Trump isn't going to attack Iran.
At least not now.
He will wait till Friday evening when US markets are closed so that the only thing people can sell is crypto 🤷♂️
Is #Bitcoin math?
What if BTC is following a predictable timeline of tops, bottoms, and blow-off peaks?
Here’s a model projecting the next potential ATH and why $190,000 by 2029 is aligned with previous cycles.
Bookmark this. Let’s dive in: 🧵👇
Last cycle:
Bitcoin topped ~Oct21 > Nov22 (~378days)
Last bottom to top:
~Nov22 to Oct25 > (~1064days)
This cycle:
Bitcoin topped ~Oct25 > Oct/Nov26 (378days?)
Next bottom to top:
~Oct26 to Sept/Oct29 > (~1064days?)
If we do live in a simulation, by this model, the bottom of this bearmarket will be somewhere in Oct/Nov this year.
Drawdowns last 3 cycles:
2013-2015: -86.9%
2017-2018: -84.2%
2021-2022: 77.5
If we apply a similar softening trend (say, another ~6% drop), the 2025–2026 drawdown would likely land around:
77.5% - 6% = 71.5% & that would put $BTC around $36k-40k ATL in 2026.
We will be exiting the accumulation zone somewhere in Oct27, +350 days after the bottom, like we did from Nov22 to Oct23.
Based on this model, the next top for Bitcoin will be somewhere between $180,000 - $190,000 in Sept/Oct2029.
The conclusion and investment thesis part, for investors who understand that Bitcoin is a longterm allocation:
Potential CAGR for the next 3 years:
ATL 2026 = ~$40,000
ATH 2029 = ~$190,000
Then the potential CAGR will be ~67.8% year from 2026 till 2029, beating by far #SP500 and most of the other TradFi assets.
As all models, they work until they don't, so take this with a grain of salt, more like a potential guideline based of what happened till now.
NotaBene: the indicator you see on the chart is Ichimoku, the only indicator I've been using for the past 10 years constantly and the red+green Clouds are just potential projections of its structures.
If this helped frame your long-term thesis, hit that like & ReTweet 🫡