ESC Ken

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@enthughesed Absolutely appaling! Karma incoming in 3 hours @ChrisWh08370492
@VVeedla
@escbetting
@Reality_Tim
@ge_aldrig_upp
@mat_rickard
@Panos_Zannettos
@eurovisionbets
@ferrisdayoff
@euroepiphanies
@NikosV34
@Eurogamble
@TvtipsUk
@MLT2022
@happytohalp
@MrAnderso7
@emocijus
@Barwineewindas

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@enthughesed It’s funny how some betting ’experts’ here claim that the most likely country to win is the one 4th-5th in the odds. I mean, it’s okay to say what is over/underrated when trading at a certain price, but to outright say a country trading @ 2% will win is just market manipulation.

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@enthughesed Shame on you 19 experts for not making this clear. If every option paid the same, you’d all bet for Finland right now. @enthughesed also

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@Syguu99 @SchlagerKaty Wow, thank you! I completely forgot about IG.

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@tgrandkatastrof @SchlagerKaty Sorry, I don’t understand what you mean with your point about Croatia and Finland. Can you clarify?

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@SchlagerKaty Wait, how can they have so massively different results? Was this from Saturday afternoon show or Friday evening show? If it’s from Friday evening show, someone is manipulating the betting markets. Huge sample size in both and Australia drops by 6 p.p in this one

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@chuckbasspoker I see your point. And yeah, I think AUS>FIN in juries, but to me the gap will not be huge. On the other hand, I think AUS will be closer to FIN in televote than most think. Especially if UKR fumbles the vocals like in the jury show. That will make Delta’s performance stand out

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@chuckbasspoker IMO, with ”composition/originality” favoring FIN, and ”vocal capacity” favoring AUS. Also more diverse juries could favor an act that has the more original staging concept (previously vocal ability have played a larger part).

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@chuckbasspoker I read that they changed the order in the list of judging criteria. Previously, ”vocal capacity” was mentioned first, now it’s going to be ”composition/originality” first. Still, it doesn’t say the weights for each of the criteria, but the change might affect subconsciously

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@chuckbasspoker Yeah, that’s the same order I saw. I think among the first 9, only Estonia should clearly choose FIN over AUS. That’s where I think the trap lies. I don’t have data on this, but I think Eastern Europe might go for more ’masculine’/darker acts over AUS.

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@dino__j So, is it the Maltese delegation who has been backing Malta @ 30 on Betfair Exchange? I’ve made so much money off of them!

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

For example, saying ”country x will win” when in reality, that said expert thinks that it trading at 2% is underrated. What if somebody reads that horribly simplified tweet when the price has risen to 10% and doesn’t understand that it’s now overrated? Be more specific!

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

It’s funny how some betting ’experts’ here claim that the most likely country to win is the one 4th-5th in the odds. I mean, it’s okay to say what is over/underrated when trading at a certain price, but to outright say a country trading @ 2% will win is just market manipulation.

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@Bensvision @CharlesGittins I reckon you can’t get much other odds than 1.01 by the point that there are two countries left? Smart players who know they are not the fastest to make the calculations will have already cancelled their offers.

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@Bensvision 7 first countries should be extremely strong for Australia: 6/7 have a strong female performers like Australia (2 of them with performers who claimed to have wanted to play live), 1/7 is Malta (western but far away from FIN, so will lean AUS). After that, it’s game on! #AUSvsFIN

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@Bensvision @BumbacComeback Looks like predictive data was used instead of actual data or was that an additional note?

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@skyginge @escxmatt It could also be that Finland got more jury points in the Eastern Europe than Australia (or was equal to Australia there). First we are shown Australia pulls a massive lead on Finland and it seems all over. Then the gap stops increasing…

[ESC Ken @KenEsc43222]

@Reality_Tim I think at least 5, but you should still add ”fewer than 5” option