@BlacklionCTA@dampedspring Both Hartnett and @FedGuy1222 think room for tax increase is there as compared to Europe and other advanced economies and so in that sense US fiscal situation is less dire. Austerity is a strong word maybe stock correction and tax incr on boomer real estate wealth.
@dampedspring@fejau_inc If wage price pressure start building in next couple of reports then hiking cycle i.e at least 2 hikes cant entirely be ruled out
@AndreasSteno But Warsh is travelling with Bessent meaning political hikes will be discouraged under his chairmanship esp Beth Hammacks argument for consumer loosing faith in Fed /2% tgt (Never ending train of transitory sources of inflation) as basis to hike into a supply shock.
@Pataramesh All of this is going to lead to West investing 100's of billions more in toys to address the Iran issue. Not sure anything short of Nuclearization of Iranian artilery and control over Hormuz would guarantee long term security.
No one on the FOMC will say this explicitly, but there will be no stopping the momentum toward a hike if oil remains this high going into the September meeting.
Dec oil <$1 from new highs.
If oil is this high, there is no realistic CPI/PPI/NFP number that will stop a hike.