Is the crypto market being manipulated?
After the Crpto market structure bill passed the Senate banking committee on May 14, Bitcoin started dumping. BTC crashed -25% in the next 20 days and dropped -$20,600 from $82k to $61.3k wiping out $406 billion in market cap.
During that timeframe, $10.98 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated.
Many are speculating this is liquidity rotation, institutional money moving out of crypto and into equities as stocks hit all-time highs. Or prices are being intentionally suppressed before the Clarity Act fully passes so institutions can accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices before the regulatory green light arrives.
Since May 15, Bitcoin ETFs sold $4.356 billion worth of BTC, not a single day of inflows since the Clarity Act advanced. The same bill that is supposed to be bullish for institutional crypto adoption triggered the longest ETF outflow streak on record.
Then on June 1, Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin worth $2.5 million ( 0.0037% of his holdings ) for the first time since 2022 to fund dividend payments. He is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on Earth. That single sale raised fears that more selling is coming and that fear alone accelerated the drop.
Fundamentally Bitcoin got rejected from a resistance of $83,000 creating a lower high. Following the typical 4-year cycle, it is now printing consistent lower highs and lower lows, pointing toward new cycle lows in coming months.
All while the US, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea stock markets hit all-time highs in the same 20 days.
BAD TIMES: Bitcoin ETFs in a big step back mode.. $4.4b out over past month which sent the YTD number negative again (it had worked hard to get positive too). That said, some silver lining: $IBIT & a few others STILL positive YTD (unreal) and total net lifetime is still +$55b (less than 10b from high water mark, not bad at all for this type of drawdown and negative sentiment, gold went down like this a few yrs after GLD debuted and 40% of the assets left, much stronger holders here so far). But yeah, to quote Henry Hill, "this is the bad times"
Capital markets are funding the AI buildout at historic scale: ~$400B over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring $BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.
It's official.
MicroStrategy, $MSTR, is now facing its biggest unrealized loss in history, at -$10.8 billion.
In other words, after 6 years of buying Bitcoin, the company is now down -17% on its position.
By comparison, the S&P 500 is up +116% over this same timeframe.
Since MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin at $77,135 per coin, their positions has lost -$11.8 billion in value.
This puts MicroStrategy's stock, $MSTR, down -77% since its record high.
Bear market is an understatement.
I just dumped my entire $HYPE and $NEAR position, I will explain why in my essay "Reality Test" dropping next Tuesday.
TLDR:
- Higher energy prices due to Iran war and inventory restocking
- 3 Mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3
- Prediction that Trump goes anti-AI to win mid-terms for Republicans
- I think highs in mrkts will happen btw now and September
- Time to take profit, and two-step in beefa without worrying about my positions
BREAKING: Bitcoin’s selloff accelerates, dropping below $63,000 for the first time since February 24th.
Over $1.1 billion worth of levered crypto positions have been liquidated over the past 24 hours.
I largely think of "crypto" as a failed asset class at this point.
I've written about the causes multiple times. Mainly, most crypto assets are worthless, or have dreadful value accrual, and most founders have abused the lack of guardrails and dumped on people indiscriminately, or are outright scammers.
On top of that we had the Memecoins SuperBullshitCycle, a trend that brought the worst out of people, and sucked everyone's souls & pockets dry. And then came the never-ending wave of DeFi hacks, which has dramatically increased since last April.
This can seem contradictory, as adoption of "crypto" is surging:
> Stablecoin adoption continues growing fast
> Politicians in the US are openly pro crypto
> Tradfi is looking at tokenizing everything
> Usage of equities & commodities perps is exploding in offshore and DeFi exchanges
> The US is in the early stages of adopting perps
> Prediction markets are becoming part of everyone's daily lives
These are more "blockchain" than "crypto", although there are some exceptions with a token in those fields, most of which have been performing very well in recent months. A few among those exceptions even distribute most revenue to holders via buybacks (Hyperliquid in particular), which is what every investor actually wants to see to be invested in a good business rather than a fleeting narrative.
We also have the privacy category. The one old school crypto category that is not liquid diarrhea. The world needs private non-custodial stores of value.
Crime in particular needs privacy, as proven by the DoJ confiscation of $15 billion in Bitcoin from Cambodia's pig butchering farms, legal filing for which was submitted on October 8, 2025 (coincidentally right before 10/10). Of course, everyone needs privacy, not just criminals, but crime flows are real, and large.
The asset attracting the most flows in this niche is Zcash. Zcash's recent performance has been fascinating, as it has been trending higher with bitcoin trending lower, a sign of real reallocation among bitcoiners.
Another crypto category that is not dead is the "AI" category, full of high flying, fundamentally lacking, narrative driven tokens. The standout exception is Venice, a private AI platform with growing users and revenue, whose tokens are directly backed by the business rather than a narrative.
So one could say old "crypto" is a failed asset class, but from the ashes come new beginnings, and the new face of crypto is one heavily dominated by the needs of Tradfi, prediction markets, AI, and privacy.
Crypto sucks. Long live crypto.
Vibe right now —
Crypto twitter: “after 15 years, this might be the year it’s over for [new recent reason]”
Financial advisor I’m with at happy hour in Florida: “saw price is down, it’s time to buy right? It’s amazing to finally have access.”
Somehow the roles have flipped upside down in 2026.