HZ @kurtdanm - Twitter Profile

Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!

aleabitoreddit's tweet photo. Year to Date post $NVDA earnings:

477.27%.

Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months:

From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently.

or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung.

Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe.

Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK.

I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching.

But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year.

Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains.

I typically shift from:

> Research Posts (Initial thesis post)
> Map that into actual ideas + trades
> Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing)
> celebrate when things go up.

cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum.

Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading).

And I think people might have found this style refreshing.

I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends:

1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains

- Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO
- Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura
- Power Grid like $XLU
- Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR

2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea.

Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan.

ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off.

- Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months

- For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying

- For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February

While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America.

So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure.

The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation.

As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling!

I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right.

I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day.

But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!

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1K

431K

HZ @kurtdanm

4 months ago

@qi9098 @Eason2766565277 你知道每天买新号的话额度会比20x多多少吗，相当于每天都重置，再加上官方重置和不掉号，额度远远大于20x

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kurtdanm retweeted

lifcc

@mylifcc

4 months ago

Codex 如果一直出现 `Reconnecting... 1/5`，可以把 Responses WebSocket 关掉。在 `~/.codex/config.toml` 加： model_provider = "chatgpt_http" [model_providers.chatgpt_http] name = "ChatGPT HTTP" base_url = "https://t.co/Gd32uioKEv" wire_api = "responses" requires_openai_auth = true supports_websockets = false 加完之后你的codex app 会显示