Keplernico

Always make the audience suffer as much as possible

[XO @Trader_XO]

@AL_on_Reels 10/15/20/25 default

[XO @Trader_XO]

Hard facts from SZ tbh

After nine years in this sector and avoiding every major liquidation event since 2019 onwards =>

Survival comes from staying defensive, sizing up only when it makes sense, and never breaching risk limits.

Sizing up isn’t about over leveraging or going all in on a futures account, it’s about adding to winners while keeping risk tolerance below < X

I normally do it by:

1. Incrementally adding to a winning trade with a dynamic stop.

2. Or running a separate trade with its own risk profile.

Only on A+ setups would I risk (2-3% relative to my net PnL) initially, adding further once the probability is in my favour and I have a buffer to play with.

The size soon stacks up but the risk limit remains controlled.

SZ for me is one of the best I know when it comes to compounding and adding on to a winning trade, and what stands out is that he knows in which environment hes flooring it.

[ᴀʟᴛꜱᴛʀᴇᴇᴛ ʙᴇᴛꜱ @AltstreetBet]

Entire CT rn.

[Kevin Kelly @Kevin_Kelly_II]

Using $BTC as a benchmark, a typical cycle looks like this:

- BTC hits new ATH
- Suffers ~80% drawdown, bottoms 1yr later
- Takes ~2yrs to recover to prior high
- Price rallies for another year before reaching new ATH

The last few cycles followed this blueprint almost exactly…

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

Now that we are near price discovery, a few things to consider:

You are going to see some insane price targets for the end of the cycle.

Most of this is just bullish hopium and euphoria—be careful not to get caught up in it.

There is no way someone can predict where and when the cycle will end with a high degree of accuracy.

The majority of people are purely guessing; some will use technical analysis (TA) and other strategies to make more "educated" guesses.

However, these are guesses nonetheless.

To avoid falling prey to the obscene euphoria we're likely to start seeing, it's best to create a solid plan of action.

How will you exit the market in order to maximize your gains and minimize the amount you give back?

Below, I'll explain my thought process as it relates to my spot holdings, specifically Bitcoin.

Once the top is in, prices will begin to distribute.
This can last anywhere from a few weeks to a couple of months.

During this time, we usually see the last hurrah for altcoins.

After distribution finishes, prices typically fall off quickly, often dropping 50% or more before slowly declining for the remainder of the bear market as volatility dries up.

What this means is if you mistime the top, you can see 50% or more of your gains disappear quickly while you wait, hoping for prices to continue higher.

So how do you avoid this?

I'm going to share three rules that I used over the last two cycles to help me sell near the top and keep the majority of my bull market gains.

1 - Market structure.

Once daily market structure was broken in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the top was in.

In 2017, there were two clear levels you could have used as your market structure break.
Once market structure (MS) was broken, you exit on the next bounce.

For what it's worth (Fwiw), this also worked at the $14k top in 2019.

In 2021, the same applied for both the April/May and November tops.

This cycle has been a bit trickier, as the last 6+ months of consolidation have seen multiple daily market structure breaks.

So, instead of relying purely on daily market structure, I will also use the 3-day (3D) market structure for confirmation.

The 3D chart will confirm more slowly, but once that breaks, I'll be confident the top is in—barring some kind of aggressive reclaim

2 - Portfolio Targets

This one is pretty straightforward. I have a few portfolio-level targets in mind, both conservative and more ambitious ones.

Once those levels start getting hit, I begin cashing out.

3 - Price Targets

This is the most difficult one because, as I said earlier, it's a guess.

I've always erred on the more conservative side. In 2017, I started cashing out above $10k, and in 2021, I started selling between $40k and $50k.

Did I nail the top? No, but I was close, and when prices were trading 50% lower not long after, I was very happy with my sells.

Keep in mind, I was fortunate enough to buy near the bear market lows, so selling anywhere near the top resulted in an amazing return.

What happens if your price target isn't reached? Refer back to rule number 1. If market structure starts failing before your targets are hit, perhaps your targets were too aggressive.

Summary

The beauty of the above rules is that they all work in unison. Just because you've exited the spot market and locked in your gains doesn't mean you can't still trade.

If for some reason we nuke and break market structure, but then aggressively reclaim the level, you can always get back involved.

I'd prefer to lock in gains and potentially buy back higher rather than keep holding and risk giving back a lot in a 50% drop.

I didn't sell at the exact top, and yes, when prices kept climbing after I sold, I did feel FOMO. But that quickly went away when prices dropped 50%, well below where I exited.

You just want to be close.

This is all my opinion, of course, and it's what worked for me over the last two cycles.

I am also admittedly much more conservative than many of you here. This isn't my first cycle, and I don't need to 100x to "make it."

For what it's worth, my price targets for Bitcoin are $100k/$110k on the low end and $150k on the high end.

I'll likely be selling and locking in gains well before the exact top is put in, and that's okay with me.

This is an extremely long post, but I went over a lot of what is written here in my YouTube video last night.

GLHF.

https://t.co/h8GmDNfrqu

[Hawks @Hawks0x]

Trumps victory was the final piece of the puzzle.

The bull run is in full effect.

Your bags are packed, but if you don’t know when to exit you risk losing it all.

Here’s how to spot market tops and secure max profits ⬇️🧵

[Richie | Doges.lens ⌐◨-◨ @twindoges]

Found a video of the most brutal punishment for insider trading in Crypto

@Cbb0fe

[Metaquant @QuantMeta]

Not everyone will make it this cycle.

You need to shift your mindset and detach from the crowd.

Coinbase app ranking will not tell you when the top is in.

Start thinking differently.

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

In other words, when we set one specific goal, people will tend to optimize for that objective regardless of the consequences. This leads to ignoring other equally important factors of a situation.

Furthermore, let me tell you that most of the top signals mentioned on CT won't work this time.

What was an obvious top signal in 2017 wasn't in 2021, and the same goes for 2024-25.

We’re moving towards the right curve of the adoption rate, and now all retail knows about crypto - some heard about it in 2017, and then almost everyone heard about it in 2021.

Don't mix the signs of adoption with top signals. Don’t let the PTSD ruin your fun.

Another point to address is the shift of influence - BlackRock & Co. controls Bitcoin now.

They are the major ETF providers and own shares of each other. So, they control the sentiment around BTC now.

And they also own all the media platforms. They can literally shape the narrative as they want.

Let me re-phrase it like this:

If most of this run-up is driven by institutional bids, why would retail indicators be relevant?

The indicator for this cycle will come from the people who haven’t been onboarded yet.

Yes, It can be retail who still haven't touched crypto - "late majority" and "laggards" - but you gotta think on a bigger scale.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Think of those countries with a sovereign wealth fund starting to diversify in $BTC. Some already invest in stocks, so it might be possible to see this scenario.

• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion
• China - $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia - $150 billion
• Qatar - $300 billion
• Singapore - $500 billion

Corporate Treasuries

We have already seen this in 2021 with Tesla purchasing $BTC and, more recently, with Reddit disclosing some of its crypto holdings.

The trend is just starting. Once you see daily headlines of companies diversifying their assets into
,it might be rational to start derisking.

Stock Market IPOs

Coinbase IPO in 2021 was the first major crypto company to be listed in the stock market. We might see this time tens of crypto companies doing their IPOs, and at some point, one listing will mark the top.

Over-Leveraging

Big hedge funds, companies, and maybe even small countries over-leveraging in the final stages of the bull run and getting rekt could be another scenario we might see this cycle.

Rehypothecation Crisis

The next Luna-type of collapse might come from the restaking sector and kickstart the bear market. It seems like everyone is overlooking the huge consequences of a depeg or slashing event in this sector.

Gold Reserves

The ultimate ultra top signal could be governments diversifying a small % of their gold reserves into Bitcoin - the "digital gold".

Some additional minor signals

Low-Income Countries Workers Shortage

Another big signal is when low-income countries will have a shortage of workers because these are making $300 to $600 a month mapping the roads with hivemapper or other DePIN projects and earning a higher salary than what they'd normally get.

Happened at a small scale last cycle with Axie and StepN. Will happen at a larger scale this cycle.

Las Vegas Sphere

Time Square was full of shit memecoins in 2021. The Las Vegas Sphere with crypto ads running on it for weeks straight will be the version of this cycle.

Funding Rounds

A pretty secure signal again will be checking the volumes of VC investments. Funding rounds skyrocketing and, maybe overpassing tradFi ones might be the indicator again to start exiting.

“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

- George Soros.

[Innerdevcrypto @Innerdevcrypto]

Useful info thread

1/6

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

7 reasons why I think Q4/Q1 will be bullish for Crypto

[Inmortal @inmortalcrypto]

It's scary to compare 2020 and 2023 structures.

So similar that it looks like a simulation.

$BTC

[Brian Quintenz @BrianQuintenz]

The long awaited conclusory statement from UK HMT on its crypto asset regulatory regime has arrived. And it is wonderful.

https://t.co/gmhHTnbKxp

EST @griffitha could not have been more decisive in declaring the government's interest in embracing blockchain and crypto innovation:
"The government’s ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technologies remains steadfast...With the future regulatory framework now taking clear shape and the Financial Services and Markets Act now passed, the UK is the obvious choice for starting and scaling a cryptoasset business."

Specifically, HMT's response:

1) Excludes airdrops from the token issuance regulatory perimeter for now, recognizing that they do not constitute a public offering.

2) Clarifies that NFTs are out of scope, specifically citing in-game purchases and sales of digital items as an example of non-financial services activity.

3) Reiterates a go-it-slow approach on DeFi, and officially recognizes that:
"...DeFi may play an important role in financial services as the cryptoasset sector becomes larger and blockchain-based solutions continue to be adopted by financial markets. As such, and in line with the government’s innovation-forward approach, the government does not intend to ban DeFi."

4) Strongly disagrees with the suggestion to regulate crypto trading as gambling or an outright ban crypto, citing such approaches' divergence from international regulatory workstreams and the associated detriment to crypto-based innovation.

There is more detail required, especially around concepts of decentralization to ensure the core benefit of the technology is recognized regulatorily and customers are adequately protected from legacy risks of centralization. We remain optimistic on HMT's or the regulator's interest in further exploring and highlighting this issue.

The UK is taking a giant leap forward to establish itself as the global web3 centre. We couldn't have chosen a better time to be here. It's time to build!

[Matrix @matrixbt]

using huss’s little issue to tell y’all to DISABLE the cloud backup on the Google Auth app

it literally doesn’t make sense to have this shit enabled

enable faceid / password on the app

use a second phone as a backup (export function then scan the QR codes)

your 2FA app and your codes should always be OFFLINE, it’s like your wallet seed phrase, you don’t store this shit on your google drive bro?

you can also print the QR codes (they contain the 2FA keys - 10 keys per QR code) and store them somewhere safe, again print them offline, don’t store the QR codes pictures on the cloud, your phone or whatever you print them then you delete them

you could also put the screenies on an encrypted USB stick if you’re familiar with encryption

best thing to do would be 3 back up support just in case i.e: a 2nd phone, on paper, encrypted usb stick

ps: google Auth app is completely offline as long as you don’t use the cloud backup and totally tied to your device, it you wipe your phone or delete the app all your codes will be gone forever, do a backup you little noob

and please don’t use Authy 🙌

[Keplernico @keplernico]

@_cryptoditto Maybe 32k is too low, but something around 45k? EMA's are too far away and indicators are overbought in HTF.

People only mention not coming back after ATH, but what about the dip before halving?....Not going to happen, but dreaming is for free :)

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Altcoins are on the verge of flying, so here's my guide to catching the big winners:

&gt; How to spot the big winners.
&gt; 6 strong Altcoin setups right now.

Read along in the comments!👇

[Husky @huskyXBT]

Volume Profile for beginners, let's go!

Got a few people in my dms asking about volume profiles, value areas, poc, npoc, pdvah, ... because I use them a lot in my posts

We start with volume profile (vp), which is a way of visualising how much volume was traded at each price point during a time period we choose

The time period in this image starts at the 49k top and goes all the way to the current moment

The horizontal bars at the left are our volume bars for each price level

[Stoic @Stoiiic]

How to use Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) as confluence for Trend Continuation

Understanding the correlation b/w price action and volume can help tremendously in determining strength or weakness during consolidation. Let's break this down at a beginner level. (A THREAD)

[AlΞx Wacy 🌐 @wacy_time1]

Ultimate Staking Cheat Sheet 2024-2025

➜ Stakers in this cycle will be rich.

Discover the curated goldmine of potential ⇩

◢ Cosmos:
- Stake 10 $ATOM on Keplr/Leap
- Stake 10 $TIA on Keplr/Leap
- Stake 10 $INJ on Keplr/Leap/Injective Hub
- Stake 100 $OSMO on Keplr/Leap
- Stake 100 $SEI on Sei Network App/Leap
- Stake 25 $KUJI on Kujira Blue/Leap
- Stake 50 $AXL on Keplr/Leap
- Stake 1000 $STARS on Keplr/Leap
- Stake 10 $TIA on @milky_way_zone

This strategy can be considered as "Balanced".
- To determine the recommended stake amount, multiply it by 2.5-3
- For a low-cost approach, divide these amounts by 2

◢ Solana:
- Stake 1000+ $PYTH on staking.pyth.(network)
- Stake/Lend/Borrow $SOL / stables/others on @marginfi
- LP/Trade with $USDC on @Parcl (Use referral code "alexwacy" or any other for a forever 5% boost)

About $PYTH, more stake=more rewards (imo). In other cases, the more you can invest, the greater the reward.

◢ Ethereum:
- Stake $stETH or another LST ETH on @eigencloud to earn points
- Stake $stETH or another LST ETH on @KelpDAO to earn Kelp Miles
- Stake $ETH on @ether_fi to earn Loyalty Points
- Stake $ETH on @renzoai to earn ezPoints
- Stake $ETH on @swellnetworkio to earn Pearls

If you have limited funds, consider allocating a max $ETH to one project. EigenLayer pools are scheduled to open on January 29th.

◢ Manta Network:
- Stake $MANTA on Manta Atlantic; min amount is ever-changing.
- Keep an eye on @BifrostFinance

◢ Aptos:
- Stake 25 $APT on @PontemNetwork
- Stake 25 $APT on @AmnisFinance

Aptos shows promise, but it's worth considering if you have free liquidity or if you're a long-term holder. Also, if you can invest more, consider staking 50-150+ tokens.

◢ Sui:
- Stake 100 $SUI on Sui Wallet
- Stake 100 $SUI on @HaedalProtocol
- Stake 100 $SUI on @volo_sui

Imo, Sui Eco has the potential for a bull cycle. While it may not be exceptionally massive, it's worth considering if you have free liquidity.

◢ Blast:
- Bridge $ETH or stables to @Blast_L2
- Stake $BLUR on @blur_io

In both cases: more invest = more rewards. It a relatively risk-free option. Consider it only if you have a significant amount of free liquidity.

➤ Tips:
- Remember, it's not advisable to invest in all projects at once unless you plan to hold all these tokens for the long term.

- Instead, carefully select the projects that you genuinely like and are prepared to hold for at least a year.

- This approach will allow you to avoid unnecessary worries due to temporary price volatility and in a year you will sell your staked tokens for a much higher price and reap numerous rewards.

➜ Add it to your bookmarks so you don't forget it!