro stress signals are flashing: weak Asian currencies (KRW, JPY, INR, IDR), widening high-yield spreads, EM outflows, and BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator hitting a contrarian “sell” level.
•Historically, speculative IPO waves (Alibaba, NTT, Visa, etc.) often marked medium-term market tops rather than immediate crashes.
•Current gains are very narrow (“wealth effect, not wage effect”), while equal-weight consumer stocks remain weak versus the S&P 500.
•Despite near-term bubble concerns, structurally bullish on emerging markets and commodities.
•Preferred post-bubble opportunities would be consumer stocks and smaller AI adopters/disruptors rather than dominant mega-cap AI platforms.
•Geopolitics, energy, AI competition with China, and inflation are increasingly interconnected themes shaping markets.

Zeitgeist quote: “Everyone is now convinced that equities are the best inflation hedge.”

Feedback from recent London trip, main soundbites:

•“we’re long and paranoid,”
•“wants/needs to de-escalate Iran, and stocks pop, yields drop on deal,”
•“if UK gilts find love, everything finds love,”
•“European electorate shifting decisively right, Farage in UK, Le Pen in France, and you watch the AfD in Germany will win Saxony-Anhalt in September, their first state election,”
•“the fear in bonds is nowhere near as strong as greed in equities,”
•“Warsh will be rhetorically hawkish but practically dovish over the summer,”
•“US actions in Venezuela, Ukraine, Iran, Greenland, Cuba should be viewed through single strategic lens competition with China in AI, which can only be won by securing access to critical resources.”

[Kage @kagemarkets]

12/12
The 2010s belonged to tech and financial engineering.

The rest of this decade belongs to those who build, power, and secure the physical world.

The regime has changed. Position accordingly.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

The Great Regime Shift: From Asset-Light Tech Dominance to the Age of Energy, Infrastructure & Real Assets

[Kage @kagemarkets]

11/12
The bigger picture: higher nominal growth, structurally higher rates, larger deficits, geopolitical competition, and rising capital intensity.

We’re moving from an era of asset-light abundance to asset-heavy scarcity. Physical infrastructure, energy systems, and productive real assets are regaining their strategic and financial dominance.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Wednesday Macro Update / Risk flows

Rates / Fixed Income

-US rates selling off across the curve with G10 yields drifting higher, accelerating into NY open.
-Two-way flows in USD rates; better receiver-of-interest (pay-fixed) in belly and back end.
-UK rates continuing to outperform amid domestic political noise (Andy Burnham comments highlighting fiscal concerns).

$USD & Risk Flows
-USD rallying, fully reversing Monday’s losses and moving in tandem with higher US yields.
-US assets underperforming: equity futures lagging global peers, macro credit weakening.
-Risk tone cautious with credit opening marginally wider.

$GBP
-GBP underperforming after materially weaker-than-expected UK labor market data (prelim HMRC job growth -100k, unemployment rate 5.0%).
-Move lower consistent with broader softening trend in UK labour market and in line with peers.

Key Macro News
-Limited overnight flow; markets digesting Trump comments on scheduled (then called-off) further strikes on Iran.
-Explosions heard in Qeshm Island adding to geopolitical tension.
-Upcoming: Pending home sales; Fed speakers Waller and Paulson.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Weekly Macro & FX Backdrop – Risk flows, catalysts & edge setups

Updating live every day + weekend review

Thread 🧵

[Opulent Vocation @OpulentVocation]

Thoughts from Michael Hartnett, BofA | Door To Doom Has Opened

Markets are entering a dangerous late-cycle “melt-up” phase similar to 1999 (dot-com bubble) and 2009, driven by a combination of:

•rapidly rising US Treasury yields (10Y and 30Y above key resistance levels)
•persistent inflation risk (US CPI potentially moving back above 5%)
•extreme concentration and valuation in AI/semiconductor stocks
•a widening disconnect between stocks and bond markets.
•Once long-term yields break higher decisively, a bond market shock could trigger a sharp correction in equities.
•Semiconductor stocks are behaving similarly to historical bubbles, with the SOX index trading far above long-term averages.
•Current market behavior resembles prior speculative peaks where both stocks and yields surged together before instability followed.
•US household wealth has been massively inflated by equities, reinforcing a self-sustaining “boom loop.”
•Political backlash from inflation and inequality could eventually shift capital away from AI/chips toward more consumer-focused sectors.

The market is not necessarily at immediate collapse, but the combination of high yields, sticky inflation, AI euphoria, and stretched valuations creates conditions historically associated with bubbles and elevated systemic risk.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Weekend Macro Reflection #4

Been thinking about market psychology this weekend.

Panic at the lows creates forced selling, which sets up rebounds when people cover shorts and start buying again.

Euphoria at the highs doesn’t force buying the same way. Markets can stay pumped for a long time if the trend is strong.

That’s why calling tops is much harder than calling bottoms. “Looks expensive” isn’t enough to kill a rally. You need liquidity to dry up or growth to actually slow.

Right now I’m leaning with the trend: still higher, driven by AI and semis where momentum keeps feeding itself.

My positioning view:
-Long stocks (growth + AI tailwind)
-Long oil (geopolitics + reflation)
-Short bonds (expect higher yields from sticky inflation + big deficits)

Breadth is narrow and concentration is the game now, fighting it has been painful for years.

Big picture: let the structural uptrend run and watch the real stuff, liquidity and growth, instead of just complaining about valuations.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Kage Reflections #1

It’s weekend again. Another week in the markets has passed, and once more I’m sitting down to review and reflect.

A few years back I was obsessed with becoming “the trader”, the sharp athlete who could read every move, predict the flow, and live off the results. I had built this grand, unrealistic vision of what success in the markets should look like: big wins, constant understanding, and a lifestyle that depended on getting it right most of the time.

That mindset threw me against the wall more times than I can count. It felt like a toxic relationship, you don’t fully see how damaging it is until you finally step out of it. No one could really help me either. My self-confidence and belief in my own opinions were so high that I couldn’t hear anything past them.

The real freedom started when I accepted a simpler truth:

You don’t need to figure out the entire market to extract some percent from it.

You don’t need to be right on every move.
You don’t need to catch every price action day.
You don’t need to understand everything that happens.

Not every setup is for you. Not every volatile session requires your explanation or participation. The pressure of making your livelihood (and ego) ride on “knowing” the market was what kept the stress alive.

Letting go of that need, to be the smartest one in the room, to predict, to force understanding, created space for clearer decisions, smaller consistent edges, and far less emotional damage.

This week’s review showed me how much lighter trading feels when the outcome doesn’t carry the weight of my entire identity or financial survival story.

Progress isn’t about mastering the market. It’s about mastering your relationship with it.

Here’s to keeping that freedom front and center in the weeks ahead.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Kage Reflections #4

Weekend reflection.

This week tested me.

No matter how much experience you stack, how deeply you understand yourself, or how sharp your read on the markets becomes, you’re always one click away from losing yourself in the moment.

The old demon showed up again: pushing when the market was clearly saying no. Trying to be right instead of staying aligned.

That urge has been my biggest struggle for years, and it still creeps in when discipline slips.

That’s exactly why hard rules around stopping, touching grass for the rest of the day or the week, are non-negotiable in the system.

They’re not suggestions. They’re the guardrails that protect you from yourself. It all comes down to thy self.

From a macro and higher-timeframe view, this was clearly a no-trade week. But I ignored the bigger picture, dropped to the lower timeframes chasing action, and paid for it.

Classic self-sabotage dressed up as “opportunity.”

So here we are.

Resetting this weekend. Re-evaluating the process. Reviewing where the focus drifted and why. Then moving on lighter.

The edge isn’t never making mistakes.

The edge is catching them faster, enforcing the rules sooner, and refusing to let one bad shift define the next stretch.

Back to probabilities.

Back to discipline.

Onward.

[Kage @kagemarkets]

Week Prep | GBP/USD (Starting 27 Apr 2026)

Expecting volatility to return in force this week. This is a monster central bank week, five major decisions packed tight. Volatility spikes likely, especially Wed-Thu.

- My approach on $GBP:

Many ways to skin the cat right now.

I’ll take what the market gives day by day and gather more price information as we go.

Mon-Tue: Good trading days
Wed-Thu: Expect chop and noise around the data/CB cluster
Friday: Another decent trading day

- Red folder events to watch:

Tuesday: BoJ Decision + US Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: BoC Decision + Fed Decision + US Durable Goods
Thursday: BoE Interest Rate Decision + ECB Decision + US Q1 GDP + Core PCE + Eurozone CPI/GDP

- Monday play I’m watching closely on GBP:

Friday finished with slow, irritating upside-only price action, left the Asia low and a weak previous day low intact at 1.3450.

Ideal setup: A sharp fall on Monday that takes out 1.3450 early, resets the week cleanly, then we can look at taking out the obvious high at 1.3545. If London open brings a pullback that tempts longs, I’ll be happy to keep my shorts running.

- Macro backdrop reminder:

Still stuck between energy/inflation risks and growth concerns.

USD bids remain attractive on any risk-off or higher-for-longer repricing. GBP continues trading like the high-beta proxy it is, any relief strength looks suspect.

Stay safe

[Kage @kagemarkets]

If you got out this week alive, kudos to you.

Your system should have been screaming no trading days.

Chop everywhere. Any forced trading this week was pure capital destruction.

Sit back.

Wait for clear direction once we exit this range-bound mess.

Protect capital above all.

Still favoring a $GBP pullback in some way.