Ashwin Kumar

Professor of Social Policy @MMUPERU. Economist: incomes, poverty, the labour market & microsimulation modelling

[Ashwin Kumar @KumarAshwin]

@Dr_KatyJones and I have a new book out today: Idleness. We have far too many people stuck in low-paid work with little chance of progression. Why is this and what can we do about it? https://t.co/ksp7p0SUyn 📚 #idleness /2

[Henry Parkes @Henry_J_Parkes]

1/ Partnering with @changing_r /w support from @CPAGUK, our new report considers priorities for change for the upcoming child poverty strategy, informed by parents with experience on low incomes. https://t.co/u0BJ29Azsg

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

Estimated bill on that will be around £100 million, which would build around 15 new primary schools.

[LBC @LBC]

‘Its easier to dismiss them as spineless snowflakes than actually take seriously the fact that people are really suffering’.

@BenKentish speaks to Professor @KumarAshwin about the pandemic’s impact on young people, as the number of benefit claims due to sickness rises.

[Carsten Jung @carsjung]

Reporting about gilt market vibes suggests that there has been an inflation/interest rate surprise in yesterday's budget. Likely driven by the OBR's slightly surprising projections.
But there really shouldn't have been much news on this, as @ChrisGiles_ sensibly explains.

[Ashwin Kumar @KumarAshwin]

Important point from @carsjung: estimates of growth effects of public investment from @OBR_UK don't include second-order effects such as increased business confidence or labour supply that general equilibrium modelling might show and so are likely to be on the low side

[Carsten Jung @carsjung]

The @OBR_UK today projected only modest GDP growth effects of higher public investment. They're still projecting much lower GDP returns than standard approaches from the literature (see Ramey 2020), because they're not modelling general equilbirum effects. Could be 2x higher.

[Ashwin Kumar @KumarAshwin]

It's impossible for tax-raising measures to be completely pain-free, but there are a collection of measures that focus on the better off and the main revenue-raising measure - employers NI contributions - raises money in proportion to earnings so more comes from the highest-paid

[Ashwin Kumar @KumarAshwin]

The budget is a welcome reversal of approach - public investment does matter and it's worth tax rises to get public services out of crisis mode

[Carsten Jung @carsjung]

Really great that @RachelReevesMP has resolved to target net financial liabilities in her fiscal rules, as recommeded by us. It was our 2nd best option, after net worth.
This is an amazing innovation, making our fiscal framework more honest, but also more growth friendly.

[Ashwin Kumar @KumarAshwin]

Interested in incomes, poverty, social security and tax? @MMUPERU at @ManMetUni is recruiting a Research Associate to maintain and develop a tax-benefit microsimulation model used by several major think-tanks: https://t.co/ewGJogJVv5

[Max Roser @MaxCRoser]

The World Bank's data portal for poverty, inequality, and growth data has gotten much better!

Their replacement for the older PovcalNet is called PIP — the 'Poverty and Inequality Platform'.

If you are interested in poverty it is worth having a good look around. They just updated their data.

→ https://t.co/IBuuVPwyOE

[The Centre for Progressive Change @Prog_Change]

Thank you to @LabourGrowth Group for hosting a discussion on #SafeSickPay today.

Great contributions from @YuanfenYang, @KumarAshwin @IPPR, Carl Quillam @CIPD and @amandapwd on the economic benefits of increasing the rate of Statutory Sick Pay

[Carsten Jung @carsjung]

NEW: the UK has had the lowest investment in the G7 in 24 out of the last 30 years. Public investment - eg core infrastructure - can boost productivity across the economy, but it's set to fall steeply over the next five years. To boost economic growth it needs to rise, not fall.

[Liam Thorp @LiamThorpECHO]

Charlotte Hennessy’s dad Jimmy was killed at Hillsborough when she was just six-years-old. She says today’s announcement about a Hillsborough Law is the best way to honour him and all of the 97 Liverpool fans who died in the disaster.

https://t.co/MaDFizcsXk

[Henry Parkes @Henry_J_Parkes]

1/7 Following over a decade of languishing living standards and rising food bank use, government plans for a new child poverty strategy are hugely welcome.

But what policies could be in scope and how should they prioritise?

A new blog from me:
https://t.co/kTmD5cs2gY

[IPPR @IPPR]

Yes, the NHS has been beaten by austerity, the pandemic and misguided reform. But the fundamental model is not the problem. A move to an insurance based system will not solve any of our problems. The answer is in prevention.

📺 @KumarAshwin speaking to @Jacob_Rees_Mogg ⤵️

[Ashwin Kumar @KumarAshwin]

On @GBNEWS tonight with @Jacob_Rees_Mogg discussing how inadequate spending - particularly 2011-18, lack of capital investment and insufficient focus on primary care & prevention have led to current problems in the NHS

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'Because the NHS was suffering in terms of shortages of day to day running costs, we weren't spending money on the technology we need in hospitals'

Professor Ashwin Kumar says a funding squeeze in the early years of the Conservative government left the NHS struggling later.

[Diana Alastair💚🤍💜 ⚢ ❌❌✡️ @sappholives83]

🧵 (long)

Amber Nicole Thurman is dead.

Amber was the mother of a 6 yr old boy who took legally obtained abortion pills and developed a rare complication when her uterus did not expel all the fetal tissue from her body. She tried to get through it, but began to bleed 1/

[Michael O'Connor @StrongerInNos]

@jdportes @nicolawoolcock Terrible article. That ‘would have been 16.2%’ needs to be followed by an *if* without which it’s meaningless.

[Institute for Employment Studies @EmploymtStudies]

A result of 2 years of consultation & evidence-gathering on employment support, the report sets out proposals for once-in-a-generation reform to boost growth & raise living standards. It makes detailed proposals to raise participation in the labour force & boost productivity. 2/3

[Institute for Employment Studies @EmploymtStudies]

IES & @finan_fairness have launched the final report for the Commission on the Future of Employment Support at a Westminster event this morning. Minister for Employment @Alison_McGovern, delivered the keynote speech. Read the report: https://t.co/ELmL7Pp8mx 1/3