Harisundar Kumar

Researcher-IR . SOAS University of London.

[Nicole Grajewski @NicoleGrajewski]

If one accepts the premise that a war with Russia in Europe or China over Taiwan is plausible in the near-term, then this war is far more costly to the U.S. than many of its proponents acknowledge. The munitions crisis is real, and replenishing key inventories will take years.

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Will #Iran and #Ukraine Enter a Direct Conflict?

🔹Ukraine’s Security Service, the SBU, said on July 25 that Ukrainian forces had struck an Iranian vessel transporting military cargo between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea.

🔹Later, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv’s forces had “achieved very good results from long-range strikes in the waters of the Caspian Sea.”

🔹Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the target was a commercial vessel and that the attack had killed one sailor and injured another. It warned Kyiv that it would bear responsibility for the consequences of the operation.

🔹The episode has prompted a range of interpretations among Iranian experts and analysts.

🔹Some believe that Ukraine’s action was part of an effort by Zelensky to demonstrate both his capabilities and his value as a partner to the United States. This is particularly relevant at a time when Trump is frustrated with Washington’s NATO allies for declining to support military operations against Iran or participate in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

🔹The prevailing view, however, is that the operation could not have taken place without at least a green light – if not direct guidance – from the U.S. and Ukraine’s other Western partners.

🔹On this basis, one group argues that the attack effectively reflects a NATO decision to participate more extensively in military operations against Iran. Rather than acting directly, however, NATO members have assigned the task to Ukraine, which has its own incentive to act against Iran because of Tehran’s military partnership with Russia.

🔹This argument has gained particular attention in light of recent statements by the NATO secretary-general regarding member states’ logistical support for U.S. military operations, the U.K. government’s agreement to allow the U.S. military to use British bases for operations against Iran, and Bulgaria’s plans to host U.S. military aircraft.

🔹Another group focuses less on NATO and more on the United States and Israel, as well as the military constraints facing both countries as they seek to expand their operations against Iran.

🔹According to this interpretation, concerns about Iran’s response to attacks on its infrastructure – and the possibility that Tehran could retaliate by targeting regional economic infrastructure – have prompted Israel and the U.S. to ask Ukraine to increase military pressure on Iran from the north on their behalf.

🔹Under this scenario, Ukraine’s next step could involve using drones or missiles to strike Iranian infrastructure directly, similar to the attacks it has carried out inside Russia in recent weeks.

🔹A third group of analysts points to the timing of the attack, which coincided with a renewed escalation in the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

🔹According to this argument, Iran’s indirect activation of the Bab el-Mandeb front to increase pressure on the United States has been met with an indirect American response. In other words, the Caspian front, together with the Indian Ocean – where the United States has imposed a maritime blockade on Iran – is now intended to complete a ring of economic and military pressure around the country.

🔹The validity of these interpretations will depend on whether Ukraine carries out similar operations in the future or further expands the scope of its actions. So far, remarks attributed to Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel suggest that Kyiv has decided to continue along this path.

🔹Another concern is that Ukrainian intelligence services may also become active in parallel, supporting ethnic insurgent groups against Tehran through military training, logistical assistance, and, in particular, the provision of drones. Ukraine previously pursued a similar approach in Syria against the Assad regime.

🔹For this reason, there is a degree of consensus in Tehran that Iran’s response will determine the trajectory of the confrontation and that a decisive response is required. There is considerably less agreement, however, over the precise nature of that response.

🔹Some believe that the least costly option would be to expand military cooperation with Russia. Yet such a decision is unlikely to alter the balance significantly, given Russia’s own difficulties in confronting Ukraine and Iran’s military constraints amid the ongoing war.

🔹Others argue that Iran should consider carrying out similar direct attacks against Ukraine-linked vessels in other maritime arenas, or even launching direct missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure if such operations continue.

🔹Such measures, however, could give NATO members a stronger incentive to participate in military action against Iran.

🔹At the political level, Iran could respond by recognizing Crimea and the Donbas as parts of Russian territory – areas whose occupation by Russia Tehran has so far declined to endorse.

🔹In any case, what is clear is that Iran’s war is becoming increasingly intertwined with two other conflicts: the Saudi-Houthi confrontation and the Russia-Ukraine war.

🔹With each passing day, the war is evolving into an increasingly complex, multidimensional, and international conflict.

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

Read this with @HamidRezaAz ‘s latest set of observations.

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor. A blatant UN Charter violation done at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war.

In calls with EU High Rep Kallas and FM Lavrov, made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.

[sushant sareen @sushantsareen]

Neither the govt nor the oppn and certainly not the cockroaches have the foggiest idea on how to fix the education system. If their solution is passing a law and forcing a resignation of a feckless minister then we are all so screwed.

[Rupak @RupakChatto]

I strongly disagree. India needed far more than privatization in 1991. Liberalization was necessary, but it was not sufficient. The deeper challenge was the absence of an effective, capable state that could guide structural transformation. Rather than simply withdrawing from the economy, India needed to build state capacity and adopt a more disciplined, performance-oriented approach to industrialization.

The experience of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and later China shows that successful industrialization was not achieved through laissez-faire economics alone. These countries relied on capable states that could coordinate investment, build infrastructure, develop human capital, support strategic industries, and enforce accountability on firms. The issue in India was never merely excessive state intervention; it was the weakness of state institutions—too much regulation in some areas, but insufficient capacity to deliver outcomes in others.

More than three decades after the 1991 reforms, this challenge remains unresolved. India has created a more market-oriented economy, but state capacity continues to lag severely. Weak implementation, limited bureaucratic capability, inadequate urban governance, slow judicial processes, and uneven regulatory institutions continue to constrain economic transformation. India’s next phase of development will depend not only on freeing markets but on building a stronger developmental state capable of delivering infrastructure, education, industrial policy, and effective governance at scale.

The lesson from East Asia is not that India needed less state; it needed a better state—one that was competent, strategic, and capable of partnering with the private sector to drive industrialization.
@EmergingRoy

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

Interesting.. a joint press conference

[Vishnu Som @VishnuNDTV]

CJP calls off protest with immediate effect. Joint press conference with government leaders JP Nadda and Jitendra Singh.

[Nitin Pai @acorn]

A good time to remind ourselves of India’s most important policy imperatives:

1. Create 20 million jobs per year

2. Ensure that schools & universities deliver high-quality education to every young person.

3. Rethink entrance exams as the way to select students/aspirants.

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

@mxtaverse Forgot to add deep state ref here.

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

@TheNavroopSingh You still think this protest was about FCRA and NGOs and deep state??

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

“But accountability does not end with a resignation. The deeper failures that brought us here must now be addressed through transparent reforms, institutional responsibility and a commitment to ensuring that no young Indian’s future is jeopardised again.”

[Shashi Tharoor @ShashiTharoor]

The resignation of the Education Minister is an acknowledgment that accountability in a democracy cannot be indefinitely evaded. It comes after weeks of determined, peaceful voices raised by students, parents and citizens across the country who refused to be ignored.

It also comes after far too many young Indians faced unnecessary police brutality and force for exercising their democratic right to peaceful protest. That should concern every citizen, regardless of political affiliation.

But accountability does not end with a resignation. The deeper failures that brought us here must now be addressed through transparent reforms, institutional responsibility and a commitment to ensuring that no young Indian’s future is jeopardised again.

The students who marched, spoke out and peacefully persisted deserve to know that this is the beginning of reform, not the end of the story.

[Parth MN @parthpunter]

Each and everyone who turned up to Jantar Mantar.

Each and everyone who showed up at protests in other parts of India.

Each and every independent journalist who covered the movement and amplified student voices.

Congratulations..

#DharmendraPradhanResigns

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

#CJP #Jantarmantar

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

This protest and its result should be a strong reminder to the youth of India on how detached our mainstream political parties are from key policy issues such as education and unemployment. It is @CJP_for_India led victory. Make no mistake, others jumped in later.

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

@AshutoshRanka

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

Hope this brings accountability across ministries.

[ANI @ANI]

Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigns.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

CNN reports the Abraham Accords clause was not there in the original US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement. trump got angry with his own Energy Dept after the deal was signed, particularly when conservative media turned against the deal, and added a new condition 24 hours later--Saudi Arabia must establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel. The Saudis must have been perplexed. And the timing is v interesting. Arab monarchies are already questioning US commitment to their security after the war on Iran broke out. trump's flip-flop would only further deepen their concerns. And the US wants Iran to reach a diplomatic settlement over Hormuz and its nuclear programme. The Iranians already think trump is untrustworthy. Now they see trump undermining an agreement with the Saudis, just 24 hours after signing it, in the name of Israel.

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

Gen Z are way ahead in cracking present day political discourse. Kudos 👌

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

Seriously? This is your policy response?!

[TIMES NOW @TimesNow]

Inside Track on Key Cabinet Meet:

- PM asks Ministers to boost Instagram presence.

- PM to Ministers: Get active on Instagram, don’t limit yourself to X

- Prime Minister tells Ministers: Share reels on government schemes, reach out to youth through Instagram

[Harisundar Kumar @kumarhari_s]

Can’t protest, can’t post online. University will punish you, the state will punish you.

[Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) @JNU_official_50]

Advisory
All stakeholders of JNU’s epistemic community are advised to act responsibly and prioritize their personal safety. In accordance with the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India’s directions on public demonstrations, you are requested to refrain from participating in or visiting gatherings at or around Jantar Mantar, New Delhi.

Please exercise responsibility on social media. Violations may invite legal consequences under applicable laws as well as disciplinary action under the University’s code of conduct.

You are also encouraged to uphold the values of academic responsibility and responsible citizenship.

[Zorawar Daulet Singh @Z_DauletSingh]

American AI is trying to manipulate and replace human intelligence.

Chinese AI is trying to make humans learn better.

One is an immoral approach of a corrupt oligarchy, the other is a practical application of a new technology…like the invention of the wheel, the printing press or locomotive engines.