Newsflash: Tesla is pretty European with close to 100% of the supply chain being European when it comes to Berlin made Tesla’s.
Considering the fact that Model Y keeps topping sales charts throughout Europe seems to point to the fact that a lot of people want to buy and experience products made by his companies
$PYPL Jamie Miller just finished her presentation at the UBS Conference. Key takeaways and some thoughts:
- Consumer pressure persists (now mostly a PayPal-specific issue)
- Expecting lower branded checkout growth in Q4, but full-year guidance unchanged
- Higher spending planned in 2026 → slower EPS growth
- No details provided on Black Friday/Cyber Monday
The problem isn’t Jamie Miller. The problem is PayPal’s inconsistent messaging and lack of enthusiasm, which is why they keep disappointing investors presentation after presentation.
Q3 felt like a turning point: OpenAI deal, strong results, stock hit $80. Cool, we're all happy.
Then what? Back to talking about slowing consumer spending and weaker branded checkout growth. After that, back to focusing on the negatives instead of the positives.
Venmo is killing it (Diego Scotti did great during his presentation last month), the ex-Uber ads leader is delivering, BNPL is growing fast, the stablecoin is gaining traction, PayPal is well-positioned for agentic commerce, and they have plenty of capital to accelerate buybacks, and pretty much NONE of this gets highlighted?
Don’t give me the “they’re frustrated about the stock price” excuse. They have full control over the narrative and still struggle to tell an exciting story.
Question remains: they clearly have the execution, but how do they finally learn to sell the story and get investors excited again?
Curious to hear your thoughts
Hello @acce , it's me again :)
This is my monthly $PYPL reminder. Please announce an Accelerated Share Repurchase Program and buy some shares yourself.
PayPal was a $90 stock in January. We're now -35% while being a better company.
That, to me, means there's a clear messaging issue.
We went from "shocking the world" to being extremely conservative and borderline scared of saying anything bullish about the company.
Just today, Jamie could have used the UBS conference to discuss the positive aspects you observed during BF/CM compared to last year and how the business has improved today. But instead, the tone was again, meh.
I wouldn't mind if you used that opportunity to buy more shares.
The dividend was also unnecessary.
Thank you for your attention to this matter
PS: I'd love to have you, Jamie, or Dr. Mark on the channel.
As a reminder, $SOFI CEO Anthony Noto has used his own cash to buy around 2.8M shares of the stock on the open market. So the number of shares he owns outright that he paid for is actually more than the number of shares he would be getting with this PSU tranche.
The man put his money where his mouth is when the stock was at its nadir, buying over 1.1M shares at $4.42, just 18 cents above its ATL.
That's true leadership and true shareholder alignment.
My views on $SOFI Shelf offerings
- There are many ways company can raise money but broadly divided in either debt or equity
- Rule of thumb is raise via whatever is cheaper if both can be accessed, so given @SoFi performance it is fair to say that if they want they can raise debt but they chose not to do it
- Now shares can be diluted using convertible also, which provide cushion to existing shareholders as strike price of these convertibles are 2-3 yrs in future and 10-20% above current price, $SOFI has done in past
- Diluting at the market plain shelf offering is IMO most predatory in nature and despite how good a company in deploying capital the nature of dilution still remain predatory in nature rather than opportunistic
- While $SOFI has been great in performance and good in deploying capital, it still can't be ignored how it decided to raise capital in a way that gives broader market the signal that company itself think it is better to dilute equity then raise debt
- If the purpose of cash is M&A, most company raise debt and dilute shares at the time M&A is announced
My preferred way is convertibles over outright dilution and it will be recorded in my books as bad mgmt decision, whatever the reasoning, its not like Red Flag, it is a RED FLAG. Period.
No plan to change my position in $SOFI, however more we learn on the usage of this capital, I will make changes based on that.
This kind of dilution is sadly egg on the face moment for retail investors
$SOFI had perfect quarter, nearly flawless consistent performance Q after Q, but I have to be objective, this wasn't done right!
cc: @FunOfInvesting@Futurenvesting
@Kross_Roads
@Couch_Investor@DataDInvesting@amitisinvesting@StockMarketNerd
Day 11 of asking @elonmusk to replace aging Autopilot software with FSD Lite. Thousands of owners rely on AP as FSD is only currently available in a few countries. AP still struggles with cornering and phantom braking - throw us a bone here! @Tesla_AI@SawyerMerritt
What if Trump is not going to be as hawkish as expected on Chinese tech?
Recent vibes suggest that Trump is softening on e.g. Iran/Chinese oil relations
See trailing EPS versus index in Hang Seng Tech here