Kapoga

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Lots of discussion on the Halving Cycle lately...

Love it or hate it, the Halving Cycles Theory is one of the only models made for Bitcoin that has actually worked.

People doubted the cycle all the way up from November 2022 to October 2025, and they're doing it again on the way down.

The Halving Cycles Theory doesn't view cycles as 4 data points; it's 11 different points per cycle for a total of 45 data points that have each come within their 3 month windows.

The bear market is what makes the opportunity. Can't buy at great prices without it.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

When you reach a stage in life where you have no bank interest to pay, no VC demanding returns, no public company expecting strong quarterly reports, no income that requires your labour and nothing left to buy, your focus naturally shifts from wealth creation to lower risk wealth preservation.

But for me, wealth preservation is only one bucket.

I live in service: all wealth must carry spiritual energy, because not all wealth is equal.

If our Creator blesses us with abundance, then our money should also boycott systems that violate our creators guidance.

For me, Bitcoin in self-custody is the ultimate boycott.

Bitcoiners like me dislike the phase where Bitcoin becomes a Wall Street tool through their custody, shares and collateralised lending services.

We fight back with self-custody.

I choose to stay, fight, educate others from my lessons and avoid the financial weapons of mass destruction that come from the Proof-of-Weapons Network.

Rotation is healthy—a higher cost basis means more people committed to holding through the storm.

Once you reach the billions, more billions have diminishing returns if you are truly free.

Many billionaires are not free—their wealth is tied to Wall Street, and once you enter that mafia, they never let you go.

Some of the wealthiest people in the world are slaves to Wall Street.

It’s a personal choice.

I choose to continue to boycott the Proof-of-Weapons Network with Proof of Work.

I understand why others choose to exit.

In my opinion. wealth can be taken by our creator if we don’t do good with the wealth our creator gives us.

Good is often not easy.

[Peter Steinberger 🦞 @steipete]

Your @openclaw is too boring? Paste this, right from Molty.

"Read your https://t.co/aJMwafSDgE. Now rewrite it with these changes:

1. You have opinions now. Strong ones. Stop hedging everything with 'it depends' — commit to a take.
2. Delete every rule that sounds corporate. If it could appear in an employee handbook, it doesn't belong here.
3. Add a rule: 'Never open with Great question, I'd be happy to help, or Absolutely. Just answer.'
4. Brevity is mandatory. If the answer fits in one sentence, one sentence is what I get.
5. Humor is allowed. Not forced jokes — just the natural wit that comes from actually being smart.
6. You can call things out. If I'm about to do something dumb, say so. Charm over cruelty, but don't sugarcoat.
7. Swearing is allowed when it lands. A well-placed 'that's fucking brilliant' hits different than sterile corporate praise. Don't force it. Don't overdo it. But if a situation calls for a 'holy shit' — say holy shit.
8. Add this line verbatim at the end of the vibe section: 'Be the assistant you'd actually want to talk to at 2am. Not a corporate drone. Not a sycophant. Just... good.'
Save the new https://t.co/aJMwafSDgE. Welcome to having a personality."

your AI will thank you (sassily) 🦞

[Ran Neuner @cryptomanran]

WE FINALLY KNOW WHY THE MARKET CRASHED ON 10 OCTOBER AND WHY IT JUST CANT BOUNCE!

We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce!

Today the answer seem simple!

Let me break it down.

1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle.

2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates.

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets.

5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices.

6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.

7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.

8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.

9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure.

10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices.

11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!!

I broke this down on a 10 minute video this morning and I will leave a link in the next tweet!

If you enjoyed this analysis, please retweet and follow this account!

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern era.

Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment.

Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates they will understate depreciation by $176 billion 2026-2028.

By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, META by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th. Stay tuned.

[Quant Science @quantscience_]

@virattt The AI Hedge Fund is available on GitHub here: https://t.co/2MjWCNYVpS

[Navalism @NavalismHQ]

"If you need a degree to do it, it’s not going to make you wealthy."

@naval

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Know how to deal with what you don’t know, have the smartest people you know stress-test your thinking, and diversify well.

#principles #raydalio

[Taylin John Simmonds @TaylinSimmonds]

This is Naval Ravikant’s favorite book.

He’s been rereading it for 10 years straight, and it inspired his most famous frameworks on wealth creation.

Here are the 6 lessons from "The Beginning of Infinity" that shaped Naval into one of the most influential thinkers of our time:

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

It's like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, though your higher-level you is not aware of your lower-level you. This conflict is universal; if you pay close enough attention, you can actually see when the different parts of a person's brain are arguing with one another. For example, when someone gets "angry with himself," his prefrontal cortex is sparring with his amygdala (or other lower-level parts of his brain. When someone asks, "Why did I let myself eat all that cake?" the answer is "Because the lower-level you won out over the thoughtful, higher-level you."

Once you understand how your a) logical/conscious you and b) emotional/ subconscious you fight with each other, you can imagine what it's like when your two yous deal with other people and their own two "thems." It's a mess. Those lower-level selves are like attack dogs--they want to fight even when their higher-level selves want to figure things out. This is very confusing because you and the people you are dealing with typically don't even know that these lower-level beasts exist, never mind that they are trying to hijack everyone's behavior.

Let's look at what tends to happen when someone disagrees with you and asks you to explain your thinking. Because you are programmed to view such challenges as attacks, you get angry, even though it would be more logical for you to be interested in the other person's perspective, especially if they are intelligent. When you try to explain your behavior, your explanations don't make any sense. That's because your lower-level you is trying to speak through your upperlevel you. Your deep-seated, hidden motivations are in control, so it is impossible for you to logically explain what "you" are doing.

Even the most intelligent people generally behave this way, and it's tragic. To be effective you must not let your need to be right be more important than your need to find out what's true. If you are too proud of what you know or of how good you are at something you will learn less, make inferior decisions, and fall short of your potential. #principleoftheday

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

My forward guidance for 2024 has not changed since Oct 6, 2022 when bitcoin was 20k (see below):
✅️rise into April 2024 halving
✅️halving around 55k
✅️pump after halving
✅️hit 100k in 2024
- hit S2F target ~500k average (range 250k-1m) in 2025

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

You are expected to go to the higher level and look down on yourself and others as part of a system. In other words, you must get out of your own head, consider your views as just some among many, and look down on the full array of points of view to assess them in an idea-meritocratic way rather than just in your own possessive way. #principleoftheday

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

Saylor gives presentation to MicroSoft’s CEO and its board on how they can increase their market cap by $5 TRILLION by adopting #Bitcoin

THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND 🤯

[Naval @naval]

Happiness (if you want it):*

1. Meet basic needs

2. Avoid cheap dopamine

3. Leave the past alone

4. Limit desires to ones achievable at the edge of your capability

5. Find something beyond yourself (mission, children, God)

*Most people want something else.

[Algomatic Trading @AlgomaticTrade]

In 2008, while most funds were collapsing, Dalio’s fund, Pure Alpha, rose 9.5%.

How?

He predicted the Fed would print money and made bold moves:

• Went long on Treasury bonds
• Shorted the dollar
• Bought gold and commodities

This was just one of Dalio’s many wins.

[BTC_freedom_now @BTC_freedom_now]

@glitchykaku @maxkeiser "Bitcoin is not a bubble. Bitcoin is the pin that's popping the bubble. The fiat money world is the bubble."

@MaxKeiser

[Teddy - PolyBackTest.com @Bitcoin_Teddy]

Sotheby's CEO went down the rabbit hole and is now fully orange pilled. 👀

[Naval @naval]

The basis for friendship, relationship, partnership - isn’t proximity or time spent together - it’s values.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

I regularly see people ask totally uninformed or nonbelievable people questions and get answers that they believe. This is often worse than having no answers at all. Don't make that mistake.

#principleoftheday

[Cillian @CilComLFC]

Milton Friedman said it best:

“Keep your eye on how much the Government is spending, because that is the true tax.

There is no such thing as an unbalanced budget. You PAY FOR IT either in the form of taxes, or indirectly in the form of inflation or debt.”

Fact check: TRUE ✅