Geoffrey Hinton says superintelligence is likely within 20 years, and AI is advancing faster than he expected.
- Just two decades ago, only a few hundred researchers worked on neural networks. Today, it's closer to a million.
- AI is already producing original mathematical discoveries that impress professional mathematicians, not just retrieving knowledge from existing literature.
- Hinton believes mathematics is a perfect domain for AI self-improvement because models can generate new conjectures, test proofs, and learn continuously, much like AlphaGo learned by playing against itself.
- He says today's chatbots are already close to AGI, answering most questions at the level of a "not very good expert" and outperforming humans in many areas outside their expertise.
- While experts disagree on when superintelligence will arrive, Hinton says there is little disagreement that it eventually will. His estimate is within the next 20 years.
We may still be at the very beginning of the AI revolution. Humanity has never scaled intelligence this quickly.
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman reveals the assumption about superintelligence he thinks the other AI labs have backwards
"Some of the other labs are making an assumption that a superintelligence that is smarter than all of us put together is both inevitable and even desirable. And that such a system would probably be very hard to control"
"We have to reset that and make the assumption that we should only bring a system like that into the world that we are sure we can control, that operates in a subordinate way to us, that humans remain at the top of the food chain"
"These tools, like any other past technology, are designed to enhance human wellbeing and serve humanity. Not exceed humanity"
"Some of the things that you hear from Elon often, or even others in the field - they're fixating on a world in 2050 or 2075 when they're going off exploring other universes and conquering resources from other planets. A system like that, it is unclear to me how it would have any time for preserving us as a species"
"We have to make a decision as a species to prioritize creating superintelligences that are aligned, that care about humans and want to protect humans. If we just accelerate and cut all those corners, we're taking a massive risk with the future of our species"
He calls it humanist superintelligence: build it only if it is provably controllable, subordinate, and pointed at human wellbeing.
The uncomfortable part: "provably controllable" is a standard nobody in the industry can verify yet.
This fattu slave mindset is why India will never be good
Bhai
BJP nai bhi hoti to bhi itna development to ho hi jaata infact isse better hota
Yamuna Expressway Isne nai banwaya tha
Usspar ek bhi pothole ki news kabhi aayi ??
And US me baith aapko Ground Reality ka pata hi kitna hai Sir ?
In India it will be different. After AGI is achieved and robots automate all human work, the government will announce Universal High Income for SC/ST, Universal Basic Income for OBCs, Universal Monthly Income for Laadli Behnas, Universal Empowerment Income for minorities, and Universal Character Development Through Unpaid Internship for the general category Hindu male.
Sometimes I think about the millions of Indians who are technically college educated, grew up in metro cities, work desk jobs, speak half decent English, and still make Rs. 20,000 to Rs. 30,000 a month in dead end roles.
Out of this they manage rent, electricity, commute, gas cylinder, EMIs, family obligations, and the occasional outing that keeps them sane.
I wonder what goes through their head when they see people online saying "Rs. 2.5 lakh is the new Rs. 1 lakh" or "Rs. 1 lakh is basically the new Rs. 30K."
Urban India has created a strange class of people who are too educated to be called poor, too broke to be called middle class, and too invisible for anyone to build politics around.
Should we be spending literally trillions on a speculative bet when we can’t even solidly document clear positive impact?
Great analysis of what we don’t yet know below, by @bencasselman drawing on a new report by @ngoldschlag.
Jaindustan mai sadkon par plastic ki gandgi failane wale bhandare aur har chhay mahine mai hone wale chunav kabhi nahi khatam honge.
Aur har election ke baad, janta ka haal tevhar ke baad ki bhagwano ki murtiyan jaisi hoti rahengi.
NEW: Scientists say they have, for the first time, constructed a synthetic cell from non-living chemical components that can feed, grow, and replicate—just like a natural cell.
A country with a per capita GDP of $2813 has to focus entirely on capital accumulation and industrial capacity. We cannot afford to blindly copy welfare state policies of developed nations because the tax base simply does not exist. Wealth distribution only works when there is enough wealth to distribute.
"Soviet system was built on lies and deceit"
I'm very small compared to MrVembu but to say that a society which put the first human in the space,pursued&led Nukes tech development,pulled nearly every one of its citizens from the horrors of WW2 and etc etc surely can't be all lies
The Soviet Union collapsed abruptly in 1990. It was a super power that looked strong until then. The collapse was so abrupt, it was not anticipated even by the United States, the major ideological and super power adversary of the Soviets.
The Soviet system was built on deceit and lies. It had gone on for so long, their own senior leaders deluded themselves. The "revolutionary" leaders lived in extreme luxury and were cut off from the masses they were supposed to represent. They had successfully jailed all dissidents so there was no one left to tell them the truth.
This kind of thing can happen to any large organization, business or political. The worst lie is the lie we tell ourselves, when we start to believe in that lie.
Collapse is the collapse of the lie and since we believed in it ourselves, we are at a total loss of comprehension.
I am sure there is absolutely no resemblance to the ideological collapse we witnessed in contemporary Tamil Nadu. Purely my imagination, I assure you.
I have read all of Bharat's books. He is one of the best persons alive who has the understanding of global warfare and the importance of hard power for peace.
His book Why "India is not a great power yet" is a must read.
EPFO website is down since last 4-5 days and they have put a notice that it will be back by 30th June and as expected, it is still not up. Atleast change the deadline to 30 June 2047.
We can't maintain a simple website man and we claim to live in digital India.