Kkachival

The Prediction Market for Asia's Iconic Moments.
Built on @GIWA_by_Upbit

[Kkachival @kkachival]

Meet KkachiVal, a prediction market for Asia.

Every market is a question Asia is already arguing about, with a live price on each answer.

We don't call it. You do.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

@gekitekishouri He needs this hat

[Kkachival @kkachival]

@hayakore All of them go hard

[Kkachival @kkachival]

@Mriq68641780 @NightSkyToday You can use radiators

[Kkachival @kkachival]

TSMC set its own Q3 gross margin forecast. Last quarter it cleared the bar.

Results drop Oct 15.
Does it beat its own number again?

Asia's biggest moments, priced by the people watching them. This is one.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

Just FYI
#Worlds2026

[forest @forestwithout]

the only toplane tierlist u need for worlds 2026

[Kkachival @kkachival]

GTA V sold ~387K retail copies in its first week in Japan. Best launch ever for a Western game there.

GTA VI lands Nov 19.

500K+ boxes in launch week? Japan's market says yes or no.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

@Rainmaker1973 Would love to join.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

Has K-pop actually peaked, or is this a reset?

[pannchoa @pannchoa]

JYP claims that Kpop has reached its limit and that Korean private and public sectors need to chime in to save it
https://t.co/pafCWHUygY

[Kkachival @kkachival]

@lmc_security Gold out-trading ETH on Kalshi is wild. People just wanna bet on stuff they already watch. Prediction markets are growing up in real time

[Kkachival @kkachival]

For a moment, there was a rumor this was the last Asian Games esports event ever.

Not quite. Esports is staying.

2018: demo. 2022: 7 medal events. 2026: 11.

Korea took LoL. Myanmar shocked MLBB. Japan won Pokémon UNITE. China led with 3 golds.

Next chapter: Doha.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

LCK teams have won 10 of the last 13 Worlds, including the last four straight. T1 alone took three in a row.
Worlds 2026 starts Oct 15 in LA with four LCK teams in the field.

Will an @LCK Team Win #Worlds2026?

[Kkachival @kkachival]

@primo_data This is the piece Asia is missing. No regulated venue means no public tape, so the region's biggest questions still have no shared number.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

21x in a year, mostly on US sports. Asia's leagues and esports are still barely priced.

[Outcome @Outcomexyz]

JUST IN: Prediction market volume in Q3 2026 reached $188 billion, around 21x higher than Q3 2025 and 70% up from the previous quarter.

~40% of that volume came from sports markets

Financial markets on Outcome are up next

[Kkachival @kkachival]

$18M in gas sounds like a lot until you see it's $1.80 per $10K traded.

Cost was never Polymarket's problem. Throughput is. It filled 82% of Polygon's fee target on its own.

The next race in prediction markets isn't cheaper settlement. It's room to grow.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Would Polymarket be better off with Solana, Arbitrum, Base, or its own L2? https://t.co/P1Jd0gP7Jh

[Kkachival @kkachival]

Whether this generation of traders is making money or losing it is a separate story.

What’s changed is how little friction there is now.

Prediction markets aren’t new, and neither is trading from your phone. But there are more markets, smaller positions, easier onboarding, and better tools to find and trade them.

So the edge isn’t just access.

It’s knowing something the market hasn’t priced in yet.

A local league. A regional election. A fandom. A policy fight happening in a language most traders don’t read.

As markets get easier to access, local knowledge starts to matter more.

[Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC]

.@GunjanJS on her latest article on Gen Z traders dominating the prediction market industry: https://t.co/kKoVlz8nab

[Kkachival @kkachival]

You don’t need an unbiased crowd to produce an unbiased prediction. You need a market where people can profit from correcting other people’s biases.

Prediction markets turn disagreement and bias into something economically testable.

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Are prediction markets biased by white men? Republicans? Young people?

Dartmouth professor Eric Zitzewitz analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data, spanning multiple exchanges and countries. His findings:

• No systematic evidence of political bias across different eras, countries, and offices.
• No systematic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates’ race, gender, or age in the recent elections studied.
• Traders weren’t always representative of the voting population, yet that didn’t translate into systematic bias in election forecasts.

The paper points to a powerful mechanism: people who spot a mispriced outcome have a financial incentive to correct it. Even if some participants trade on personal preferences, informed traders keep prices grounded in reality.

Open competition incentivizes research, challenges consensus, and gives the best ideas a chance to surface. People are rewarded for being right, regardless of their background or preferences.

The paper does find some pricing biases, including slight overpricing of longshots and underpricing of favorites. Its central finding on election markets remains: no systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.

In an increasingly polarized world, these markets give us something valuable: an impartial source of information shaped by people with an incentive to get it right.

[Kkachival @kkachival]

🥋 JIU-JITSU Later rounds:

• Men’s −94kg — Quarterfinals 08:05–08:20; semifinals 08:25 / 08:30; repechages 08:35 / 08:40

• Men’s −77kg — Round of 16 from 07:45; quarterfinals 08:25–08:40; semifinals 08:45 / 08:50; repechages 08:55 / 09:00

• Women’s −52kg — Quarterfinals 09:30–09:45; semifinals 09:50 / 09:55; repechages 10:00 / 10:05

Medal matches:
• 12:30 / 12:35 — Men’s −77kg bronze
• 🥇 12:40 — Men’s −77kg final
• 12:45 / 12:50 — Men’s −94kg bronze
• 🥇 12:55 — Men’s −94kg final
• 13:00 / 13:05 — Women’s −52kg bronze
• 🥇 13:10 — Women’s −52kg final

[Kkachival @kkachival]

🥋 JIU-JITSU

Men’s −77kg — round of 32:

• 07:00 — Philippines 🇵🇭 vs Mongolia 🇲🇳
• 07:05 — South Korea 🇰🇷 vs Thailand 🇹🇭
• 07:10 — Malaysia 🇲🇾 vs Jordan 🇯🇴
• 07:15 — Japan 🇯🇵 vs Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
• 07:20 — Singapore 🇸🇬 vs Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬
• 07:25 — Philippines 🇵🇭 vs Mongolia 🇲🇳
• 07:30 — UAE 🇦🇪 vs Vietnam 🇻🇳
• 07:35 — Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬 vs Kuwait 🇰🇼
• 07:40 — Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 vs Singapore 🇸🇬

Men’s −94kg — round of 32:
• 07:00 — Qatar 🇶🇦 vs Vietnam 🇻🇳
• 07:05 — Jordan 🇯🇴 vs Mongolia 🇲🇳
• 07:10 — Afghanistan 🇦🇫 vs Iran 🇮🇷
• 07:15 — Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬 vs Vietnam 🇻🇳
• 07:20 — Kuwait 🇰🇼 vs Mongolia 🇲🇳

Confirmed men’s −94kg round-of-16 pairings:
• 07:30 — Bahrain 🇧🇭 vs South Korea 🇰🇷
• 07:50 — Thailand 🇹🇭 vs Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
• 07:55 — South Korea 🇰🇷 vs Jordan 🇯🇴

Women’s −52kg:
• 08:45 — Round of 32: Vietnam 🇻🇳 vs Kazakhstan 🇰🇿
• 08:55 — Round of 16: South Korea 🇰🇷 vs Tajikistan 🇹🇯
• 09:00 — Mongolia 🇲🇳 vs Japan 🇯🇵
• 09:05 — Philippines 🇵🇭 vs Thailand 🇹🇭
• 09:10 — South Korea 🇰🇷 vs Laos 🇱🇦
• 09:15 — Thailand 🇹🇭 vs Singapore 🇸🇬
• 09:20 — Mongolia 🇲🇳 vs UAE 🇦🇪
• 09:25 — Vietnam 🇻🇳 vs Philippines 🇵🇭

[Kkachival @kkachival]

🥋 JUDO

09:00 — Elimination session begins on two tatamis.

Men’s −90kg opening matchups:

• South Korea 🇰🇷 vs Indonesia 🇮🇩
• Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 vs Tajikistan 🇹🇯
• China 🇨🇳 vs Thailand 🇹🇭
• Iran 🇮🇷 vs Cambodia 🇰🇭
• Japan 🇯🇵 vs Nepal 🇳🇵
• Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 vs UAE 🇦🇪
• Chinese Taipei 🇹🇼 vs Mongolia 🇲🇳
• Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬 vs Sri Lanka 🇱🇰

Women’s −78kg:
• Mongolia 🇲🇳 vs Iran 🇮🇷
• Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 vs Philippines 🇵🇭
• Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 vs Bangladesh 🇧🇩
• Lebanon 🇱🇧 vs Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬

Men’s −100kg:
• Japan 🇯🇵 vs Philippines 🇵🇭
• Lebanon 🇱🇧 vs Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬
• Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 vs Thailand 🇹🇭
• South Korea 🇰🇷 vs Mongolia 🇲🇳

Women’s +78kg:
• Indonesia 🇮🇩 vs Thailand 🇹🇭
• Chinese Taipei 🇹🇼 vs Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬

Men’s +100kg:
• Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬 vs Chinese Taipei 🇹🇼
• Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 vs Indonesia 🇮🇩
• UAE 🇦🇪 vs Philippines 🇵🇭
• Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 vs Tajikistan 🇹🇯

15:00 — Medal session begins, with bronze bouts followed by 🥇 finals in this order:

• Men’s −90kg
• Women’s −78kg
• Men’s −100kg
• Women’s +78kg
• Men’s +100kg