The most fundamental genius of #bitcoin is that it helps to rewrite the incentive structures surrounding global exchange of resources and information. This is existential for humanity.
@davidsirota Because money != character. Character is the largest driver of action, happiness, and fulfillment in life and is built through adversity more than anything else.
Interesting... An admirable prompt, but I asked grok the same thing with a much simpler prompt and the answer was 12-14%. People should take all of this with a huge grain of salt.
The way a prompt primes the model plays a huge role and we can't always assume lengthier or more thorough prompts lead to "better" answers. An LLM being told how to approach a problem is not the same as even an AI developing it's own "opinions" through first hand experiential modeling.
Yes, quite a bit. It's a cool tech that will keep getting better. It still does a lot of silly stuff. You absolutely should NOT be zoning out while using it right now. But even once it gets there, my point is that if using FSD makes manual driving a "stressful chore" for you, then you probably never appreciated driving as much as you think you did.
@WalkerAmerica That's some intense stuff - so glad to hear Carla and baby are ok. Best wishes to you all throughout recovery and the rest of the pregnancy.
Recently bought a Tesla and trying FSD (HW3). I'm not a hater - it's cool tech and I'm sure it's getter better and better.
But today, it made a left turn in front of an oncoming car that it did NOT handle properly. It was raining out and I wasn't watching the screen to see if FSD actually saw the oncoming car, but it was pretty sketchy. Thought it was going to accelerate hard to thread the gap... nope.
Took it's time and the car had to get on their brakes hard to make it ok. Maybe it's because I'm only just getting acquainted with FSD, but it all happened pretty quickly so by the time it became obvious the car wasn't doing what it really should (accelerating hard), it was too late for a manual intervention to really change anything.
Honestly no real excuse for it. If the car can't see well enough through the weather or some other issue, tell the driver. If it can, it was a completely terrible decision.
Miners are never incentivized to hold long term. They are, fundamentally, business operations that generally seek to insulate as much as possible from the volatility of bitcoin as an asset and instead generate recurrent cash flows. AI is in a major hype cycle right now. Cycles will cycle.
We're now 3 years in to Bhutan's Bitcoin experiment
That means we now have robust data on how it has impacted the economy
For context: Bhutan's economy was in dire shape in 2022 due to loss of all tourism income (it's #2 export earner) during the COVID period.
It got so bad that Bhutan was 3 months away from defaulting on import payments.
IMF was poised to step in to structure a loan which would have led to heavy debt repayments, but also ceding of economic sovereignty to a lender whose loan conditions permit them to dictate how to (re)structure an economy.
Instead, Bhutan formed a large Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by using their surplus renewable hydropower to mine Bitcoin.
The IMF has warned on numerous occasions that nations embracing Bitcoin would destabilize their economy, be less effective at attracting foreign direct investment, and endanger their decarbonizing and environmental initiatives.
What does the data say (as reported by Wall St Journal, Al Jazeera and Forbes)
1. Bhutan was able to "use Bitcoin reserves to avert a crisis as foreign currency reserves dwindled to $689 million"
2. The bitcoin reserves have directly addressed pressing fiscal needs. "In June 2023, Bhutan allocated $72 million from its holdings to finance a 50% salary increase for civil servants"
3. Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay in an interview said that bitcoin also "supports free healthcare and environmental projects"
4. Tobgay also said their Bitcoin reserves helped in "stabilizing [the nationโs] $3.5 billion economy"
5. Independent analysts have now said that "this model could attract foreign investment, particularly for nations with untapped renewable resources"
Considering that what transpired in Bhutan has helped stabilize an economy that the IMF warned Bitcoin would destabilize, it begs the question: what data was the IMF's predictions based on?
For Bhutan, Bitcoin didn't just boost the economy, it allowed Bhutan to maintain economic independence and provided an example to other small nations of a path forward that did not require the IMF.
@RonSwanonson@Mining_losses Coinbase has repeatedly stated they do not engage in fractional reserve practices for bitcoin for either retail or institutional custody. It's possible they're lying (for retail), but do you have any credible evidence or proof of it?
Solid post with lots of good info. Your points, while all valid, should be considered with some extra context though:
1) The official mandates out of NIST/NSA are themselves precautionary and account for HNDL + long migration periods. MANY quantum experts are still putting realistic CRQC timelines at 15-30+ years. Saylor's comments about quantum not being a threat for the next 10+ years likely just reflects differences in interpretation of the data and overall risk tolerance, not a lack of knowledge.
While it should absolutely be noted that he has vested interest in guarding against hysteria, he also has an arguably much larger vested interest in Bitcoin succeeding.
2) Centralized legacy systems have drag too. There is lots of ancient hardware out there and banks/govts will have supply-chain issues, compliance overheard, etc. Mandates attempt to account for all of that, but rushed implementations do not always prove to produce the most effective solutions.
3) His claim that the crypto community will be the first to spot it does NOT rest on the premise that a CRQC would be publicly announced. It rests on the decentralized, hyper-connected and highly sensitive nature of the community. At worst, quantum theft would surface immediately after people start noticing funds missing and the awareness would propagate rapidly throughout the community.
4) It needs to be noted that all of the research into PQC, regardless of where it comes from (NIST, NSA, UK NCSC, private sector, etc), is not completely isolated from Bitcoin. It all informs and shapes approaches everywhere, including for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin's decentralized nature may lower it's propensity for immediate, sweeping action, that is a core feature (not a bug) that has enabled it's value growth over the last 17 years. Decentralized also does not mean incapable of adaptation.
5) As I know you are aware, there are basic actions that can be taken TODAY by anyone that wants to completely guard against quantum threat to their BTC (assuming they have exposed public keys to start with). Sweep and HODL. Store only small amounts in wallets that you want to spend small amounts from.
PQC approaches for Bitcoin should absolutely be talked about more and posts like yours add value to the discussion. It sounds like your organization is doing some good work, so props for that. Let's just be clear on all the context. Hysteria and panic is not needed.