@DrEliDavid The deal he gets is irrelevant. He will window dress it as flawless victory and build some memorial of the Operation Epic Fury in the ballroom
@LukeGromen At this point worst case scenario is some crunch in jet fuel shortage. No summer holidays in Europe, more zoom calls some V shaped drop in GDP growth for Q3 with recovery in Q4. Irrelevant for DRAM prices which is what drives stocks nowadays
@LukeGromen markets don’t care about all of this. Trump will get some floppy deal and sell it as victory. Capacity to tolerate the shock was much higher than people expected. Those that got wrecked are the likes of Bangladesh or Philippines and none cares.
@SmedleyButlerUS@DrSteveGoeddeke I think thinking about yield increases in bonds as “dips” is a bit dangerous, ie you cannot apply the same technical principles of stocks. Ultimately what provided a ceiling to yields is Uber easy monetary policy you simply do not have anymore.
@BrettErickson28 Trump and Bessemt completely know all of this, but they just have to lie to frame a victory that doesn’t exist. Ultimately the US will get out of this with some sloppy deal that will be depicted as a secular achievement.
@BuffaloBillCo Plus yes of course there’s the motivational drive, addiction to power, passion ecc but there are still strong economic reasons that often people ignore I think
@BuffaloBillCo I think in practice key factors are large amounts of vested compensation that keep people with a lot of skin in the game and development of very expensive tastes. Know some large real money managers with insane wine or art collections.
@CRUDEOIL231 Seems more a logistical operation to get ships that are inside the strait out rather than restart flows. Doesn’t really change too much I think
@DrJStrategy The only reason why Germany cannot defend itself is because in the ‘40s people agreed that it’s better not to deal with fully armed Germany ever again