☀️Nika😆

to the moon

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

The Agentic AI cycle structurally expands infrastructure TAM. Specifically, Agentic AI decouples cognitive output from headcount (i.e. you don’t need more people to do “more”) and delivers productivity gains of 10x, 100x, and beyond. $DELL $HPE $MU $HPQ $SKHY

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

Debate on cause of rise of the long term bond yields:

Two models, both produced by economists affiliated with the Fed:

1) ACM (it’s all real yields/growth/ppl expect Fed to hike)

2) KM (it is term premium)

Warsh picked the former interpretation. As did the rest of the FOMC, implied in the SEP

More than a year ago, debate on whether tariffs would generate persistent vs transitory inflation:

Two models also from Fed affiliated economists:

1) tariffs generate persistent inflation (new research)

2) tariffs deflationary in the long term, and initially a one off price change (from a long standing structural model that proved to be correct in 2018)

The FOMC adopted the first interpretation, until facts showed otherwise today.

Tell me that economics is not a dismal science.

At least the Fed should debate about this, disagree. That is not what the SEP show.

Group think is rearing its ugly head inside the Fed again.

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

gentle reminder - this is possibly the most important chart a bond trader *still* needs to look at.

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

@3PeaksTrading So cute

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

GS：That investor buying on COMEX can add to the tariff-driven New York-London spread and, where the spread exceeds arbitrage costs, attract more metal into the US, further tightening liquidity outside the US. $HG_F $GC_F $GLD #Copper #Gold

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

Treasury shorts are stacked across the whole curve, so it may not be long before every tenor trades above 5%. $TLT #US10Y

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

FEDWATCH: “.. there’s little standing in the way of a move toward 5.30% in the near term. But that’s not where the move should end.

.. the technical upside for the 10Y now sits near 6.25%.”

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

@VolSignals we've seen far too much of this since summer. Take Tuesday: "the market saw buyers of VIX Oct optionality - both the Oct 17 straddle and Oct 18 puts were bought 20k times."

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

Anthropic drops Claude Opus 5.5 - running costs ~40% below Opus 5. OpenAI rolls out GPT-6 Sol and Luna at roughly half the prior gen. Cheaper inference is a tailwind for ISVs and agentic workloads... but mid/low-end third-party APIs are the ones getting squeezed.

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

Big divergence in AI... $SOXX is down ~14% from its June high… 10 components are still down more than 30% from their 52-week highs, and the average constituent is off ~26%.

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🇨🇳 🌎 #China’s share of global container exports soars to 40% - Financial Times
https://t.co/ipENw7gEVg

https://t.co/3vypoJ5rks

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

Flows into the Roundhill MAG7 $MAGS $NVDA $AAPL $META $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

JPM TMT:Our FLOWS are much more active today - seeing LOs adding to $META and semis $SOXX /networking names. LOs continue to sell out of AI Vulnerable (and tax loss candidates) i.e. $NFLX

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

JPM：we expect $META #Muse adoption and engagement to continue to ramp, with Meta beginning to prove out AI returns—and leadership—beyond its core advertising platform, with a TAM potentially in the tens of trillions of dollars

[Dan Nystedt @dnystedt]

Prices of silicon wafers used in semiconductor production are set to rise in 2027 as more firms ink long term agreements (LTAs), media report, noting capacity expansion for both memory and logic chips is fueling demand.
12-inch Epitaxial wafers: estimated up 15%-25%
12-inch Polished Wafers: seen up over 40% for most, 50% for 2nd tier clients

GlobalWafers, Taiwan’s biggest maker, is seen at $122 average selling prices (ASPs) in 2027, up from $92 for 12-inch silicon wafers this year, and up to $166 in 2028. Shipments are seen rising to 16.174 million wafers per quarter next year, from 11.907 million per quarter this year. https://t.co/HXxlgTiCXx

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

@CRUDEOIL231 Put skew isn't cheap

[Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 @cfromhertz]

$META Meta’s Muse Drags Down Stocks That Depend on ‘Consumer Inertia’ (Bloomberg)

🔹Shares of major banks $KBE $XLF, insurers and online travel agencies slid as investors fear that tools like Meta Platforms Inc.’s personal AI agent could disrupt businesses that benefit from consumer inertia.
🔹Companies that help users book travel accommodations, such as Expedia Group Inc. and Booking Holdings Inc., were hit, and industries that rely on recurring bills, negotiable pricing and add-ons could come under pressure.
🔹Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said telecoms, insurance and utilities are the industries to watch if AI agents make it easier and cheaper to switch service providers.

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

$NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO CDS spreads widening
h/t Michael J. Kramer

[glassnode @glassnode]

$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.

MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.

This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

sold $MU 1070 puts for Oct. 2.. earnings play $DRAM

[☀️Nika😆 @kinginmoon1]

GS Privorotsky：Inference is not exactly the same trade as frontier training. Maybe the next leg isn't simply a handful of labs spending trillions building ever larger clusters……it broadens what AI infrastructure demand looks like. $META $SOXL $SOXS $QQQ