Scarlett & Carter's BaPa

1st worked on Wall St summer '65. Recovering securities lawyer. Trading for a living 45 yrs. Not investment advice, don't be silly. 🇮🇱 linshek lei et hitchat

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @MikeZaccardi]

Health Care is now 2.5 turns pricier than Tech... @dualityresearch

The thing is, safety stocks can only be priced so richly, so they've done as much lifting for the SPX as they can.

The risk is that HC, Staples, Utes P/Es come in, along with continued negative momo in AI

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @MikeZaccardi]

US commodity price changes from the start of the Iran War...
Retail diesel 67.0%
Shipping fuel 67.0%
Jet fuel 65.0%
Naphtha 65.0%
Methanol 57.0%
Wholesale gasoline 48.0%
Ethylene 46.0%
Benzene 45.0%
WTI crude 44.0%
Retail gasoline 40.0%

But that was pre-midterms. Cembalest JPMAM

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Plain silliness from an angry Trump who has spent two years without any checks.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@JamesLawicki Let the rule of law and the Constitution be the guiding force. That is very distinct from revenge as Trump has practiced.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

There is little evidence that the new Democrat majorities in Congress understand that the midterm elections were not a "we want your policies moment" vs "we hate Trump's policies." The electorate wants a return to the middle. Revenge does not address economic concerns.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@NYGInsight Following the rule of law is different than having a policy of revenge

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

God dammit, not again! 3X leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL saw $2.2B inflow on Friday. The second biggest and just $17M shy of record set 3 weeks ago.

Hard to call a bottom when degens refuse to back off. Come on, go for a hike and touch grass or something. That's green too.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@ChristianD47006 Effing bizarre

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

This country would have been better served if Bozo the clown had been elected.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Trump offers UFC President Dana White the job of White House Press Secretary, asking him to bring several MMA fighters as assistants.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@Ksidiii 💯 agree. Simply taking short interest figures at face in the age of index futures & ETFs, sector ETFs, etc borders on analysis malpractice. Failing to examine nuanced reasons for short interest such as you suggest will lead one to conclusions which are inconsistent w/ reality.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@Biscayne52 As awful as that is, that is not what moves the needle for most Americans

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@NYGInsight We’ll disagree. Most people don’t care about “revenge.” They care about govt affects them.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@jedimarkus77 There is a remote chance that with the end of Trump in 2028, comes the end of Trumpism/MAGA. Perhaps that is more a hope than anything else. The U.S. remains, IMO, a basically center anchored country.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

The @WSJ Editorial Board suggests that Trump's firing of Susie Wiles and hiring of Stephen Miller is more than a little problematic. It represent a doubling down on a losing hand (Trump's own policies) which led to the midterm catastrophe. https://t.co/II1oVshezp

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

The inability to acknowledge one's errors deprives that person of the benefit of analyzing why they were wrong. Doing so would improve future opinions/analysis. Let's go with calling it "education." And yes, the public suffers when 'experts' on financial media don't want to learn

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

Says the guy who top ticked $NVDA and the rest of large cap tech and who confidently recommended of $ORCL $INTC $MU $CAT $BA Paramount et al...

"Physician, heal thyself."
- Luke 4:23

Is there any stated criteria in the selection of panelists?
If so, how is @jlebenthal still a panelist? @TheJudgeCNBC

Why aren't panelists recommendations time stamped so viewers can evaluate who is value added and who is not worth listening to?
Do panelists on the show EVER say.. "I was wrong."
Finally what is each panelists' investment process and methodology - what distinguishes them and qualifies to give recommendations on the most important business platform extant?

PS I, too, attended Princeton - but they never taught risk management of stock portfolios. They did at Wharton (where I also attended)... but it wasn't in Dr. Jeremy Siegel's classes!

We are but five percent off the all time high in the S and P but, with the tide going out, many are exposed already as swimming naked.

What do you suppose will happen with their recommendations in a ten to twenty percent drawdown?

We all make mistakes - I am often wrong and always in doubt. But I don't pretend to be right all the time and I take ownership of my errors. I model companies and try to deliver analytical rigor.

I don't bring these investment boners up because I am attacking you personally. Rather, I am being an advocate to the retail viewer @cnbc - to protect them from non rigorous investment recommendations that ma not be an outgrowth of disciplined and rigorous analysis.

If you or anyone else on @CNBC wants to dispute this or believes I am being ad hominem, please tell me why as I can always learn. @TheJudgeCNBC @squawkbox @cnbcfastmoney @cnbhalftime @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @RPKInvestor @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @annmarie @business @peterboockvar @convertbond @whitneytilson

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@JohnDoss1 Look at this charts of $XLF

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

@paulhodges1 I had a clerk when I was a CBOE market-maker. One day I asked him where he was from. He said “Persia.” I laughed, said there hadn’t been a Persia for 50+yrs. It was a couple of yrs after the hostage crisis. I told him it didn’t matter to me. Nice kid, his name was Shah!

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

It almost makes you believe that Iran's lack of movement (as far as we know) is an invitation to force Trump to renew military action.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN NOT SATISFIED WITH 'PAPER COMMITMENTS', MUST SEE PRACTICAL US MOVES BEFORE ANY DIPLOMACY - DEPUTY HEAD OF IRAN'S TOP SECURITY BODY TELLS STATE TV

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$SPY After the rally on the opening, the bulls hopes faded into lethargy. They never make it easy. Further weakness on a Friday might not be attractive. Or sellers get out of the way if they break above that tiny downtrend.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Trump announces guerilla warfare will be the theme for the lame duck portion of his second term by appointting Miller as his chief of staff. https://t.co/rNkLxnVV4X

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

More appropriate headline is that Trump seeks to preserve his renovations of the Oval Office which make it look a 19th century house of ill repute. https://t.co/oZStcrNXlB