@sarcastic_hedgi Fair - I’m not calling the bottom. “Lean in” for me means scaling a multi-year hold into weakness, not timing the low. I’d be more wrong if liquidity stays tight longer than I think, which is possible but not my base case. Where do you see the real flush?
Crypto sentiment is terrible, and I’m seeing a lot of capitulation, but I think it’s time to be patient and even lean in.
Bitcoin is down ~42% from its high. Ethereum ~60%. That definitely hurts (I’m holding through it too), but the last real bear market took $BTC down 77% and $ETH 82%. This drawdown is about half as deep at current levels, and it’s happening while GENIUS is law, CLARITY is progressing, and real infrastructure for real use cases keeps getting built.
So I don’t think crypto is broken. It’s getting starved of liquidity while every scarce dollar chases the highest momentum trade on the board: AI.
When oil settles, disinflation resumes, rate cuts back on the table, and liquidity returns, the people capitulating now will be buying back in much higher.
Zoom out.
FWIW I’m holding both and overweight $ETH here. Down ~60% is exactly where conviction gets tested, which is where it’s usually worth leaning in, not out.
My levels:
$BTC - I see $60k as the line in the sand (cycle low). Lose that on an ugly macro development and ~$50k is the next real shelf. But on a multi-year timeframe, reclaiming six figures puts the prior $126k ATH back in play, and then $150 - 200k.
$ETH - First downside retest is ~$1750 (cycle low), and ~$1400 if it gets really bad. But the upside is why I’m overweight: clearing the $4955 ATH opens a path toward $8 - 12k, and I think that’s being conservative.
That asymmetry (maybe 25-30% more downside vs. multiples up over a few years) is why I’m sizing for it and willing to sit through this chop. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before, but I’d rather be early and patient than capitulate near the bottom.
The institutional edge was never just being smarter. It was being smarter by a margin big enough to justify the mandates, benchmarks, committees, and compliance drag.
Cheap generalized AI intelligence is collapsing the intelligence moat. Open data access is collapsing the information moat.
What's left for funds? The constraints. What's left for retail? The freedom we always had, now with the firepower we never had.
Most of retail won't use it. But the slice that does is a different kind of competitor.
$HOOD - ROBINHOOD LETS AI TRADE STOCKS AND MAKE PURCHASES
Robinhood Markets is rolling out a feature that lets customers delegate investing and credit-card spending decisions to AI agents.
Users can connect tools like Anthropic’s Claude or Cursor to a dedicated account where the AI can place stock trades, manage portfolios, and execute spending tasks within set limits and alerts.
For credit cards, AI agents can search for deals, book travel, and secure tickets using a virtual Gold card, while users retain control through spending caps, approvals, and instant notifications.
For now, the system is limited to stock trading, with options and crypto support planned later.
I underestimated how much fast models (Gemini 3.5 Flash, Cursor Composer 2.5) would change the way I work.
Ripping through a task in one focused session is way better than waiting several minutes for Opus 4.7 Max to think. Market discussions, stock research, and even most coding flows much better now.
Reasoning models are still worth it for the hard problems, but picking the right model for the job matters more than I gave it credit for 🤔