@illscience on @lennysan's pod, on why consumer AI hasn't happened yet:
"I don't think it's a model or a capability challenge. It's just a product design challenge."
It's the most confident line in the episode. I think it's wrong, and the evidence is a story he told about his own son twenty minutes earlier.
lovely + dense convo w @lennysan re: "what if it works":
- decentralization + everything is working: this product cycle has more winners and more ways to win, yet many in SV are oddly nursing a dark fantasy about being outside the lightcone
- climbing the ambition ladder: shipping your bad ideas to discover your good ideas + hyper-local expressions of ambition like making the NHS as good as an iPhone
- changing the narrative around machine intelligence: making important things like education and healthcare cheap, unbundling learning from institutions and status from credentials
- what's working in consumer: coding agents, personal agents like Town / Instinct / Grok Bots / ChatGPT Work, and entertainment across creativity / gaming / companionship
- coding as an activity vs an outcome: perhaps coding is more like reading than writing; a fulfilling way to learn / explore / spend time more than a goals based task
loved the conversation + love to hear what you think!
Our app @Calo_Official is coming this month. A year of sitting in other people's kitchens first, and here's the failure mode I keep finding.
A parent decides their kid should see a dentist. It can't be settled on the spot. You want to research who's good with children, check who takes your insurance, ask two friends. Neither parent can close it alone, so it becomes "let's find a time to talk about this."
That time never arrives. It surfaces again a year later.
Nobody forgot. Both parents cared. It slid because they were being conscientious. A parent who cared less would have booked the first dentist on Google that week.
Notice what has to be true to catch this. Nothing happened. No message, no cancelled event, no missed deadline. The error signal is the absence of an action nobody ever committed to, and it shows up twelve months late.
We want to help parents who show up every day and try to do right by their families.
@SinaHartung If it wasn’t just a public availability or a reservation through brokers, but actually a private inventory, I’d love an invite if you get any!
I’ve been using Instinct a lot too, and this really resonates.
I keep wondering: if every serious model provider ships this like you said, what’s the real moat?
And how does it move beyond tech adopters to earn mainstream consumer trust? Maybe those are really the same question.
Have you ever listened to someone talk for an hour and realized they said almost nothing, while someone else says three sentences that stay with you for days?
I felt this strongly at a dinner last night with investors and AI researchers.
That gap made me think about signal to noise ratio.
The term comes from signal processing. Quant investors borrowed it decades ago to separate real information from market noise.
Simple definition: signal is anything that updates you. Noise is everything else.
Some people hear one comment or read one piece of news and quickly form a view of an entire company. The conclusion sounds confident, but the reasoning behind it is often thin.
The people with the highest signal were usually more careful. They mostly shared observations from their own experience, and what they saw was often quite different from what an outsider would expect. They rarely tried to explain companies they only knew from the outside.
It also made me realize that the people who speak the most are not necessarily the people with the most to say.
Next time I host a dinner, I will make a point of asking the quieter people what they think. They might have been the most interesting people at the table🤣
@whoisnnamdi VC keeps pulling future expectations forward. Seed is expected to look like Series A, and Series A is priced for Series B outcomes. Soon there will be only two stages: seed and unicorn.
@TownAI This is cool. How well do Townies maintain context across a long group thread, especially when people change their minds or have conflicting preferences?
@CamiloBAcosta If you’re building from conviction rather than chasing what’s hot and fundable, you should expect to be misunderstood for a long time. Great founders learn to endure that loneliness.