Omid 🍉

Engineer, Muay Thai coach,

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@propandco Totally agree. Talking to my relatives I can understand what the US policy is. People cannot undertake the financial pressure for too long. And all these negotiations are just prolong the pain and soon will turn it against the IR which nobody knows who’s in charge.

[Propaganda & co @propandco]

The U.S. strategy toward Iran after the so-called “ceasefire” should be clear by now.

As Washington has done in various arenas all around the world, it dangles the promise of diplomacy and peace over the heads of those desperate to survive, breathe, and return to normal life.

But the purpose of this diplomacy is not to produce a deal or establish a durable peace. It is to defuse whatever advantage their enemy has.

In Gaza, the U.S. secured the release of hostages several times, only to renege on the terms of the deal and keep the genocide and starvation campaign going.

This continued for years until Hamas eventually gave up all the hostages.

With Iran, the U.S. has managed to reopen Hormuz and add millions of barrels of oil back into the very system that is trying to destroy Iran.

As an enemy of imperialism and Zionism, Iran often attempts to avoid pain and preserve some level of peace. But in a struggle like this, peace cannot be secured through restraint. It can only be secured through a clear victory. And that victory can only come through escalation. And unfortunately, this escalation will produce suffering.

Weeks ago, many people were celebrating the MOU as a “total victory” for Iran. Even the best analysts and experts we admire repeated the same message: Iran strategically won.

But that declaration was premature.

There was a moment when Iran’s path to victory was clear. Global oil supplies were being strained, U.S. strategic petroleum reserves were under pressure, summer travel was adding stress to energy markets, and the American midterms were approaching.

Instead of committing to this path, however, Iranian negotiators pivoted from it and struck a deal that relieved pressure on the enemy that had just murdered its leader, slaughtered its children, and is dedicated to its complete annihilation.

It was the equivalent of an army giving up its position atop a hill and descending below to stand on equal footing with its enemy.

Victory was not secured, a lasting deal was not achieved, and there was not a sufficient exchange to make this charade worth it.

As the underdog, limited in resources and surrounded by enemies, Iran can only hope to win a war of attrition if the war maximizes pain within a very narrow political window:

from the moment the war began until the midterms in November.

But if the conflict drags beyond this window, the advantage can shift back toward the U.S. and Israel.

Iran's enemies has far more wealth, resources, business partners, military infrastructure, and allies to coordinate with.

Time, in the long run, favors Washington.

This is why the U.S. keeps weaponizing diplomacy. It agrees to terms, violates them, resets the conversation, and then repeats the cycle.

The goal is to prolong the conflict while disarming Iran and preventing a decisive response.

It allows the U.S. to keep jabbing at Iran, slowly grinding down its strength, stamina, infrastructure, communications, logistics, and public morale, while avoiding the kind of blowback that would force Washington into a genuine settlement.

That is the trap.

The U.S. wants Iran half-awake, half-restrained, and constantly waiting for the next diplomatic opening. It wants Iran to believe peace is always one concession away, one meeting away, one statement away, one “framework” away.

Meanwhile, their war on Iran continues.

Iran performed brilliantly in the early stages, but only because it was finally in a position to take decisive action.

Its survival against the world’s greatest superpower is an achievement in itself. But the U.S. does not need to destroy Iran in one dramatic strike.

It also has the option, and the ability, to exhaust it, isolate it, inconvenience its population, fracture its confidence, and wait for the internal will to break.

Iran cannot win by playing this game.

Iran’s real leverage is its ability to impose real costs on the system threatening to destroy it. Without that leverage, diplomacy merely numbs the patient while the surgery continues.

This is the core problem. Iran is trying to avoid the confrontation that is necessary to prevent its own destruction. There is no neutral path here. There is no endless middle ground. There is no way to kick the can down the road forever.

Iran is not Russia. It does not have Russia’s resources, nuclear arsenal, or air force. It cannot afford to fight a slow, grinding war on American terms. Even Russia is debating whether a slow war of attrition truly serves its interests. For Iran, the danger is far more severe.

Iran has one window. That window is from now until November.

If it allows the United States to keep stretching this conflict out, it will be slowly weakened like every other independent state in the region before it.

The final result will not be peace.

It will be the destruction of the nation and the far greater suffering of the Iranian people — the very suffering Iran’s leadership is trying so desperately to avoid.

The supreme leader, who is currently being laid to rest, understood this. This is why he remained firm in his position even in the face of assassination:

no more talking, no more deals, no more attacks and ceasefires. If you attack us again, it will be for the final time, and you will regret it.

He understood that the imperialist and Zionist plan was to degrade and weaken Iran slowly over time. In one of his final speeches, he spoke about “soft warfare”:

“What is soft warfare? It means using deception, lies, slander, temptations, and fallacious reasoning to make people waver on the path they’re following and to instill doubt in them. That is soft warfare. This kind of warfare is currently underway. It’s being carried out today as well.”

And he understood that this conflict is inherent, inevitable, and unavoidable:

“Iran and the U.S. have been enemies for over 40 years — what is this really about? In my opinion, the issue can be summed up in two words, and that is: the U.S. wants to devour Iran; the valiant Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic are preventing that.”

So the message is simple: stop deluding yourselves into believing the war is won. Stop pretending that an MOU equals victory. The war is not over. It has merely entered a more sophisticated and deceptive phase.

Please stop coping and saying Iran is demonstrating that it is more moral than its enemies. This is idealistic nonsense in a time when real bullets are flying.

Iran does not need to perform restraint for people who will call it irrational no matter what it does. It does not need to keep demonstrating that it is reasonable to powers that only respect force. It does not need to prove that it is a democracy and not a dictatorship.

It only needs to prove that it should not be fucked with.

This is a moment for hard power, hard leverage, and strategic clarity.

Either Iran imposes enough cost to force a real and lasting settlement, or it will be slowly ground down under the illusion that diplomacy can save it.

The fight for survival is not coming.

It is already here.

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@Enable_Zone @dimitrilascaris The stupid translator didn’t translate the question correctly and left out the hormoz question

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@Seraphinaf5 71

[Mohamad Safa @mhdksafa]

When the UN tried to declare food a human right, two countries voted against it.

The United States and Israel.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

If Hormuz is a matter of Iranian national sovereignty, then it should not even be mentioned in discussions. If you mention it, you are indicating it is up for debate.

Nations don't debate their territory unless they are negotiating a surrender.

[Kentucky Statesman @ky_statesman]

Modern day Israel isn't a country, it's the international headquarters and safe house for the largest organized crime operation in the history of the world.

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@KavehGooda125 @Safarnejad_IR Exactly

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@Safarnejad_IR @propandco این که احمد رو هاپوکریت بخونی با وجود اینکه در اوج جنگ به ایران اومد و کار درستی نیست. مطالبی رو هم که میگه خیلی بیراه نیست سوالاتی هست که من هم دارم. ولی چون دانش توان میدانی رو ندارم نظر نمیدم.

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@lamboness @Fx1Jonny No we don’t . Monarchists do .

[Stanley Cohen @StanleyCohenLaw]

Over the course of 30 years I have spent literally thousands of hours with the founders and leadership of Hamas across the globe. Nothing but the safety, and liberation of their people... their friends and family ... has driven or drives them.

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@ejmalrai What if diplomacy is used as a manipulation tactic?

[Ian Carroll @IanCarrollShow]

@ncole_r lol- you act like the Israelis weren’t in the middle of invading Lebanon…

How very Israeli of you.

Maybe they should have been in Israel where they (also don’t) belong.

[Richard Medhurst @richimedhurst]

Strategically speaking, the only scenario in which Iran should be taking part in this farce of an MoU is to buy time while finishing nuclear missiles, ICBMs, and submarines.

Use the US' own playbook against them, or get played again.

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@Ray75754409 @Persianserene1 Interpreting things like that is ignoring the Impact of geopolitics. I agree with you that the Islamic Republic betrayed its people in numerous occasions. But they were right about the geopolitical issues which directly affect affects people’s life

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@Ray75754409 @Persianserene1 Unlike IRGC , The monarchist didn’t risk their lives and didn’t win the war. The IRGC sees thing as if in the future the US breaks the deal which is very likely , they as well as the Iranian people need to endure another devastating war with less leverage.

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@Ray75754409 @Persianserene1 Without the resistance, peoples life will go to that of the Syrians and Libyans .

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@ejmalrai 2- Worse: with zero nuclear deterrence, tactical nukes against Iran's underground missile cities become far more thinkable for the U.S.

Pressure on Tehran? Higher than day one. Not a good trade. 😥

[Omid 🍉 @kahbasi]

@ejmalrai 1- Once Iran gives up its nukes, its position gets worse than Feb.
U.S. leverage over the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets—Iran can't quickly hurt global markets, but any blockade attempt would instantly crater its own economy.