Muhammad Kholid

dream fighter - keep on fighting for better Indonesia

Economics FEBUI - IR FISIP UI - KASYP Germany- Juru Bicara @PKSejahtera. Warga Depok, Jawa Barat.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Important recent talk by Mearsheimer on current status of Ukraine War and what’s likely to happen next. Mearsheimer is the leading scholar of International Relations, and his predictions about the conflict have been highly accurate going back a decade.

Key points:

(1) Current status:
— The Russians are winning the war. Ukraine had the upper hand in 2022 but Russia has it in 2023. The Russians have not won yet, but Mearsheimer believes they are winning and will win the war. Why?
— This is a war of attrition similar to WWI. The goal is to bleed out the other side. “This is Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier standing toe to toe and beating the hell out of each other in the center of the ring.”
— Who wins a war of attrition? 3 factors decide: (1) Balance of resolve. (Both sides are resolved.) (2) Population. (3) Artillery.
— Russia had a 3.5 to 1 population advantage at the beginning of the war. This has grown to about 5:1 as a result of 8+ million Ukrainian refugees, 3M of which have gone to Russia.
— Artillery is the “king of battle.” Balance of artillery is somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 in Russia’s favor. The US doesn’t have enough artillery to give Ukraine; that’s why we’re talking about tanks and planes. “Two armies standing toe to toe trying to destroy each other with firepower.” Russia has a lot more men and artillery.
— Casualty Exchange Ratio is at least 2:1, meaning that two Ukrainians are likely dying for every Russian. The Ukrainians’ claim of 7:1 CER in their favor is ludicrous. The Russians are not doing mindless frontal assaults. Recent RUSI report shows that Russian tactics have improved.
— Ukraine pushed large numbers of troops into Bakhmut in a losing effort. Ukrainians are becoming desperate to conscript men. Russia has not fully mobilized yet.

(2) What’s likely to happen next:
— Russia will take the 4 oblasts they already annexed plus (if they can) another 4 oblasts to the Dnipro River including Odessa and Kharkiv. The goal would be to bring all the ethnic Russians under their control to avoid another “Donbas problem.”
— Russia doesn’t want to take western Ukraine (trying to conquer ethnic Ukrainians who hate them would be like “trying to swallow a porcupine”); but their goal is to turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state so it can’t threaten them or be used as a Western bulwark on their border.
— There’s not going to be a peace agreement. Best case is a frozen conflict. Why? (1) the parties can’t agree on territory. (2) they can’t agree on neutrality. (3) Hyper-nationalism. Hatred on both sides makes a deal impossible. (4) No trust. Western leaders and Zelensky admitted that they had no intention of honoring the Minsk agreements and entered them just to buy time.
— George Kennan, Adm. Bill Perry, Amb. Jack Matlock, and Gen. Shalikashvili said that NATO expansion was a prescription for disaster. They were right. It’s only going to get worse. Mearsheimer hopes to be wrong about this, but this is his prediction.
— F16s won’t make a difference because it takes a long time to train good pilots. Also the Russians have very good air defense, and their own Air Force is ready to engage. Biggest risk of F16s is that Ukraine uses them to attack targets inside of Russia, creating an escalation, which could draw the US deeper into the war.
— Mearsheimer believes that if the Russians are losing the war, the likelihood of nuclear use to rescue the situation is high. (The war is existential for the Russians.) But as it stands now, the odds of nuclear use are very low because the Russians are winning.

https://t.co/LcBBHvOY6M

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

@ch_chotimah2 @PKSejahtera @hnurwahid Portal Berita Resmi Pemerintah Kota Depok - Angka Stunting di Depok Lebih Rendah dari Nasional, Kepala DP3AP2KB: Dukungan Kepala Daerah Sangat Besar
https://t.co/mOgxGq7wFO

Cc @RajaJuliAntoni

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

@ch_chotimah2 @PKSejahtera @hnurwahid Dalam aspek kesejahteraan sosial, penurunan angka stunting pun cukup impresif, yakni mencapai 12,6% melampaui target nasional 14%. Tak heran jika Kementrian PPPA berikan 5 kali berturut2 dapat predikat Kota Layak Anak.

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

@ch_chotimah2 @PKSejahtera @hnurwahid Portal Berita Resmi Pemerintah Kota Depok - Kota Depok Tingkat Kemiskinannya Terendah Kelima di Indonesia
https://t.co/0OpAfNELYW

Cc @RajaJuliAntoni @hnurwahid

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

@ch_chotimah2 @PKSejahtera @hnurwahid Dibawah kepemimpinan kader PKS, capaian Depok tentu ada progress dan ada jg pekerjaan rumah. Fyi, Kota Depok masuk 5 kota terbaik dlm pengentasan kemiskinan se-Indonesia 2023. Dan IPM masuk tiga besar terbaik di Jabar.

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

@JabbzAbdul @psi_id Jokowisme= mengeruk SDA sepuasnya? :)

[Awalil Rizky @AwalilRizky]

Pemerintah pernah memakai istilah rasio pajak atas PDB: 1. pajak dalam arti sempit (tidak termasuk Bea dan Cukai); 2. perpajakan (seluruh jenis perpajakan pemerintah pusat); 3. pajak dalam arti luas (perpajakan ditambah PNBP penerimaan Sumber Daya Alam). Semua cenderung menurun.

[Denny Indrayana @dennyindrayana]

Mohon izin siang dan malam ini, saya hadir live via zoom di dua program yang berbeda yaitu Political Show CNN Indonesia dan Metro Siang Metro TV membicarakan soal "𝘊𝘢𝘸𝘦-𝘤𝘢𝘸𝘦𝘯𝘺𝘢 𝘗𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯 𝘑𝘰𝘬𝘰𝘸𝘪, 𝘚𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘓𝘢𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘬𝘦 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘪 & 𝘚𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘵 𝘛𝘦𝘳𝘣𝘶𝘬𝘢 𝘜𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘬 𝘔𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘪". Saksikan dan simak agar tidak gagal faham. 🙏

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

PSI sedang Pansos politik saja. Mau nebeng popularitas Kaesang-Jokowi. Politik gimmick, kayak kue donat-nya si Panji : ) @RajaJuliAntoni

[Hidayat Nur Wahid @hnurwahid]

Gibran Bilang Kali Ini Setuju @PKSejahtera soal Kaesang Tak Maju Pilwalkot Depok. https://t.co/akYVqJn33i

[Hidayat Nur Wahid @hnurwahid]

Gibran Bilang Kali Ini Setuju @PKSejahtera soal Kaesang Tak Maju Pilwalkot Depok. https://t.co/akYVqJn33i

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

Innalilahi wainnailaihi rajiun....

#PrayForTurkey

https://t.co/qz5pQ9Dunm

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

Bismillah..

[Anies Rasyid Baswedan @aniesbaswedan]

Dengan mengucap bismillah, kepercayaan itu kini telah diembankan.

Kemarin @PKSejahtera telah menyatakan dukungannya, melengkapi deklarasi Partai @NasDem pada 3 Oktober 2022, dan pernyataan @PDemokrat pada 26 Januari 2023, maka presidential threshold 20% telah terlampaui.

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

Pernyataan Media PKS tentang Koalisi Pencapresan 2024 |

Pernyataan lengkap dari Pak @msi_sohibuliman pada konpres tadi malam.
https://t.co/ygSbiXLHRi

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

Bismillah...mohon doanya.
Semoga mendatangkan kebaikan untuk Indonesia.

https://t.co/kmjG6otWSN

[Zulfikar Akbar @zoelfick]

Masih usia 11 tahun, ia membawa sendiri ayahnya dari kampungnya di Pidie Jaya ke RS Cut Mutia di Aceh Utara.

Jarak yang ia tempuh dengan becaknya itu hampir sama jauhnya dari Jakarta ke Bandung.

[DPP PKS @PKSejahtera]

PKS Sambut Baik Usulan Pembentukan Sekretariat Perubahan, Deklarasi Tunggu Arahan Ketua Majelis Syura

"Kami berharap, hal tersebut akan semakin memperkuat soliditas dan kebersamaan serta memperkuat komitmen kerja sama koalisi," ~@kholidmuhammad

https://t.co/R1VZDwWxzr

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

Hampir 2 kali lipat? Kok bisa? Benar2 memberatkan...

[kumparan @kumparan]

Menteri Agama Yaqut Cholil Qoumas mengusulkan adanya kenaikan biaya haji tahun ini dari semula Rp 39 juta pada 2022, melonjak menjadi Rp 69 juta. #newsupdate #update #news #storyshot https://t.co/yD3cQL1ozU

[Muhammad Kholid @kholidmuhammad]

https://t.co/rIZ1P4lMrz

Resolusi tahun 2023 :)