Lithium

[Thich Quang Duc @hassytee]

I think about this tweet a lot.

[RomeoStevens @RomeoStevens76]

The beginning of the end of your troubles is when you realize you are two dozen behavioral loops in a trenchcoat.

[Incentivising @incentivising]

Never act on panic. In moments of doubt, your irrationality seems rational. It will seem like the only valid solution, even when it is not. Do not let yourself fall victim to this. Go through everything exactly once; consult an outsider or an expert if you need to. Once you have done that, there is nothing left to do. You have your results. Your frantic attempts at changing anything aren't founded in reality.

[🗽 @verritass]

Your mind is mordibly obese (too much scrolling). Full of garbage you get served up on your for you page. You can't think for yourself, Stuck in life cause you're weighed down by 10,000 things that don't matter to your current circumstances.

Short form feeds are mental corn syrup. Created to taste important (brain thinks necessary for survival) but completely EMPTY of any nutrient value (made to get you addicted). Every video is just another plate of slop fed to you while you think you're "relaxing". Just like an obese chud that eats 30 donuts to get "full"

Your brain evolved in info scarcity for 200,000 years. Every new thing you encountered could save your life or kill you. Your brain is HARDWIRED for seeking what is "new" even if it is useless.

Now every night you lay in bed with a black mirror that feeds you an infinite amount of new info from every domain of the human experience. Ritualistically scrolling until you can't even open your eyes. Unconscious worship.

The black mirror has been engineered to exploit that SAME evolutionary wiring. You're consuming 500x the information your entire ancestral LINEAGE has seen over hundreds of generations and have been psyopped to think it's fine + normal "it's just my phone".

The thing which was designed by a team of geniuses (who understand your wiring better than you). Put the most POWERFUL attention extraction device in human history in your pocket.

And just like an obese person who feels like they're going to have a heart attack walking up stairs, you feel like your mind is going to explode if you sit still for 3 minutes (It won't - it's just the withdrawal stage).

You've probably forgotten what it's like to be bored and let it pass. What happened when you were a kid and you were bored? Imagination on 9000RPM, engine ROARING, Curiously in awe about worms and ants, creativity BEAMING, you could entertain yourself with a stick and a rock for hours.

Your ability to create is being stolen from you in real time and it's one of the only things that separate a human from an animal.

If you have 6 hour screen time everyday, Imagine what would happen if you put just HALF of that time into something you genuinely found meaningful. You'd make quantum leaps in that area of your life.

Choose your life, don't let an algorithm choose for you

Boredommaxxing.

[@redaction @redaction]

Watching these AI psychosis people has taught me: you can trick retards to believe anything if you spam graphs

I’m convinced that useless but absurdly complex graphs are a skeleton key for persuasion because it creates artificial authority

[Superior @andreysuperior]

Two horses. One has a 20% chance of winning, the other 80%. A bookie knows the real odds. The crowd doesn't. $10,000 lands on one horse, $50,000 on the other.

Inside an MIT classroom, a professor asks one question: how does the bookie guarantee he never loses?

He ignores what he knows. Sets the odds not by probability but by how the money fell. Five to one, matching the market.

First horse wins, he pays $60,000 and collected $60,000. Second horse wins, same thing. Zero exposure. Fee on top. Riskless profit.

That's not gambling. That's pricing.

The same math prices every option contract on Wall Street. Black-Scholes, replicating portfolios, hedging. It starts with one insight: you don't need to predict the future. You structure the trade so the future doesn't matter.

The professor builds it step by step. Take any derivative. Find a combination of stock and cash that replicates the pay-off exactly. Hold both sides. Risk cancels. You keep the spread.

He pulls up Bloomberg with IBM call options and shows it in real numbers. Prices a digital option using nothing but two calls at different strikes. No model needed. Just replication.

Traders do this thousands of times a day. Enter a contract, hedge it on the exchange, walk away with a fee. No opinion on direction. Just structure.

The entire derivatives market works this way. Not prediction. Replication.

The people who understood that distinction first built the biggest fortunes in finance.

[Alec Torelli | Poker & Decision Making @AlecTorelli]

Poker pro here. I make bets for a living.

This is the correct logic applied incorrectly.

The reason insurance exists is because people can’t afford the variance.

That’s the only reason you buy insurance, which is a losing proposition for the consumer.

The only reason you don’t take a positive expectation bet, like the one he proposed is if you can’t afford the loss.

Most can afford $100 swing. Not taking the bet isn’t mere loss aversion, it’s a failure to understand when to play the game in the first place.

[AP @friendscallmeap]

Just some thoughts from a crypto dummie:

There is a pretty basic, but deep idea about factor risk: you can get closer to profiting from the things that you want, by hedging out the things you don't want.

But...

1/n

[thatkid.kante @ifjfurw]

@TMfutbal

[𝕀𝕟𝕤𝕚𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕠 Very poor & Very stupid @insiliconot]

@therobotjames @MacroTactical @davidbelle_ @trader1sz

[Route 2 FI @Route2FI]

A good read on edge in crypto.

When you have a hot hand (asymmetric opportunity), go more or less all in. Like, why would you allocate money into your 5th best idea?

Back in 2021, and 2023-2024, I more or less sacrificed my health in order to make it. I wasn't working out, barely left the house, and didn't pay attention to my gf. I was selfish, but I saw this as an opportunity that had a tight window, like if these easy conditions would never come back.

[Ardiønel @the10arda]

Offf of Edite bak piramit mi diktin ne yaptın amk

[Takopi🐙 @OctopusTakopi]

testing new model on binance sol perp, didnt write a single line of code, all writen by AI (of course i fed it tons of my old code to it). the per-level toxicity avoid learned (ai learned) from wintermute hl wallet works insanely well

agi is here

[sysls @systematicls]

Some nuance on the stoploss argument:

1) Stoplosses are useful when you want to immediately cut risks to 0 after an event that reduces your sharpe estimate of the team/trader/strategy/signal to ~0.

For example, when your team/trader/strategy/signal has had a huge drawdown outside of its statistical bounds.

It is truly useful then, because the correct position you want to take is 0, since your estimate of its going-forward sharpe is 0. This happens when something "shocking" outside of normal statistical bounds happen.

2) Stoplosses are not useful when your sharpe estimate is not reduced to ~0.

E.g. PnL losses due to volatility / alpha decay / etc.

In those kind of situations, your estimate of going-forward sharpe may decrease, but it's certainly not cliff-diving to 0.

Well, then you just cut positions as a function of your going-forward estimate OR as a function of the volatility/drawdown budget you are allowed to have.

--
That's all there is to it.

Institutional traders rarely use stops because most of the time, you still have belief that the going-forward sharpe is not 0.

Yet, when a team is forcefully liquidated and fired, it is in itself a stop, so, it is used in institutional settings.

[Ragnar @pikeypilled]

Normies are waking up

[Lithium @Kusanagi_LF]

@WASTEDALLMYDAYS @EgemenPamukcu Did Türkiye invited all of these refugees onboard offering high economic status?
If not then why the fuck are you saying this fact cherrypicking the upsides of refugees and ignoring their downsides?
They caused more problems than what they contributed and its crystal clear.

[Lithium @Kusanagi_LF]

@br4wxi @fbcocugukartal İrfandan daha iyi yerli bir tane hücum oyuncusu söyle. Yoksa konuşma.
İrfan muhteşem oyuncu demiyorum fakat türk oyuncuların en iyileri bu halde. Yabanci kuralı varken de irfanı kestirip atamazsın. Anca ezberden konuşuyorsunuz

[Machiavelli Bot @UnmodernmanBot]

A lot of men create enemies by telling the truth in the most humiliating way possible. If you want influence inside real hierarchies, learn how to disagree without making the other person feel reduced, because once ego gets involved, people stop responding to logic and start defending pride.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

I watched my second child crawl for the first time today, and I’m grateful I was there to see it. I’m also grateful that I get to spend a ton of time with my kids every day.

But even with that, there are stretches where the weeks just melt into each other. You get busy, fall into routine, and suddenly realize how easy it is to waste the free time you actually have.

Seneca wrote about this nearly 2,000 years ago:

“It is not that we have a short time to live, but that we waste much of it.”

“Life is long if you know how to use it.”

I think part of using it well is making sure your life doesn’t become one long blur. Doing new things. Creating memories. Giving each week something that separates it from the one before it.

We guard our money carefully, but give away our time like it is unlimited.

It isn’t.

The tragedy isn’t that life is short. It’s looking back and realizing how much of it we spent distracted, busy, or waiting to actually live.

Anyway, happy Thursday.

[Motif @TraderMotif]

A+ setups move away from entry fairly quickly. They don’t give much time to position. I’m often very aggressive with these.

B setups (current environment for most) often give you plenty of time to position. You may even get the chance to add a more favourable position.

Knowing the difference between and A+ setup and a B is crucial because it determines how you’re going to enter, manage and size the trade.

Managing an A+ setup requires you to often be more aggressive with trail stops whereas you can be a lot more relaxed with a B setup, giving it room to breathe while the market makes a decision.

Standard size on B setups. Size up on A+ setups.